The Haven

1/21/2012 - Dusting Things Off

2012-01-20T12:30:00.002-05:00

Been about six months or so since I last wrote anything, lots of stuff has happened personally which I really can't and/or probably won't go in to. I was compelled to make a mention of some wintry weather that looks headed our way. There's still a good amount of complication to it, and things could pan out in a couple of different ways.

The short version is that we've got a mixed bag of wintry precipitation headed our way. You will note that I said wintry, not snowy or icy. Wintry, which typically encompasses an all of the above type scenario.

A low pressure system is heading our way. We already have some pretty good cold air in place, so at least to start it's going to be snow. As the low gets more organized and brings in some warm air aloft, the upper levels will change to mixed precipitation with the lower levels still cold enough to support things falling to the ground as frozen.

The duration of frozen precipitation depends on how much cold air gets dammed in. Cold air damming (CAD) for our area is when cold air gets wedged in between the mountains and the coast. By rights, based on the air mass, it should be warmer but with the interaction of those two air masses, some cold gets wedged in. As cold air is heavier than warm air, it gets wedged in below, so things that fall as rain freeze on the way down (sleet) or at the surface (freezing rain).

What's going to happen tonight? Sometime after midnight, things will start as snow. Depending on your location, you could see as much as an inch or two depending on how long the cold air persists. Some time in the early morning hours, there will be a transition from southeast to northwest to sleet and freezing rain. Depending on how the CAD plays out, which is always modeled extremely poorly, there should eventually be a transition to all rain.

Current model guidance has it that it should be all rain by mid-morning for most of the immediate metro area, with places farther out (like Frederick or the WV panhandle) staying mostly frozen for the bulk of the event. I have a hunch the CAD sticks around longer than modeled and wouldn't be surprised if the early watches and advisories that come out underplay things a little. Reading the NWS forecast discussions, they seem to be leaning towards warmer temperatures than guidance is currently indicating. I have my doubts, but I've been wrong before.

The reason I have my doubts is this air mass has already been colder than modeled, which might lend support for a longer burst of snow initially, and more persistent frozen precipitation. Also, some early indications are that the system may track a little farther south, which would allow the cold air to persist a little longer.

If things change significantly, I'll let you know. For now, I wouldn't expect more than an inch or two of snow/sleet, and probably a tenth of an inch of ice in the immediate metro area. That should be enough for an advisory. If it looks like it could be closer to two tenths of an inch or a quarter inch, that would bump it up to warning criteria. I also wouldn't be surprised to see west Loudoun and Frederick counties see that much anyway.

Irene - 8/25/2011 - (One of Two?)

2011-08-25T17:30:00.001-04:00

Quick late afternoon update before I head home.

Irene has shown some signs of weakening today and it's no longer really expected that she'll attain category four status. To that end, the overall guidance today has actually shifted back to the west, which shows a landfall south of the Outer Banks, an inland route until an exit back offshore north of Norfolk. Irene would then track along the coast and make a second landfall in New Jersey/New York City(!) as a weak to moderate category two.

I don't buy it.

I totally get that Irene is weakening. She was going to go under a decent amount of shear today and I think this little blip is primarily due to an eyewall replacement cycle that is periodic with hurricanes. It could also be a sign of general weakening, and based on her position she may not re-attain the strong category three status she once held.

If she does continue to stay a little weaker, I expect the track to go back a little bit further to the east. This kind of track would call for initial landfall closer to OBX and Kill Devil Hills and a second landfall more likely between Eastern Long Island and Cape Code, with a third landfall possible somewhere between Maine and Canada. Even if she does regain some of her strength back, I still expect a slight eastward jog than what the current forecast track is calling for, just not as pronounced.

Looking at overall model performance and verification, it looks like the GFS has been the most on-target, and it also appears as if the GFS is taking a more easterly course, so there is some support for this theory. More models are a bit further west than this, but not but a whole lot.

If, and it's a very big if, New York is hit by Irene, the impacts could be severe. The always excellent Jeff Masters has this to say.

NOAA's SLOSH model predicts that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds could drive a 15 - 20 foot storm surge to Manhattan, Queens, Kings, and up the Hudson River. JFK airport could be swamped, southern Manhattan would flood north to Canal Street, and a surge traveling westwards down Long Island Sound might breach the sea walls that protect La Guardia Airport. Many of the power plants that supply the city with electricity might be knocked out, or their docks to supply them with fuel destroyed. The more likely case of a Category 1 hurricane hitting at high tide would still be plenty dangerous, with waters reaching 8 - 12 feet above ground level in Lower Manhattan. Given the spread in the models, I predict a 20% chance that New York City will experience a storm surge in excess of 8 feet that will over-top the flood walls in Manhattan and flood the subway system. This would most likely occur near 8 pm Sunday night, when high tide will occur and Irene should be near its point of closest approach. Such a storm surge could occur even if Irene weakens to a tropical storm on its closest approach to New York City.

I'll have more on this tonight after the game, but this could be one of the most severe storms to slam the east coast. There's a chance it weakens enough (like Isabel in 2003) where the impacts are lessened significant than what was initially thought, but a hurricane hitting that far north in an area where people aren't used to it is a big deal.

Irene - 8/24/2011

2011-08-24T23:00:00.014-04:00

I have received multiple requests for updates on Irene, and I actually started providing them on Tuesday. I promised that I would call out Meghan as the first requester.

Obligation fulfilled.

To Meghan on Tuesday, I laid out three possible scenarios, all of which were possible at the time. The first was a southerly course with a landfall in South Carolina. I rated this as unlikely. The second was a landfall in North Carolina, south of the Outer Banks. The third was a brushing of the Outer Banks. My prediction on Tuesday was a blend of options two and three.

Not too shabby for five days out, better than the NHC at any rate.

So far, this hurricane has been nearly textbook. It helps that the NHC has been running about three missions a day into the eye of the hurricane, and another five to seven around it. That provides excellent data for all of the models to do with it what they will. Therefore, most of the one to three day forecasts have not only had very good precision, they have been remarkably accurate.

The problem is in that five day range where there can be a range of 200-300 miles difference in predicted landfall. We know a lot about hurricanes, but not everything.

The trend for the past four days or so has been a gradual turn to the north and east from the predicted long-range tracks. I thought there would be a limit to those changes, and it appears to have been reached. The current three day forecast calls for Irene to clip the Outer Banks (perhaps with landfall) Saturday night as a strong category two to a moderate category three. I think it more likely to be a weak to moderate category three.

What does this mean for a forecast? Avoid the coast. Seriously. Don't go there. If you're anywhere along the coast from Myrtle Beach to Newfoundland, stay away. Even surfers should avoid the water. The rip currents are nothing to mess with, and that is starting shortly.

Normally when hurricanes get above North Carolina, there's not as much warm water to work with so they quickly fall back from a hurricane to a tropical storm. The key word today is "normally". This year does not follow that definition.

Water temperatures along the coast are anywhere from 2-2.6 degrees Celsius above average, which means Irene can stay a hurricane until approximately Long Island. So after its brush with the Outer Banks, Irene is going to be tracking up the coast drawing on a deep reservoir of warm water. It's going to be big, powerful, and have a ton of moisture to work with. Areas along the coast could easily see over six inches of rain, maybe even ten or twelve.

Depending upon the overall track, DC and Baltimore look to only be in for less than two inches. Coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York and New England could see hurricane force winds and perhaps require an ark to navigate the waters. It's very likely that inland in those areas will see at least tropical storm winds. In fact, Irene looks to make landfall close to Cape Cod as a category 1 hurricane. Yeah, Massachusetts.

Tropical Storm force winds will extend 150 miles or so from the center, hurricane force probably 60 miles or so. Earlier today the forecast track was still a little out to sea such that the Outer Banks were only going to get brushed, but I think there's a decent shot at landfall there (briefly). The models have come around to support this idea.

Overall, exact timing and details are yet to be finalized, but up and down the coast, it's going to be a wet weekend. Coastal Carolina could make up for their moderate to severe drought just this weekend alone. No such like for Texas. If things change, I'll probably end up posting about it. There will be a lot more refinements made over the next couple of days, and an exact track up the coast probably won't be refined fully until Friday.

Stay tuned.

Metro Stories

2011-07-31T01:30:00.000-04:00

As part of my newish responsibilities at work I generally take the DC metro jn to work almost daily.

The general unreliability of the system not withstanding, I see several things that do a fairly good job of making me feel remarkably helpless and small: the sheer number of the homeless.

Two circumstances in particular are standing out tonight, where it is currently 1 AM and I have nobody else to talk to.

The first was on Friday.

Almost every week coming home in the evenings I come across this one gentleman. He's short and inevitably hunched over something. Has to be an older gentleman, can't tell if it's due to age or circumstances. Regardless, he's there week in and week out with his santa hat wishing everybody a merry Christmas, and a happy new year. Not only that, but he also kept proclaiming that "God is good".

Judging by his voice and speech patterns, it seemed as if he may have been mildly retarded. That is of course no ckmmentary Kn any of what he was saying, but new years in July was a little far-fetched.

Normally I don't carry cash on me during the week, but that day I had a buck, so I gave it to him. Passed him who knows how many times and I was finally able to give him something.

The second was a couple of weeks ago. I was heading in to a station downtown and passed by them without realizing what was going on. Mother and two children. Oldest sitting on the floor by mom, but not too close. Youngest can't have been more than one plus change and still in a stroller.

And I couldn't do anything about it. More importantly, I didn't. And I so, so wish I had. I have not been able to get that image out of my head and it almost brings me to tears. That's not the life a young family should be forced to deal with. Lisa and I help adopt some families during the holidays, but it's not enough. I regret every moment since I passed them and didn't offer to help, or buy a meal, or give some change, or anything.

I felt powerless to help these people. From a position of which I have, I should be able to do more. I think I need to. Because I can't possibly see children like that in person. I'm not strong enough, and I don't want to be. I hope one day I can, because those kids didn't do anything wrong. They don't deserve this, and I need to believe that what small things I do make a difference.

I don't want to think of the alternatives. Everytime I do, I close my eyes and look at those kids. I look at Nikhil and just break all over again.

A Brief Appraisal of the Mobile OS Market: WP7 Edition

2011-05-15T00:00:00.005-04:00

I had all of this really great stuff prepped for the fourth part in the ongoing series of A Brief Appraisal of the Mobile OS Market. The first three having covered, of course, iOS (although this one's slightly sarcastic), Android, and webOS. I had originally planned on going after RIM's Blackberry contingent.

They were the choice of crackberry addicts the world over, until they got out-innovated by just about everybody else. But, with the recent purchase of Skype for a whopping $8.5 billion by Microsoft, their largest ~~merger~~ purchase ever...

Who am I to not take advantage of current events?

The purchase is somewhat indicative of Microsoft's overall mobile strategy. However, before we get into all of that, let's examine the position Microsoft is coming from.

Microsoft originally broke into the market with some iteration of Windows CE (which stands for Embedded Compact, don't ask me where you go from EC to CE). This morphed into Windows Mobile, and the latest version, Windows Phone 7. Every single iteration until WP7 was made for styluses, just like Palm. This decision was based on the overall prevalence of resistive touchscreens (or screens that relied on pressure for input). Apple came in with the iPhone and a capacitive touchscreen (or screens that relied on electrostatic touch from fingers as opposed to resistive pressure) that worked quite well.

Game changer. Microsoft did not innovate nearly fast enough. They had the business market pretty well split up with RIM while Palm had been maintaining well enough in the consumer space.

All of a sudden you've got a mobile operating system built from the ground up meant to work with fingers instead of having to constantly grope for a stylus. And three years later they were still relying on the stylus far too heavily. In short, they got their asses handed to them.

So, Microsoft decides to go back to the drawing board: build something completely from scratch and try to make it nice and pretty and shiny, just like Apple. If you've read the last two posts (webOS and Android), you'll see just how large an impact Apple has had on the market, but they have their own problems. What they came up with was WP7, and it's not half bad. Honestly.

Their problem is the same one that every late entrant has: developer support. You can make the best OS in the world, and it's going to suck if you can't do anything with it. Ask Palm (now HP) with webOS. Ask the die-hard Apple fans with OS X (IN NO WAY AM I PERSONALLY SAYING OS X IS THE BEST DESKTOP OS). But, it's Microsoft. And they haven't done horribly, better than Palm/HP at any rate.

Nowhere near the 200k apps for Android, or however many iOS is up to (400k? 500k?). In fact, if I recall correctly, WP7 is somewhere around 10k apps?

Well we've covered history, and kind of touched on where they are. Where are they going?

Unlike everybody else, Microsoft is pretty much eschewing the tablet market. Personally I don't know that it's the greatest idea in the world, but whatever. What they are trying to do is quite interesting. They're doing what they tried to do with the desktop OS ecosystem: control every core experience you're going to have.

In the desktop OS market, that meant the base OS, office productivity, browser, e-mail, whatever. But if you move beyond the desktop OS, and it's a place that seemingly the rest of the industry is going, you need to think bigger. And Microsoft is doing just that: by attacking your living room and mobile experience with an entire ecosystem of devices.

Ringing any bells yet? No? Allow me to enlighten you.

The Xbox 360 is far more than just a game console. With Kinect, MS is pushing the envelope with how you experience entertainment. Xbox Live allows them a personal portal into your TV free from any third party. There are plans to actually get them to operate as set-top-boxes for TV. Xbox Live also happens to be fully integrated into your WP7 experience. In Skype, Microsoft continues the full frontal assault on entertainment and communication by controlling video conference calling and VOIP telephony.

Can you not now fathom some way where Skype can be included into Xbox Live?

Let's go one step further. Microsoft is going head to head against Google and others in the cloud services area. They already have a strong foothold in the enterprise market with the Office group of products, but their share is eroding. With Lync and Office Communicator, they've been pushing into VOIP and video conferencing. Problem is, it doesn't scale well at all. See where Skype fits in there?

Bringing this bad boy full circle, up until a year ago or so, Microsoft was kind of lost. They didn't have much direction if any at all. Just a vague idea of where they wanted to go. I think at this point they have a better idea than they did, but it's still not terribly well defined. Two weeks ago, I would've told you they're still targeting the consumer market hardcore with all of the Xbox Live integration and the Nokia partnership. The Skype acquisition places things into a totally different light.

They realized they can't cede the enterprise mobile market to the likes of Apple, Android, HP or RIM, so it's once again become a two-front war for Microsoft, and they're going to be trying it with an Android like approach. They're focusing on building up strategic hardware partnerships and cutting crazy deals to get their platform on as many devices as possible. Case in point, the aforementioned deal with Nokia. The deal basically means Nokia is giving up on its own homegrown OS (in Symbian for phones and MeeGo for larger devices) and going exclusively with WP7 in exchange for billions.

This approach actually has the analysts at IDC, Gartner and a bunch of other research firms believing that by 2015, the Windows Phone family will be the number one global mobile operating system. Without a tablet presence I'm not entirely certain that will be the case. Is it possible? Sure. But at least one or two other entrants will have to drop out, and that's not looking terribly likely at this point. Apple's going nowhere. Google's pushing the envelope trying to get Android onto any device that can run code. HP is the largest manufacturer of computing hardware and has an enormous enterprise presence. RIM's the only real weakling in the bunch, for reasons which will be discussed later.

If all of this explanation seems like kind of a mess, it's because it is. It's pretty indicative of the direction Microsoft has taken under the stewardship of Ballmer. Except for their entertainment division, Microsoft has lost marketshare in just about every area they compete in. And the entertainment division had to forgo profits for years before they were able to do anything with it. Amusingly enough, it appears as if it's the entertainment division that's going to have to lead the way for Microsoft in what will likely become the post-PC world of the next five to ten years.

A Brief Appraisal of the Mobile OS Market: webOS Edition

2011-05-05T00:00:00.001-04:00

Gone through iOS and Android, and while webOS is certainly not #3 in marketshare, it's still #1 in my heart.

First, a brief history. Well it's not really that brief. Palm basically pioneered the first mobile devices in the PDA (non-cell phone) space. When it came to the transition to phones, they did well for awhile. Microsoft also had strong contenders, more power and a familiar operating system experience.

And then Apple came along with their fancy capacitive touch screens and finger friendly OS.

A year or two after Apple started doing its thing, Palm, having gone through several corporate transitions (divesting itself of its hardware divisions, getting back into the hardware game, etc.) decided they were going to come out with a new OS from the ground up. They decided it was going to be built on web standards. Application development was going to be easy. You could multitask. It was going to be finger friendly.

As it turns out, they delivered. In almost every way, webOS is a superior experience to iOS and Android. It's intuitive and powerful. It's also extremely open to customization by third parties.

Here's where Palm failed though: marketing. If you saw any of their earlier ads with the creepy Palm lady, you would know exactly where I'm coming from, and the marketing only got worse from there.

First of all, they had an exclusivity agreement with Sprint for the first six months. They had a lot of success on Sprint, but it was a mistake signing on exclusively with a third place carrier which was suffering from its own issues (poor customer service and an ill-advised Nextel acquisition).

Verizon comes along to start selling the Pre (Palm's first webOS phone) and pretty much fumbles the launch. Simple enough reason too: the Motorola Droid came out at almost the exact same time. Verizon had a better agreement with Motorola and store reps were too busy focusing on Android. Plus, Google and Motorola actually know how to run an advertising campaign with good branding.

The launch on AT&T was only marginally better a few months later. The marketing was also only marginally better. And it was at this point, that with Google coming out with gorgeous new hardware and superphones, and Palm still running the same, dated, old equipment that Apple came out with their next revision.

Palm was too slow to react, and all of their differentiators were pretty much gone and/or ignored. So they had to sell themselves, and did so to HP. There were eight different suitors for Palm, but HP had the highest offer and won the sweepstakes.

What does an acquisition do? Slows the product cycle down even further. It took them over a year and a half to finally release a new revision of their hardware. Problem was it was just barely current from a specification standpoint. Palm's marketshare continued to drop and they became less relevant. Less marketshare means less mindshare, which means less application support.

How many applications are out there for iOS and Android? Hundreds of thousands each. Palm? Five thousand. Now it doesn't matter that probably 60% of those applications are complete and utter crap (seriously, how many fart applications does a guy need?). But there are also a lot of good, well written applications out there for the other platforms. Why would you go after a platform with roughly three percent of the installed base of a competing platform?

Exactly.

So that's an appraisal of where they are. Where are they going?

HP has a lot of cash. Based on the spending spree they've been going on, it's quite the war chest. What they want to be more like is Apple. Proprietary systems, their own in-house operating system running on all of HP's hardware. Everything from HP printers to phones to tablets to PCs. Lest we forget, HP has the largest marketshare in PC sales and printer sales.

Can they out-Apple Apple? Hell no, at least not while Steve Jobs is still around. But they're sure going to have a good try at it.

In eleven days they're coming out with their first new phone in a different form factor in six months. Problem is it's only on AT&T and it's still barely adequate from a specifications standpoint. Cheap though at $99. The next new phone is the Pre3, the third revision of Palm's flagship. It's going to be one hell of a powerful phone too. Not a dual core monster, but it's clocked faster than anything else out there, with an OS optimized for that speed. But where HP is really going to need to make moves is in the tablet market which happens to still have some competition left in it.

What's really cool about what they're going to try to do is complete integration across all of their product lines. The printers, phones and tablets will all work together. Want to make a video call? Use your tablet to make a call via your cell phone. Want to transfer a bunch of open web pages or applications from your phone to your tablet? Touch one with the other and it gets transferred automagically.

Not to mention that the tablet is extremely powerful in its own right with a dual core processor and quite impressive graphics.

But what about the big weakness of webOS: application support? HPs war chest will come in handy there as well. They've created a new application SDK that allows users to create applications across all of their products seamlessly (also adjusting for different resolutions with minimal fuss), and once again with open web technologies. Furthermore, they're planning on sending developer ninja teams (for lack of a better term) out to various sites as needed to get application development kick-started. They get out there and help developers get started and then turn everything over to them and let them manage it for free.

What's really unique about HP is how they embrace the homebrew community, to the point where they've donated server equipment to the community to allow them to host patches and applications. At this point, HP's going to do whatever they can to build some support behind webOS.

They definitely have a superior operating system. Multitasking, usability, independent support, good hardware that's coming out, product integration. What they're lacking is developer support.

So they're going to try to pull an Apple. I don't see much success in the approach, mainly because Apple's already done it, and they don't have Apple's marketing. But they're sure going to try, and I'll likely end up with an HP tablet and phone in the future.

A Brief Appraisal of the Mobile OS Market: Android Edition

2011-04-23T22:00:00.001-04:00

And we're back. This time we're going to go over Android, which is (depending on who you talk to) the first or second most popular mobile operating system. Recent estimates put the smartphone marketshare pretty much up for grabs between either iOS or Android. For tablets though, it's almost all iOS, to the tune of 90%. Samsung's Galaxy tablets come in at around 6%, Archos at 3%, "Other" at 1%.

Android's big problem is fragmentation, something Google's working on rectifying. As my work phone, I've got Android, and there just really isn't the same kind of polish there. When you're looking at creating Android apps, you've got to be concerned about over a hundred different pieces of hardware (no exaggeration), which makes testing a wee bit on the difficult side.

But it's the next biggest competitor to iOS. And the reason for it is it's free for manufacturers to use. Comparing the two platforms is a case study in two completely different approaches, and it amazingly mirrors the PC market pretty closely.

With iOS, Apple controls the entire ecosystem. Start to finish. They have their hardware, they control what applications get released. They control distribution. They control pricing. It is the penultimate in walled gardens. Once you're in there, you're stuck. This is pretty similar to what Apple's approach is with their desktop and laptop approach, as OS X only runs on approved hardware released and controlled from Apple.

Android on the other hand can run on most any phone as long as the specs are up to snuff, they just have to be partners with Google. In some cases, they'll even split search revenue from those devices with the manufacturers. Licensees don't have to pay to install the OS, and they're free to customize it as they will. Samsung, HTC and Motorola all have their own customized skins to do with Android what they will. The impacts on performance are varied, but it puts a nice skin on something that's a little plain.

From a feature comparison, Apple wins on apps. Android wins on flexibility and multitasking. Although personally, while I don't like how either OS handles the multitasking (webOS wins hands down, and we'll go over that later), given the choice between the two Android has what could be considered more "true" multitasking. Apple's multitasking is really pretty much a joke. Only certain applications can run simultaneously, and they have to be approved. Otherwise it's more of a suspended animation type scenario: moving between applications, ones that were running are basically paused in favor of what you're currently using. I kind of feel like that's how Android's multitasking is, just with fewer restrictions.

There's no doubt though that with the latest versions of Android, Google's gunning for Apple. Android 3.0 (code name Honeycomb) is more tablet focused, and therefore a little cleaner and multitasking friendly. Google's also going to be locking down on the minimum requirements to cut back on the crazy fragmentation going on. The Xoom (by Motorola) and latest versions of the Galaxy by Samsung, coupled with the coming HTC tablets are looking like strong contenders.

Apple, however, is not stupid. Far from it. They see the coming boom in tablets (since they created the market) and have already begun to differentiate themselves. All of the Android tablets are touting their specs and speed. Apple's focus has, and will be on usability. Say what you will about Apple (and I've said a lot about what I don't like, which is almost everything), but focusing on usability means you're operating on their terms.

They're acting as if they are attempting to rise above the fray of the common tablets jockeying for position based on such paltry things as processor speeds and memory. Why even worry about it when you can just get an Apple where everything just works? Bear in mind, I'm not saying I buy it for even one second, but it's the approach they're taking. And it's a bloody good one.

I think there's a lot of potential with Android, and right now they're the biggest challenger. Most projections have Android maintaining a lead in the smartphone space, and I totally buy it. The big wild card is where the tablet market is going to go, and there are other factors to be considered there as well, which I'll go into more detail in later installments when I talk about webOS, Windows Phone 7 and Blackberry.

A Brief Appraisal of the Mobile OS Market: iOS Edition

2011-04-19T00:00:00.014-04:00

I was in a business-y mood this evening, so we're going to get down to business.

I feel like, in general, when it comes down to it, mobile OS operating systems are a lot like religion. You buy into one particular OS, and boom, you're in. It's an entire ecosystem. You've got a whole culture and way of doing things around your choice. There are others with whom you'll be socially networking on the same platform. You've got your locations with which to accessorize, mingle and learn more about your chosen OS.

I even know many Apple users who claim to have reached Nirvana! Kurt Cobain included (thanks iTunes!).

But let's face it, there's a lot out there to be gained about being open to all of the world's mobile OSs. Different lessons to be learned, different ways of achieving the same goal. Complete interconnectedness with the world around us. Communication with our own personal group of higher beings.

OK, so I made most of that stuff completely up. It was satirical. Or was it farcical? Whatever it was, it was meant in pure, unadulterated jest. Those of you who may have felt a little offended about the religiosity when compared with something as earthly as a smartphone or tablet, mea culpa.

Except the bit about Apple. That's real.

Anyway, there are a handful of players in this market, and they've each taken an interesting approach. Some, I think, will be more successful than others. Some already are. Some won't be.

So we'll start off with the biggest and most beloved (and hated). Yup. The fruit company. Apple. As much as Palm pioneered the space a decade ago, Apple came in and completely redefined it. Apple's currently relying on a completely closed ecosystem where they control everything. They are the gatekeeper and keymaster. One does not need to engage the services of a friendly, neighborhood Ghostbuster to tell you that's a bad idea. You just need to look for the Stay Puft Marshmallow man to confirm your worst fears.

Want to buy an app? Go through Apple. Want to buy a book through an app? OK, go through Apple, and then go through Apple again.

They went gangbusters in the smartphone market, and just when they were starting to tail off, they go and do something crazy. Instead of competing in an already established market, they say, "screw it" and just go create a new one with the iPad. I won't lie, I doubted what they were trying to do at first. "It's just a big phone," I said. "It'll never be a replacement for anything," I blithered on.

Now, it's true, I said those things. I also said it would be mind-numbingly successful while defying any and/or all rules of logic. What I hadn't quite had a firm grasp on at the time was this: Apple pretty much knows it can't compete in already established markets. Exhibit A would be the PC market. When you have to adopt the same architecture that your hated rivals of 20+ years did to get to a 10% marketshare, that's pretty rough. There's only so much a shiney white box with fancy software for $2000 will get you, and street cred's not part of it. This isn't the 80s where one could walk down the street with a boombox roughly the size of a healthy, mid-sized kangaroo, whilst oozing cool. I don't even think it was considered that cool back then.

I mean, of course, the boom-box, not the kangaroo. Walking down the street with a healthy, mid-sized kangaroo is cool no matter where you are. And let's not even get started on the puddles of cool ooz, because that would be taking an already tired joke one step too far.

So what do you do if you can't compete in established markets? The same thing any other kid in the playground would do if he couldn't bring his toys to play with the other kids. You pull up your own patch of the blacktop, bust out your own toys and start having some fun. And that's what Steve Jobs did. He created brand new markets, and therefore brand new demand in which to pimp his wares. And he was naturally first out of the gate each time. Since he created the market, the hope would be he'd get there first. It's a safe assumption.

And you're now starting to see what Mr. Jobs had in mind all those years ago when he climbed upon Silicon Valley and gave unto the people of California his ten commandments. The gist of it is something like this: declare Steve Jobs to be the one true God, prohibit having other goods before him, and making or worshiping idols (anybody see that little droid alien?); threaten punishment for those who reject him (bricked phones and withdrawn apps!) and promise love for those who love him (upgrades!); forbid blasphemy of the Lord Steve Job's name; demand observance of the Sabbath and honoring one's parents (no commentary here); prohibit murder, adultery, theft, false testimony, and coveting of one's neighbor's goods in the name of iOS.

Now that I think about it, I may have gotten a few of those facts incorrect. Ah yes, it was Moses who was involved on Mount Sinai, delivering a message to the people of Israel. A few of those commandments may have been mistranslated or misinterpreted along the way.

Apologies to you all.

What can I say? We were using AT&T.

Stay tuned for the next installment, where we tackle Google's Gooey Desserts of Android: these are not the droids you're looking for!

Updates

2011-04-18T23:00:00.001-04:00

Ouch, I'm averaging something like one post a month over the past three. Ah well.

Things have been happening, events occurring. Were there but twenty-five hours in a day instead of the customary twenty-four, well, honestly it probably wouldn't be all that different. Who am I kidding?

The past few weeks I've been thinking about what direction I wanted to take this. I've been writing here for something along the lines of four years now. I was a fiend at first, but gradually the post count trailed off. The last couple of winters were extremely focused on the weather, and not much else. I am kicking around some ideas of what to do, where to go, how to be.

The first, of course, is with a name change. To be honest, I never liked the name. I've since settled on a couple that I'm much happier with, and which are blissfully open. But it depends on what I want to do. I think I'll likely stick with Blogspot, because it's easy, and domain name registration is a paltry $10. I can deal with ten bucks. Perhaps I won't go out to lunch one day, and bam, there's my ten bucks.

Maybe it's more like a day and a half.

Regardless, I think changes are afoot. Despite the lack of posts lately, it doesn't mean I haven't been thinking. I've been yearning for an outlet somewhere, because as previously mentioned, things are happening. I'm hoping to plan out my posts a little better going forward, and improve on my writing style. Typically, I shoot from the hip and don't really think before I write. As such, the tone is very much conversational.

The dastardly accusations have been made that I write like I speak. Alas, if only I were innocent of the charges.

Anyway, expect some things to change. I'll still shoot from the hip rather frequently, but I'm hoping to write things that are more planned and thought out in the future. Also, expect to have to update your bookmarks. I don't know when that change will be coming, or how long I can keep the old blogspot.com address, but whatever. I'm sure the more resourceful of you will either figure out where its gone, or, you know, ask me in person.

An Open Letter to Winter

2011-03-29T12:00:00.001-04:00

Dear Winter,

Traditionally, you and I have gotten along pretty great. We had some great times last year, what with the massive blizzards and the feet of snow. It was a treat. What I always wanted.

This year you've been kind of lame. Sure, there was that one storm in January which knocked the power out for a couple of days. There was some thundersnow. Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen, you saw fit to give me. The rest of the season you pretty much ignored me.

I still haven't forgotten about the Boxing Day storm with the big snowhole over me. I don't think I'll be able to get over that one very quickly. Some wounds cut a little deeper, and take a longer time to heal.

The rest of the season it was pretty much just really cold. Don't get me wrong, I like the cold. I'm usually a pretty big fan. But now things are getting a little out of hand. You were gone for most of February, which ruined what is generally regarded as the snowiest month around here.

So what are you doing now? It's the end of March. Springtime. Generally regarded as one of the few times worth being in DC. Why are you still here? Are you trying to make up for all of the opportunity you squandered this season? If so, I think it's a too little too late. I'm pretty much done with you for this season.

I'm tired of the games. I'm tired of the will-it-or-won't-it snow. You have jerked me around once too often this season. It would've been kinder of you to make your way to the door and take a graceful exit instead of this nasty outburst. You're just dragging out the inevitable. And quite frankly, if you ruin the cherry blossoms for me this weekend, well that will have been your final insult this season.

Hopefully we can make it work again next season, because I don't think I'll ever be able to get over you completely.

But right now? It's over. You need to move on. Because I have.

~P

p.s. I know it's been forever since I've written, and there's a lot to say. Unfortunately there are only 24 hours in a day.

1/26/2011: You've Been Warned

2011-01-26T12:00:00.000-05:00

Took the NWS long enough, but they finally put out the warnings for all of the DC Metro area, not just Loudoun/MoCo and points west.

Officially the warning says 5-10, probably a good shot at that, perhaps a little more. Latest guidance has some hard hitting stuff for about 6-9 hours or so, and there's the possibility of 7-10 inches during that period alone. Maybe more? Snowfall rates could approach 2 inches per hour at times.

The Federal Government is closing two hours early today. I would recommend leaving a little before that since I expect things will get started in earnest by 3 at the latest. Traffic's going to stink today.

Oh, and don't be surprised if there are areas around here that see close to a foot. It all depends on where the heaviest bands decide to set up shop.

1/26/2011: Indeed?

2011-01-25T16:00:00.001-05:00

Things are definitely looking up for tomorrow. We've built up a fair amount of run-to-run consistency and things are starting to fall into place. There's a fair amount of data built up, and actually not a whole lot of change from last night with regards to timing.

Yes, boys and girls, for the first time this season I can say that the timing of a storm is essentially unchanged from one day to the next. Shocking, I know.

What I'm now a little more confident in is the possibility of more snow. Last night I mentioned that I was still very guarded when it came to the accumulations despite the models basically showing otherwise. Well, now it's been about four runs or so that has shown a lot of the same stuff.

You already know that there's a Winter Storm Watch out, and that criteria is 5 inches of snow or more. I'm thinking that's likely a safe bet. The big question is how much more above that, and that is highly dependent upon when the changeover from rain to snow actually occurs. Heaviest accumulation is looking like late afternoon into the early overnight hours, and there could be some impressive accumulations in a short amount of time. It's going to be a pretty quick hitter, but it will leave an impact.

So let's talk numbers.

DC:
0-2 inches: 5%
2-4 inches: 20%
4-8 inches: 40%
8-12 inches: 25%
12+ inches: 10%

I don't have the time at the moment to do other areas, so this will have to do for the time being.

1/26/2011: Something to Talk About

2011-01-24T23:30:00.002-05:00

Looks like overall onset has been pushed back a few hours, enough for it to be considered that whatever happens will happen on Wednesday. Not so much on Tuesday.

Local mets are generally calling for either all rain or a snow to rain solution. This is, in the general parlance, what we like to call "wrong". If rain and snow are involved, it'll be the other way around. I'm backing off from my pessimistic all-rain solution for several reasons.

First, it looks like we've reached the northern extent of how this thing can track. Second, as more complete information is fed into the models, it appears development occurs a little earlier. Earlier development means a stronger system by the time it gets up here. With the counterclockwise rotation of a low pressure system, that means the cold air gets drawn in from the north at the same time that warm moisture gets drawn in from the south. And since we're on the northwestern side of this thing, cold air is going to trump the warm, at least for the parts that matter.

So, I'm not saying it's not going to rain. It's likely going to rain in the immediate metro area. The further north and west you get, the less chance there will be of rain, but less precip too. The models, in general, have been lining up some support for this as well.

The overall timeline is something like this. Wednesday morning to early afternoon, some light rain starts. Temperatures above freezing both aloft and likely below as well. Wednesday late afternoon to evening, some heavier precipitation starts, temperatures drop. There will likely be an extended period where snow falls but does not stick to the streets because surface temperatures will remain above freezing until the onslaught of precip cools it down enough. Wednesday night until the early morning hours Thursday, perhaps around dawn, snow, possibly heavy at times.

Several interesting things to take note of. First, this is going to be the really heavy, wet snow. Nothing fluffy. Ideal for sledding and snowballs. Very hard to plow, especially larger quantities. Second, while snowfall ratios are typically 10:1 (inches of snow:inches of liquid), this is probably going to be closer to an 8:1 type scenario. Like I said, wet and heavy. It's basically going to be slush falling from the sky.

Total amounts? Glad you asked. There's still a shot the Valley makes out from this one as it's going to be mostly snow there, but with the evolution in track they're getting less in the way of liquid. Models that just came out have been favoring a 4-8 or 6-10 type solution for the DC area (and that's with about 6-9 hours of light rain to start). I choose to not be so bold just yet. We're still about 36-48 hours from onset of snow, and this is the type of storm where very small changes mean very large differences.

Generally speaking, for the Valley I'm favoring a 3-5 inch type system, immediate metro area (where there will be rain issues) I'm leaning towards a 2-4 incher. Bullseye is likely a little to the east and north of Baltimore (again). Think Philly? Aw hell, I was going to try avoiding it but I might as well do the probabilities for DC at the least.

DC:
Nothing: can't rule it out. 15%
0-2 inches: 25%
2-4 inches: 35%
4-8 inches: 15%
8+ inches: 10%

You can tell that I'm still very guarded with these estimations. Despite the pretty decent model consensus, this winter has just been impossible to nail down properly. I like what I've seen today in that most every model that's come out over the past twelve hours has shown decent stuff for DC. But it's also kind of hard to fathom a significant snowstorm 24 hours after highs in the upper 40s.

I, as ever, continue to reserve the right to be wrong.

1/25/2011: Insert Uncertainty Here

2011-01-22T23:30:00.002-05:00

Will it snow? Won't it snow? Is it time to write the winter off?

Maybe.

I famously proclaimed no more than three days ago that winter was over this year. Dead. Gone. History. Put it in the books as a lost cause. Relegated to the past tense.

There is still a very real chance that this is true, but there are also several reasons why it may not be. Let's look at Tuesday/Wednesday, eh?

Three options, every single one valid. Nothing, snow with precipitation-type issues, or rain. There are a lot of similarities this time with the Boxing Day storm (day after Christmas for the Americans), but also some very large differences.

You'll undoubtedly recall in some of my postmortems analyzing what's gone wrong this winter that the blocking (causing this crazy cold winter we've had) has been exceptionally strong. You'll also recall that the PNA was causing a shift in the storm track which was also messing with things.

Well, the blocking has eased up dramatically and the PNA has shifted to a weakly positive area (not ideal, but better than before). What that means is there's the possibility of a better track. One that's not crazy offshore. I still don't buy this system. Of course it's a lot easier to be pessimistic this winter than not, especially after I've just detailed several reasons why it's wrong for me to be pessimistic.

The pattern this winter has been for 4-6 days before a storm, things look great. We're in the sweet spot. The bullseye. As the storms get nearer and the actual systems get onshore where there is better resolution in the models, they vanish, and the northeast gets a huge amount of snow. We get a dusting, and I get angry.

This particular storm has been particularly crazy. It's a weird pattern and every model has said something different. The one at this range that has traditionally been the best was calling for a complete whiff until 20 minutes ago (and is now calling for 6-10 inches of snow, perhaps with some mixing). The one that will be good in 18-36 hours was calling for all rain (and a lot of it). The European, which has been off all winter, is calling for a decent snowstorm for this area. The Canadians and Brits split the difference.

The more I think about it, the less I like a complete whiff. I think something falls from the sky. I just don't know what yet.

What I do know is this: there's going to be an extremely sharp cutoff line of precipitation. Once again, similar to the Boxing Day storm, 50-100 miles is going to make a difference. Within 100 miles you could see two inches of snow on one end, a foot in the middle, and an inch and a half of rain on the other.

DC should have precipitation-type issues. It could start off as snow (with some cold air dammed in), change over to rain, and then back over to snow after the system is on its way out. Goodness knows the streets need the salt washed off of them.

The thing that has me most intrigued is looking at the ensemble members of the models. The operational mean (which has the most resolution and most closely mimics current conditions) is also the farthest east. The ensemble members, which vary the starting conditions, but also has a lower resolution of data is very much farther west (which yields a heavier snow event, or snow/rain). Something like two-thirds of the ensemble members give us a lot more than the operational mean.

If you've read this far, good for you. I'm finally coming to a conclusion. Almost everything I've said above contradicts with itself at some point, beginning, middle or end. Just like the models.

If I had to pick, based on the seasonal trends I think we're looking at a light snow event. My gut tells me though that there's a better chance this time than previously, but I think we get screwed the other way. Rain. And if we get rain, then the Shenandoah makes out like a bandit, which is far more climatologically accurate for this kind of winter.

Could I be wrong? Highly likely. But anybody who tells you what's going to happen is lying to you anyway.

1/11/2011: Nailed It

2011-01-11T17:00:00.003-05:00

Just a quick note to say that I was absolutely right about this storm completely whiffing. The strong, cold breeze you will feel on your faces tomorrow will be that of a massive whiff.

NWS had us pegged for 2-4 inches this morning with an Advisory. I stuck to my guns and said we'd be lucky to get even around an inch. And the NWS has now dropped their Advisory for south and west of DC while everywhere else around here gets 1-2 inches.

Nailed it.

To further add to my depression, approximately 69% of the country currently has snowpack. DC would not be among those with snow. The only state without snowpack is Florida (OBVIOUSLY DC doesn't count as a state).

I could kick something.

Not surprisingly, the models totally dropped the ball on this system. I haven't seen them mess up this badly for about ten years or so. The northern stream was more amplified than projected, and the southern stream much weaker.

I've been asked a couple of times today why DC is suffering from this snowhole. I believe there are several factors at play. First is the enormous amount of blocking being caused by the AO and NAO. That's also what's been causing the persistence of cold air. The second is that for DC to get in on the good snows, the northern and southern jetstreams have to phase together before the precipitation arrives. Right now the pattern is such that the phasing occurs off the Delmarva which is far too late for anything to happen here in DC.

This pattern is so wacky right now. It's looking like the pattern may break soon. Sometime in the next few days the NAO is predicted to swing neutral, and next week the AO should go neutral as well (before swinging back to negative). That may offer a brief thaw for the area and the chance for us to bust out of this horrendous pattern.

It is also part of the normal Niña climatology for late winter snowstorms. Granted this winter has been pretty much anything but normal, and I fear some of our best chances at snow went to Boston and New York. The thing that pisses me off the most is roughly 65% of the country has received more snow than us. That's just wrong.

P.S. I know it's early for me to say I nailed it because there is a less than 1% chance that things go crazy tonight and we get dumped on, but I'm pretty confident that won't be the case. I'd love to be wrong though.

1/11/2011: Can't Do It

2011-01-10T16:30:00.004-05:00

I just don't know if I can do it anymore this winter. I really don't. The snow-hole is very real.

From DC, travel 75 miles north, south, east or west and you'll see at least 5 inches of snow. Within the DC area itself and within a 50 mile or so radius, expect little if anything. We don't even have Advisories up yet.

That white spot over DC would be where there are no warnings, watches OR advisories. I am THIS close to being done with the winter. So far, there is no end in sight to the combination of AO/NAO blocking or the La Niña relenting. Therefore I see no reason for the pattern to change.

I was hoping this one would be a little different as it's two lows interacting with each other, but the timing is just wrong. Could it still happen? Yes. Will it? I highly doubt it. But I'm seriously considering throwing in the towel on the winter altogether.

1/11/2011: Snowhole Edition

2011-01-09T23:00:00.001-05:00

Looking at some of the satellite imagery from the Boxing Day storm was depressing. I'd show it to you but I just don't have the heart to pull it up and look at it again. From what I remember, the entire eastern seaboard north of South Carolina was white except for a massive hole centered right around DC. It broke my heart.

No, in fact it did worse. Not only did it break my heart, but it took the pieces, gathered them in a neat pile, put them into a blender and pureed. Then it went right down the drain.

So even though I've been watching this particular event for the past week, I haven't said anything about. Primarily because I'm just not at all convinced we're going to get anything significant. I'm not even sure I'm willing to commit to an inch.

Will it snow? Yes.

The setup is something like this: two low pressure systems coming across the country. One is riding the northern jet, the second on the southern jet. The key is where do they meet up and get busy. If they do their thing off the coast of Hattaras, we're in business. If they hook up off Jersey (like currently projected) we'll be lucky to get three inches.

Currently, I lean towards the latter.

The issue is that this winter is pretty much entirely unpredictable. The pattern, and I'm a big believer in patterns, has been formation too far north and off the coast. New York and Boston make out big time (AGAIN), and we get screwed.

The southern jet system is actually dumping more snow over the deep south than they have any right to expect. I find it extremely difficult to see that quite literally 65-70% of the land area east of the Mississippi has seen measurable, decent snow and all we've got is a dusting.

Honestly, I don't have the heart to put out probability of precipitation. I think we get more than an inch, but probably not a whole lot more. I hope it changes.

This is probably as demoralized I've been during a winter. I looked up the five stages of grief last night (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance). I'm still at anger, but I'm working my way towards bargaining. The words "I'm ready for spring" almost came out of my mouth yesterday.

Almost.

Digitization

2010-12-31T00:00:00.001-05:00

A non-weather related post! First one in some time, I know. No worries, more of that will likely be coming later.

More to the point, I have a pretty extensive collection of movies at home. It's not nearly as extensive as it used to be, but it's pretty darn large. Lately I've gotten a lot choosier about what movies I'll actually spend money on because there's a lot of junk there that I just don't watch anymore.

As part of my march into the next decade (which starts tomorrow), I am considering whether to join the vanguard of a connected future. I'm considering digitizing most of my video collection (that I care about at any rate).

The path of least resistance involves a couple of steps. The first is to figure out how to stream everything to my TVs. Quite simply, there's no point in digitizing anything if there's no way to get it anywhere. To that end, I've settled on the excellent Roku Digital Video Players (DVPs). I've had one for a couple of years, and it's only gotten better with the continuous support and upgrades Roku provides. I'm thinking I'm going to get another with some gift cards received for Christmas.

Local streaming, however, is not an in-built feature of the Roku boxes. However, getting it set up only took about a half hour or so. I had to set up a web server accessible internally, and then I had to download a "channel" on the Roku box which streams the content from the server. It's easier than you'd think, and it was working very quickly. FYI, the channel's name is Roksbox.

The other step is to, you know, actually rip the movies. My computer, at the moment, doesn't have a blu-ray drive. Fortunately these have really come down in price, and once again I've got some extra cash and gift cards laying around from Christmas, enough to offset a significant portion of the price.

Then it's just a matter of circumventing all of the copy protection baked into the blu-rays to get the movies onto my hard drive. Unfortunately, high-def content takes up a lot of space, so I'm thinking of getting a 2 TB drive for media storage. The 500 gigs I've got right now won't cut it for long with the movies that I've got.

Anyway, the possibility is tantalizing. The thought of not having to deal with physical media beyond ripping it? Getting high-def content straight to the TV via my own internal network? No more fast forwarding through previews because the movie studios have disabled actual chapter skipping? No more stupid, mandatory things to watch at the beginning of a movie? Just buffer and play?

Yes please.

I'd say the only major concern is that the picture quality likely won't be quite as good. But it might be a sacrifice worth making. I used to firmly be in the camp of blu-ray players and physical media. Not anymore. There is a future, and it likely involves streaming.

12/26/2010: Fringed

2010-12-26T08:30:00.002-05:00

True to form, this storm has basically just sent a big middle finger our way. Looking at the radar and returns, the DC and (to a lesser extent) Baltimore areas have just been carved out with big exceptions to what is the general east coast rule for this storm.

Go south OR north, and you'll see a ton more snow. There will likely be more snow in Columbia, SC than at Dulles airport. And probably six or seven times the amount of snow at JFK than Dulles.

Having said that, since it appears the storm has waffled back east, we're officially getting fringed. With where we are, we'll be lucky to see 3-6 east of DC (you will remember last night the NWS was calling for 6-10 east of DCA). Those around IAD might be lucky with 2-4, but it wouldn't surprise me if it were less. There is an extremely tight cut-off and very slim gradient. There is a substantial part of me that wonders whether we will actually see anything.

Don't know that much has changed for Wilmington, DE though.

I may also recommend steering clear of me for the next couple of days as my bitterness level has reached new heights. Pretty much everywhere but here is getting good to great snow. It would take some kind of Christmas miracle for the snow to become great.

12/26/2010: NO REAL CHANGES

2010-12-25T23:47:00.002-05:00

For those of you clamoring for updates. The news is I don't have one. There appear to have been some small changes to the models which, in fact, would push things out further east. I, however, I don't completely buy 'em. I've tossed at least one out the window of possibilities.

On the whole, I'm OK with my current precip forecasts. Avoid Philly, NYC and Boston. I usually do. You will be well served to heed this advice for the rest of your time, that which remains.

For DC proper, 4-8 seems around right. A little west and you'll get less. A little right and you'll get more. It's the light fluffy accumulating stuff coming up now. And there is recent history that has shown model bunk. But I'll buy some of this stuff. Not willingly, but I'll take my 6 inches because I don't know where else it would go. It's too small to really be of significance, too small to be a nuisance. Oh well.

Oh well. For probabilities on the line, stats quo until the morning.

12/26/2010: ???

2010-12-25T14:45:00.003-05:00

There's still a wiiiiide range of possibilities for areas south of Philadelphia. If you live north and east of Philly, straight through to Boston, brace yourself for one heck of a storm. 12-24+ inches are possible in those areas, with lots of wind.

It generally fits with climatology for a La Niña winter.

Closer to home there has been a lot of variability, even today, around 24 hours prior to onset. Last night's and this morning's runs showed the possibility of DC getting 12-16 inches. Meghan, you were looking more like 18-24.

The next run backed off of that solution a good bit, more to within the 4-8 range for DC. Wilmington can still probably expect around a foot, perhaps more. There's an especially tight gradient associated with this system. At this point, I'm probably going to start throwing the operational models right out the window and stick with the ensemble means. There has been a bit more consistency there, and I think they take into account the different scenarios in a better (and saner) way.

I've had a 3-6 or 4-8 inch call in my head for over a week now, and I think it still makes the most sense for DC. Probabilities? Why not. I have dispensed with the "nothing" scenario now. Remember that there's a steep gradient. Loudoun may get 3 inches while eastern Fairfax may get 7 inches.

DC (with higher amounts the farther east you go):
Less than 3 inches: 30%
4-8 inches: 35%
8-12 inches: 25%
12+ inches: 10%

Wilmington:
Less than 3 inches: 10%
4-8 inches: 20%
8-12 inches: 35%
12+ inches: 35%

What the probabilities should convey to you right now is the extreme uncertainty with the forecast. I said it before, I'll say it again: this has been one of the most challenging forecasts of the last ten years. I've read some comments by meteorologists saying this is one of the most challenging forecasts in the last 30+ years. Variance of 20 miles in track could make a huge difference. Expect more as the event nears.

12/26/2010: Winter Storm Watch?

2010-12-25T08:15:00.003-05:00

Just a couple of quick notes, Winter Storm watch for most areas east of Fauqier. By definition that's 5+ inches. Latest model output is below. More up to date models and images in the coming hours. But right now it's time to open presents and Nikhil's not going to wait much longer.

Merry Christmas to all.

12/26/2010: Model Confusion

2010-12-24T23:30:00.000-05:00

I know I pretty much all but canceled things yesterday, but I also said things could change within 24 hours. And they have. Kind of.

At this point there are really two camps to this thing. The NAM and Euro on one side, the GFS and the ensembles on the other. Given that this thing is 36 hours out, along with other weird developments earlier today, anybody who tells you they know what's going to happen is full of it.

Allow me to present to you both sides of the story.

I give you the NAM output from an hour ago (northeast region).

That's the total accumulated precipitation (in liquid) expected through 72 hours. Now, check out the GFS from about the same time (couldn't find a good northeast image).

That's a pretty remarkable difference. For the DC area, you're talking the difference between no flakes at all, and almost 10 inches of snow. For something that's 36 hours out.

The Euro paints a similar picture to the NAM (at least from earlier today, latest Euro won't be out for another hour and a half), but the ensemble forecasts lean towards the GFS (the ensembles are a collection of 12-20 runs with the data tweaked in small ways to take into account atmospheric instability). The ensembles actually serve as an overall average for what the models output based upon different variables, compared with the operational output which shows what is believed to be the most likely output given one set of atmospheric conditions. They're both useful and tell different stories.

Now, add in to this discussion that apparently some bad and/or incomplete data got into some of the American models this morning. What that means is it's harder to identify trends.

So really, what I'm trying to say, is I think we're going to get somewhere from zero to ten inches of snow in the DC area.

In all seriousness, I still think climatology wins. I don't think the DC area escapes with nothing, but I'm highly doubting ten inches. Let's look at the probabilities. Bear in mind that the further east you go, the higher the totals will rise (in a pretty dramatic fashion). New England, by the way, looks to hit the jackpot in probably four out of five scenarios. Nobody likes them.

DC metro:
None: 30%
Up to 3 inches: 35%
4-8 inches: 20%
8-12 inches: 10%
12+ inches: 5%

Wilmington, DE (for Meghan):
None: 15%
Up to 3 inches: 25%
4-8 inches: 30%
8-12 inches: 20%
12+ inches: 10%

This is probably the most challenging forecast I've had to deal with, and indeed most professional meteorologists that I've seen have been left baffled (not that I'm anywhere remotely close to professional). I don't think I've ever really seen the models flip flop like this and have so much uncertainty within 36-48 hours of onset. I stand a spectacular chance of being fabulously incorrect, and I think the probability spread indicates that. Expect some refinements in the morning with more data. This one's going to be a wild ride.

12/26/2010: Climatology Wins?

2010-12-23T13:15:00.000-05:00

Looking like this one's going to be another dud. Something I'll probably have to get used to this winter. The amazing consistently displayed by some of the models went right out the window. We're pretty much down to within 72 hours of the event, and at this point, there should be a lot more clarity.

And there is. I just don't like what I see.

The Euro was wrong. Three solid days of consistency between runs has just done a very abrupt about-face. It is no longer a question of when we will get snow. It's more a question of if we get snow. And that just sucks.

Climatology was against this even from the very beginning though. It had to thread the needle and dodge some very unpleasant features along the way, and it just doesn't look like it's going to pan out. Naturally I'm still going to be keeping a very close eye on this system.

The issue, quite frankly, is that the system looks like it's developing too far off shore. There's going to be a huge storm, it's just that only the fish are going to get to experience it.

And the fact that the NAM, GFS and Euro are all pretty much in agreement here puts the issue (mostly) to bed. Coastal areas still could see some precipitation, as could southeastern New England, but it doesn't look like it's going to be anything to write home about. I'll let another couple of runs of the models come out before I discuss the possibility of accumulations.

That's just depressing.

12/26/2010: ROUND HOUSE

2010-12-22T14:45:00.001-05:00

A couple of quick notes. European guidance came out favoring a bigger storm. I don't buy into it completely yet, but I really want to. Once again, I shall refrain from talking amounts. I find that's an awful jinx.

Much like last winter, I'm moving into a heightened state of readiness with regards to this system.

Secondly, the NWS pretty much agrees.

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
high pressure will remain overhead Friday night...but a coastal storm may impact the region during the weekend.

Low pressure will track across the deep south Saturday before emerging off the southeast coast Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure will rapidly intensify as it interacts with energy from the northern branch of the jet Sunday while tracking up the middle-Atlantic coast. Deep low pressure will pass by to our northeast Monday as it heads toward New England. The exact track of the storm still remains uncertain at this time. There are still two scenarios that remain. The first scenario is that low pressure intensifies as it tracks along the coastline...producing a significant snowstorm across the area. The second scenario is that the low remains far enough off the coast for little or no snowfall across our area.

Latest guidance today has trended a bit towards the first scenario...but guidance still remains divergent in the overall solution. Will carry a chance for snow during the weekend into Monday. However...if heavy snow does occur it is more likely to happen later Sunday into Monday. All interested parties should stay apprised of the latest forecasts as we get closer to the weekend with this potential storm.

Those of you wondering what the title is all about, may I recommend a click?

12/26/2010: I Want to Believe

2010-12-22T11:15:00.000-05:00

See what I did there? I very subtly changed the date. You know how I mentioned that the system was slowing down? Well it did, in a pretty big way.

Snow was originally supposed to start Christmas Eve as Santa was making the rounds. It does not appear, however, that Rudolph's assistance will be required (at least in these parts). Indeed, it doesn't look like it's going to start snowing until Sunday, if it all.

I have several concerns about this system. Unfortunately I don't have the time to whip together some graphics as in years past, so words will have to suffice. Believe it or not, I actually woke up over an hour early to pour through the data that was coming out.

On the whole, this was a remarkably poor decision as I'm really tired now.

Given that the onset of the storm has been so heavily delayed, so too is any official precipitation forecast. The agreement between the various global models and their ensemble forecasts has gone right out the window. At this point, every suite shows a storm. But no suite can agree on where it's going to go.

The situation is like this. You know the massive rains going on in California right now? The ones that are going to cause rampant flooding and inches of rainfall? That's headed west. How it heads west is a huge question.

The second piece to the situation is how a batch of energy comes down out of the north, riding the northern jetstream. Where and how these two link up is a huge question mark.

The way I think of it is like so: say you've got two garden hoses, and they're snaking along your grass. Water's flowing out the ends of both. Eventually they're going to link up, and when they do, their combined water flow is going to get the ground even wetter than they were doing on their own before. And the act of "phasing" together actually increases the flow from the source and causes even more water to come out.

The last problem is the location of the low pressure center that's just sitting there off the coast of Newfoundland. If that system just stays parked there, it's going to act as a suppressor and keep things well south and east. Nobody likes that.

I do think that it's safe to remove any and all mention of rain from the forecast for this area though.

Looking at the individual models is tricky. They're all placing emphasis in various locations. Most of the professional meteorologists are placing a heavy emphasis on the Euro because of it's remarkably run-to-run consistency. To give you an idea, the smallest amounts pegged by the Euro would yield double digit snowfall from North Carolina to Maine. Unfortunately, it is generally alone in this forecast.

The UK and Canadian models generally strike a compromise solution. The system will be out to sea, but much of the coast will still get fringed. That includes us. At this point, I personally lean towards this solution. I'm not completely sold on what the Euro is putting down despite what the HPC, NWS and other forecasters say. I WANT TO BE WRONG.

The GFS has this thing heading out to sea. Not even a flake up here. The GFS actually latched onto the idea of a massive storm for last weekend first, and was also first to drop it off to an out to sea solution. With the latest run (out minutes ago), it took a step back towards what the Euro was saying. It's keeping the system much closer to the coast and leaves the door open for a major storm.

At this point, I'm waiting for probably 5 more cycles worth of data before I get to a point to make a first call on accumulations. I'm still leaning towards there being snow, but I keep thinking that the climatology for this winter in general, and these kinds of storms in particular, is all about threading the needle.

12/25/2010: Hope Renewed?

2010-12-20T12:00:00.001-05:00

I was a good boy. I waited until Monday, just like I said I would.

So I've been watching this bad boy for several days now, and what strikes me the most about a potential Christmas day storm is the remarkable consistency with which it has been prognosticated.

Whereas the last system was completely unpredictable and waffling up until about 36-48 hours ahead, every single global model has called for snow in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Christmas day. And they've been calling for it consistently over the past five days or so too.

True, the timing and details are all a little fuzzy still. What would you expect five days out? The important thing is that while the details aren't there yet, the idea is. There is no Europe versus America this time (although the American models have been trending more towards the European solution, again).

Now, having said that, it's still rather early to be talking accumulations. However, Richmond straight up to Boston is currently in line to see something. The models have been bouncing back and forth between what would generally be considered "significant", "major" and "historic". There is no consensus, so don't ask.

The features that we'll have to watch out for are numerous and distinguished. First is timing. Originally the thinking was onset on Friday night. Now it's looking more like Saturday afternoon.

Second is exact track. There's still a chance this thing goes west and up through the Ohio valley (which is generally what's favored climatologically speaking in a La Niña year) . That leaves us with an ugly mix. On the flip side, there's a chance the cold air is too strong and the mid-Atlantic gets fringed while Southern New England/NYC/Long Island get dumped on (which is what happened last weekend with the excessively strong blocking).

Finally there's the question of moisture. The low has to be pretty well positioned to draw in the right amount of moisture.

The overall problem (as shown last weekend) is that this year, there's a lot more that has to go right. Climatology is not in our favor. If this system threads the needle just right, we could be set up for something big. A little deviation either way and we get shafted.

12/19/2010: Canceled

2010-12-19T00:00:00.001-05:00

Not sure it had to be stated, but just in case it did: canceled. No real accumulations for anybody in the area. Perhaps not even southern New England.

The Old World masters have won once again.

What I find tantalizingly interesting are the chances for later in the week. I feel I may have jumped the gun a bit on the last one, and I apologize. I was part of the hype machine, if there is such a thing for weather.

What I find so intriguing is the remarkable consensus amongst the models, both European and American, about a late week system. In the hopes that I do not jinx it too much, I am hereby ordering my fingers to cease and desist communications. We'll see how long I can hold it in.

The current over/under is Monday. A betting man takes the under.

12/19/2010: Confusion

2010-12-16T23:00:00.001-05:00

So the threat for this weekend isn't totally gone. Just mostly. And not as gone as it was yesterday, but more gone then the day before.

If that doesn't make any sense, it's because it probably doesn't.

For some background, there are basically two sets of models, American and European. Every single individual model has its own sets of biases and things its better at over the others. For the purposes of forecasting for North America, the European models to pay attention to are the ECMWF and the UKMET. The American models are the GFS and the NAM.

The Canadian isn't bad either, but it doesn't really fall with either set for multiple reasons. First of all, it is from Canada. Usually people will use it as a tiebreaker when a bunch of the models are saying different things.

So up until yesterday, the American models were all predicting good things. The European models were consistently predicting bad things. When they disagree, it's tough to draw the right line, especially five days out. Well this morning, they both show good things. This afternoon the American models start showing bad things, and the European good things.

If you're confused, it's only natural. It's confusing. To clarify somewhat, when I say good things, I mean snow. When I say bad things, I mean no snow.

So here's the deal. What it's looking like right now is the DC area gets a grazing Saturday night into Sunday. Light snow every so often. South and (especially) east of town has the potential for more. Depending on how close to the shore, it could be a lot more. Let's throw out some raw numbers from the models (with no analysis).

The best the American models have for the DC area is a couple or few inches. Closer to the coast it's more like closer to six. Southern New England (Rhode Island, Cape Cod, etc.) gets dumped on.

The latest European models (which are honestly probably a little better at these kinds of storms) show much better things. A foot plus along the coast, 6-10 inches a little bit inland. Tonight's ECMWF model will go a long way towards determining a good forecast.

Having said that, you don't come here to read raw models. You can train a monkey to read raw models. I told you that on Thursday I'd start talking accumulations, so that's what I'm going to do. Readers from last year know how I do this thing. I'll break it down by area of interest and give a percentage chance for a range of accumulations.

Given the high uncertainty in this system, take 'em with a grain of salt, eh? I'll hopefully refine these considerably tomorrow with consensus.

DC and Metro areas to the east:
Nothing: 25%
1-3 inches: 40%
4-8 inches: 20%
8-12 inches: 10%
12+ inches: 5%

For Meghan, Wilmington, DE:
Nothing: 10%
1-3 inches: 25%
4-8 inches: 35%
8-12 inches: 20%
12+ inches: 10%

Harrisonburg (for Jen and company, natch):
Nothing: 50%
1-3 inches: 25%
4-8 inches: 15%
8-12 inches: 5%
12+ inches: 5%

Like with most of the coastal storms, there's a tight gradient. Fifty miles either way makes the difference between four inches and a foot. Unlike the local meteorologists, I'm leaning towards snow falling. I think we get something. That judgment is absolutely subject to change. If I'm forgetting an area you find near and/or dear to your heart, drop me a line and I'll see if I can include it with my predictions.

Nothing from Texas though.

12/16/2010: Update on Today's Snow

2010-12-16T11:30:00.001-05:00

A couple of quick notes on today's snow. I've been looking at the radar and overall movement of the snow, and I kind of think the 1-2 inches the NWS is calling for in the immediate metro area is on the low side.

The snow, when it started coming down, was sticking immediately.

There are a couple of components to look at with this system though that I think weren't quite properly pegged down. First, the precipitation shield was larger than anticipated. More stuff went further north than they were thinking, and something that the models didn't pick up on very well. The second is that the system is pulling in more moisture than previously anticipated. There are some pretty heavy bands closer to the VA/NC border.

The cold air to the north though is still doing a pretty good job at keeping the heavier stuff south. There is some heavy banding to the west, I just don't know if they can make it over the mountains. I hope they do.

On a side note, the HPC was put us with an outside chance at 4 inches (considered "slight" or between 10-40%). I'll take it, especially given my increasing skepticism for the weekend.

I'll put an update up about the weekend "threat" later today. The usage of quotes should be seen as ominous for snow lovers.

12/19/2010: Diminished?

2010-12-15T17:00:00.001-05:00

See, this is why I wait until a couple of days out to discuss possible storms, especially when it comes to accumulations. So I posted yesterday morning about possibility and potential. A few hours later, some models came out that had us getting totally socked. We're talking over a foot.

Well, I was tempted to go back and post something right then, but I held back. Why, I asked myself, am I getting excited about something that's five days out? So I kept myself in check. I decided I'd wait and see what came about today, because there was some disagreement still even yesterday.

True to form, things don't look nearly as rosy as they did yesterday. Do I think we're still going to get snow? Yes. A foot or more? Not just yet.

The difficulty is in coming to a consensus when every piece of operational guidance tells you something different. Most real meteorologists can look at the raw output and tell you where there are some faults with various solutions. As we know, I am not a real meteorologist. I take a look at various solutions and try to look for an overall trend. The problem is right now, there is no one trend.

One of three things is going to happen: we're going to get socked, we're going to be fringe, we're going to get nothing. Right now, I think this thing will be sufficiently far enough out to sea that we're going to be fringe. There aren't the signs of severe suppression that I cited yesterday, so it'll be a decent coastal storm, just not strong enough to make its way inland.

I'm still hesitant to discuss possible totals until tomorrow at the earliest. I'll come out with probabilities then. As far as tomorrow's system is concerned, I think DC will see 1-2 inches, more to the south. Richmond could see up to four or maybe five. Basically it'll be enough tomorrow to really mess with everybody's commute in the evening.

12/19/2010: Potential Continues

2010-12-14T07:00:00.000-05:00

Here I go, ramping it up into full winter weather mode. Thoroughly depressing fact for the day: Richmond got a couple of inches yesterday and we did not. Blech.

They may actually see some more action on Thursday, couple more inches?

The threat for the DC area though, with regards to Thursday at any rate, seems lessened. There's a chance, to be sure, that we'll see an inch or two, but I'm not holding my breath.

The situation for the 19th, however, continues to be the one to watch. More of the proper players are entering the field. The question is, do they have the right play called? Will they execute properly? This far out it's really difficult to tell.

Here's how it's looking so far though. Northern stream energy comes in from (predictably) the north, phases in with some action from the south and scoots up and off the coast. This type of scenario would at best keep NYC in the fringe. Given the overall suppressed look of this thing, south and east is the ticket.

Places like Richmond and Williamsburg could see more of a mix scenario, depending on how strong the cold air is and where the southern stream phasing occurs. Too strong and it has implications up and down the coast, like turning that mix into all snow and suppressing the precipitation away from DC.

Another scenario is for this bad boy just to go straight out to sea. That is probably, at this point, statistically more likely than not. I'm not convinced that it will though. I think DC sees something out of this, and there's still plenty of potential for it to be a whole lot of something.

For Meghan out in Wilmington (with the kiddo due any day), I don't think you're going to have to worry about ice. A couple of models hinted at that as a possibility yesterday, but I'm pretty sure they were flat-out wrong. That has been backed up with some of the more recent data that has come in. If things change, I'll let you know.

12/19/2010: Potential?

2010-12-13T07:30:00.000-05:00

I gazed into my crystal ball last week and boldly proclaimed (even with a little scientific backing!) that there was potential for some wintry precipitation a week to almost two weeks out.

And indeed, there is. Actually there are two possibilities within the next week or so, one larger than the other.

Let's take a look at Thursday/Friday first (16th-17th). First and foremost, this week is gonna be amazingly cold. Temperatures will be somewhere around 15 degrees below normal, so there's not much question of it being cold enough. It's going to be cold enough.

The setup is a clipper diving down from Canada (again with the Canadians!). The issue is that this cold air is so strong and so dry, it may dive too far south, much like the last clipper. If the cold air backs off a little earlier than expected, there may be a shot at a couple of inches. Nothing to really write home about. Likely it's going to be south of the DC area though.

The main event, however, is looking like the 19th-ish. A couple of models have latched on to the idea of a coastal system around that timeframe. Latest models are actually calling for a good amount of snow. I have a policy, however, of not really discussing possible accumulations until 3-4 days out, so expect more input no later than Thursday.

Regardless, the timing of such an event sort of makes sense. Our pattern recently has been the quick clipper around the end of the week with the coastal setup during the weekend. Such a scenario fits this one as well. This particular setup is also significant due to the atmospheric factors I discussed previously as well.

The bottom line is that there's some real potential for 12/19. I won't discount 12/16-12/17 yet either, and you may hear more about that later today or tomorrow.

Mid-Term Outlook for December

2010-12-10T07:00:00.001-05:00

Generally speaking, this weekend is looking like a wash for snow lovers.

While the cold air has been firmly locked into place (and making my walks to/from the metro pretty chilling), there's been nothing in the way of precipitation to back it up. Makes sense because we've been under the influence of a pretty strong bit of cold, high pressure.

You can thank the Canadians.

The lack of precipitation ends this weekend. Unfortunately, as is common with La Niña years, the low pressure system is curving early and well to the west of us. Don't say I didn't tell you this was going to happen. Because I did.

Another thing I told you might be common this year would be the chance for wintry precipitation before and/or after the main part of these events occurs. That would appear to once again be the case with some snow flurries/showers today, and a shot at some ice or snow on Sunday night as cold air floods in behind the departing system.

Speaking of that cold air, it's gonna be WICKED. Monday we'll be lucky to have highs above freezing with winds probably between 20-30 mph. That's going to make for a crazy windchill. Tuesday the winds die down a bit (15-25 mph) but the air gets colder. Like we'll be lucky to get into the 30s during the day. Windchills probably in the teens at best, more likely in the single digits.

There are some encouraging signs for this month though. The cold air has been in ample supply, so that's one ingredient in the overall recipe for snow. The cause for the coldness has been the overwhelmingly negative NAO and AO. The NAO is going to moderate a little while the AO stays strongly negative. The key component which thus far has not been cooperative at all is the negative PNA. As you will undoubtedly recall, the PNA in its negative state shoves those storms off to the left (west). Nobody likes the west.

The current indications for the PNA are that it may be headed into a neutral phase (which would provide for wintry precipitation when coupled with a neutral-negative NAO and negative AO), or perhaps even slightly positive (which would provide for snow). Note the differences between the terminology: wintry vs. snow.

Let's say that forecast holds up. What it means is somewhere in the 7-12 day range, we could be in for a shot of something that would qualify as, at the very least, interesting. Maybe a white Christmas?

Roundup: Winter Outlook Edition

2010-11-24T14:00:00.001-05:00

The always excellent Dr. Jeff Masters has his winter outlook posted, and it's a pretty quick read. Generally speaking his outlook is pretty close to mine, although the analogue for this upcoming winter is the pitiful one of 2007-2008. Of course, he also points out the big wild card of the NAO as one that could dramatically alter the winter to being one that was more like 1995-1996.

The NWS released their outlook over a month ago. More of the same really, but without any actual numbers. It just describes conditions and it concurs nicely with Dr. Masters' oulook.

For the meteorological illiterate, there's the sensationalistic AccuWeather which is predicting a winter closer to average for the area. Prettiest graphics award?

Now, I haven't actually gone through all of the local meteorologists forecasts, but I've been led to believe that they're all pretty much in line with my predictions with minor variations. If there was anything significantly different, I would have let you know.

The consistently outstanding Capital Weather Gang agree very closely with mine, which is hardly surprising. If you want (by FAR) the most detail for an outlook, I recommend you give it a read. There's a crapload of information there, but it's geared more towards weather nerds like me. If you don't want to read about specific locations of low pressure areas and ridging, I'd give the methodology section a pass.

And of course, there's the one I posted on Monday. I had no clue that such a slew of 'em were going to be coming out this week (like all of the local meteorologists).

One thing you'll notice is that just about all of the forecasts make mention of La Niña and the NAO. Some of 'em mention the AO. Few of them mention the PDO. And then most forecasts like to take into account something you wouldn't necessarily think has anything to do with weather. Examples? Arctic ice extent. Current solar activity. Those fuzzy striped caterpillars that I've heard everybody and their mother quote as scientifically relevant (EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT). The Old Farmer's Almanac (statistically no better than flipping a coin). The season's hurricane or tornado activity.

The bottom line is we don't know one half of one percent about what makes the weather happen or how to predict it. Quite frankly, you could say that about any subject, not just the weather. It's just that with the weather, it's particularly obvious.

Winter Outlook

2010-11-22T12:00:00.001-05:00

The thought had occurred to me that you might like to see charts and graphs and whatnot of what I think we'll be getting this winter. And then I realized that most people don't really care about the details, they just want an answer: how much snow are we getting this winter?

Well, with meteorological winter starting next week, and astronomical winter starting a month from yesterday, I figured I should try to answer your question. In short, doesn't look like a whole lot, but this year will be especially hard to predict.

Average for DCA is at about 15.2 inches (last year they measured 56.1), IAD is 21.2 inches (last year they measured 73.2). My hunch is that it will be a below average year, but probably not by a whole lot. DCA can probably expect 10-14 inches overall, IAD 16-20. The 16-20 figure can be pulled out for Fairfax and Montgomery.

I'm thinking it's gonna be a good year (but not great) in the mountains. My big concern this year is honestly ice. I can kind of see a few scenarios where the I-95 corridor is bullseye for a massive wintry mix while the mountains get most of the snow.

So, for those of you who don't really care about how I'm coming up with these predictions, feel free to stop reading...now.

Last year there were three factors that basically aligned perfectly to give us a ridiculous amount of snow. The cold air was in place for most of the season courtesy of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), there was a strong southern jet stream that kept shunting big storms up the coast thanks to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and a weak El Niño that kind of kept the flow of storms moving. That kind of confluence of events is a once in a lifetime type of event. I do not expect to see anything like that in this area for another 50+ years, if ever.

The issues with this winter begin and end with El Niño/La Niña. As is typical for El Niño events, there's a huge swing to a La Niña, and this year's is looking to be historically strong. There also seems to be some evidence that El Niño directly impacts the PDO. What that means is the dominant track for storms is shifted west by a few hundred miles, and more often a part of the northern jet stream.

Typically in the coastal storms that give us the most snow, the center of the storm is where the action is. It makes sense. You've got the most energy situated in that area, the greatest pressure variances, all that good stuff. It's also where the rain/snow/mix line is. Last winter, DC/Baltimore were right in the heart of where those storms were tracking. This winter that line gets moved.

If you were to just straight up transplant those storms off to the west of us, then it would be a rainy scenario. Fortunately that's not how the weather works. Moving those storms to the west introduces a lot of other factors, and it's those factors that are why I think we'll see more ice. These storms are going to move so quickly through the area that the cold air (which is heavier) is going to stay at the surface while the warmer air moves aloft. Precipitation will start off as snow, melt to rain, and refreeze as either sleet (in air) or freezing rain (on the surface).

If the storms move a little slower, we'll see more storms that start off frozen, change to wet, and end as frozen.

I did mention above, however, that this winter was particularly challenging, and my predictions are absolutely subject to change. I've already gotten more optimistic than I was before. There are two really big wild cards to our winter equation.

First is the variability of La Niña. Some of the models have been backing off on the severity of the La Niña event, and indeed many meteorologists were quite surprised at how quickly the last El Niño backed off and moderated. There are some hints that this La Niña may not be quite as historic as previously forecast. Moderate events of either kind (El Niño or La Niña) are traditionally big for this area. I'm not holding out hope for that though.

Second is the strength and duration of any NAO and/or AO events. While La Niña is a global phenomenon, the NAO and AO effects are localized to the eastern seaboard of North America, and Western Europe. There is a correlation between particularly strong NAO and snowfall (to the tune of 150% greater snowfall during a La Niña and 300% greater snowfall during an El Niño). There is also some evidence that, while the NAO and AO fluctuate every week or two, the overall impacts are also decadal. And there's research to suggest that we've just entered a predominantly negative (cold) phase for the next ten or so years.

The bottom line is that long-range forecasting is a highly inexact science. Predicting what's going to happen two weeks from now is only a little easier than predicting what's going to happen two months from now.

I'd like to be wrong, but I feel like this is a pretty solid forecast. Or about as solid as you can get trying to predict an entire season.

Backlog

2010-11-16T10:00:00.000-05:00

It's been almost two months. I know this. In my defense, a LOT has happened.

Having said that, I will not hide behind it. I don't know if you've missed me, but I missed you. Much has changed, but certainly not that.

For starters, new job. Yup. No preamble, no nothing like that. New job. Out with the old, in with the new. Where previously I was kind of stuck doing the same thing for a couple of years consecutively with no real way to get out, I took the plunge into something rather different.

And I'd like to think it was done in a somewhat classy fashion. I have always been one to fade to black. I didn't like the idea of leaving a blaze of glory, torching the town on my way out. Not my style. Instead, I personally said goodbye to as many people that I actually really wanted to. I don't know that I got everybody, but I tried.

In fact, a lot of people that I don't regularly keep in touch with probably still don't know that I've got a new job. So, surprise!

It was kind of interesting the way it all came about as well. Lunch with a friend turned into a recommendation, turned into an interview, turned into another interview, turned into a third interview, which turned into a 55 mile commute (each way). The transition hasn't been easy, but apparently my performance thus far has been well received so it's been mostly good.

Other new stuff? Geez. Isn't a new job enough for you? You never really understand exactly how much changes with something like a new job. The ripple effect is incredible. My whole routine in the morning and evening is different. When I can deal with personal things that repeatedly pop up is completely unpredictable. I don't think I've been any harder to reach though. Quite the opposite in fact.

As I have more time that I spend in the car now, with my bluetooth speakerphone I'm able to talk to many people on my way home for quite an extended period of time. In fact I'm generally able to get in several conversations during the course of one ride home (if the people are willing, natch).

Anyway, there's a lot I've been thinking about. There's a lot that's been going on. I'm hoping to resume a steady stream of a couple of posts a week about the usual nonsense and drivel I put out. Plus, with winter coming up, things usually pick up around here as it is. Most animals hibernate for the winter. I hibernate for the spring and summer apparently.

Mexican Mishap, part 1

2010-09-26T23:00:00.000-04:00

This post has been a loooong time coming. It's been an eventful month, as you'll eventually find out. I first started writing this post on the fifth of this month. I then summarily erased it and decided to start afresh as the events encompassing the 28th to 30th of August were especially memorable.

In summary, we got stranded in Mexico with no way to get home. Apparently that's what happens when airlines go bankrupt.

So gather 'round children. It's story time.

August 28th was supposed to be our last day in Cancun. Key phrase "supposed to be". Our flight was scheduled to leave around 6:30 PM, land around 10:30 or 11. Non-stop because it's easier with a pair of little ones.

Check-out time at the hotel was 11, so we obviously had some time to kill before we had to get to the airport. Next door to the resort was a nice mall, so we figured we'd leave our shopping until the last day as we'd have a few hours without a hotel room. So that's exactly what we did. Dropped the kids into their strollers, walked next door and promptly spent far too much money on things for other people.

Before you wonder where the whole kidS part comes from, our friends Tim and Mel were traveling with us, naturally as was their almost (at the time) one year old daughter. We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

So we got back to the resort around 3:15 as our scheduled transportation was to have picked us up at 3:30. We shove everything we just purchased into our luggage and hop into the van to get to the airport. Upon arrival at the airport is right around the time most of hell broke loose.

We hop out of the van, a porter grabs our bags and asks us which airline.

"Mexicana," we say.

"I don't think you're flying out today," is what we get in return, in rather fractured English.

"Wait, what?"

"The airline has no money. All flights cancel."

"What?"

"I take your bags to the desk, they will tell you, and then you tell me where you want the bags."

So we go to the desk, and where there should be a long line of people waiting to check-in, there is a small desk staffed by three people handing out sheets of paper with a letter from the airline. In it, they say they no longer have money to continue operating so as of noon on the 28th, they ceased operations. Apologies for the inconvenience.

Oh, and there's a cheap hotel nearby in case you need a place to stay for the night. Have a nice day and thanks for your money.

I may be paraphrasing.

So, I grab a calling card from one of the airport stores and give the parental units a call. Guess what, you're not picking us up from the airport tonight!

I then bust out the laptop, pay for an internet connection, and start looking into my options to maybe buy a flight home. This is where capitalism works at it's finest.

Literally, within a matter of thirty minutes while we're evaluating our options, all flights that night and for most of the next day sell out, or go from being $350 per person to approximately $700. This took minutes.

At this point we've been at the airport for probably something like an hour and a half or two hours. Fortunately, mom and dad used some of their Marriott points and got us some rooms at the hotel closest to the airport. We all went back there, along with everybody else in Cancun flying Mexicana, and checked in. Set up the laptop and continued evaluating options.

Thank goodness for Skype by the way. All week and weekend we used Skype to keep in touch with everybody via the laptop. So much cheaper.

The options, as they were, were abundantly grim. Either we drive down to Cozumel, which is well over an hour away, and fly into Philly, or we try to work with the airline in which they repeatedly told us that the earliest flights we could get out were on Wednesday.

At this point, Tim and I headed back to the airport. As it turned out, there was no point. All of the counters for just about every airline was closed. Saturday was gonna be a dud.

So we head back to the hotel (yay free shuttles!). At this point, it's just before 8 PM and we still have no answers. We are effectively stranded. I decided it was time to make some phone calls, and called the two numbers available.

Phone number one, recording and we close at 8. Sorry for the inconvenience. To speak with one of our representatives, please press two. Click. Sigh.

Phone number two, recording and we close at 8. Sorry for the inconvenience. to speak with one of our representatives, please press two. Crappy music (muzak). Ten minutes later (and after 8 PM), I get someone.

"Hi, I have a problem. I'm stranded here in Mexico with two kids under two, and I need to get home. You're going to fix it for me. Now."

The only option he was coming up with was "a flight to another country, and then to Washington." OK, which country? "Canada. Toronto."

I suppose that counts.

You don't have anything into BWI? DCA? Philadelphia? Richmond?

"Please hold."

No. Nope. Nada. Seriously, Richmond?

Hey, it was worth a shot. OK, so when do we get home? What's the flight information like?

"You'll leave Cancun at 1:00 on Sunday, stay overnight in Toronto and take the 6 AM flight from Toronto into IAD and land at 7:30 AM on Monday morning."

You're sure you have no other options. "Please hold? No."

OK, can you make sure all six of us (four plus two lap kiddos) get on the same flight? "I'll need both confirmation numbers to make sure."

"Yes, we can do that. So you want this?" It's the only way you're letting me get home, isn't it?

"Well, yes. OK, I'll need to confirm everything through Air Canada, please hold."

If you're getting tired of all the "please holds" you have no idea what it was like to sit there during all of this. Five minutes later I was asked to continue holding, as if I had a choice. But at least he asked. Five minutes after that we were told we were good to go. "What you'll want to do is make sure you get to the airport about five hours early so you can get the proper documentation from Mexicana. Then you'll go to the Air Canada desk and check-in."

No new confirmation numbers? "No, just use your existing Mexicana confirmation numbers."

(Insert leap of faith....here.)

OK, we'll give that a shot. You're sure this will work? "Well that's why you need to show up early. All of this is basically being done on paper so there's a lot of stuff we have to go through to make this work."

(Insert deflating confidence...here.)

"OK, you're all set. Have a nice day and thank you for flying Mexicana." He seriously said that. I will leave my litany of jokes and comments to the side and just let the irony sink in. Let it get too far and it'll get you like Mexican sunburn.

So, we had a theoretical way home. Pardon my lack of confidence, but everything I'd heard on the phone was not really going to prompt me to book a couple of hotel rooms just yet. I won't make hotel reservations until I have those boarding cards in my hands. This, among many decisions I made that weekend, turned out to have been wise.

Oh yeah, and the representative insisted that all six of us be at the airport between 8-9 AM. No, the kids can't stay at the hotel while the guys go try and take care of things. So the math works out to be about four or five hours in an airport for both tots the day after they'd already spent two or three.

The following morning we make our grand entrance. We have a plan. We are armed with confirmation numbers, and the word of a nameless and faceless representative on the other end of a Skype phone call. Not necessarily the hand I want to go "all in" with, but it's the hand I got dealt. Let's see how it stacks up!

Our plan involved a classic frontal assault with a half-pincer movement. In other words, we walked in through the front door and attacked until we had answers. Amazingly, not only were there Mexicana personnel there, they actually helped us! They found our reservation with the updates for Air Canada, complete with new confirmation numbers!

Success! Right?

To be continued when I'm not fighting sleep.

Like a Kick to the Face

2010-08-11T23:00:00.000-04:00

About a week and a half ago, we continue our tour of the country with another wedding, this one in "wild and wonderful" West Virginia. I don't know about the wonderful part, but there was some wildness. Sufficiently enough wildness that while driving for an hour and a half (or two?) in the state, we came across no major cities. Come to think of it, we came across no minor cities either.

It certainly seemed like the wilderness.

Regardless, the weekend was our anniversary weekend and every year we spend a day in Harrisonburg at JMU. This year, we actually also spent the night there on Friday, and in West Virginia on Saturday. The tricky part of the weekend was in spending the night with Nikhil. Unfortunately, he's very picky about where he sleeps.

He likes his crib at home, and he likes the crib at my parents house. He's OK with the crib at Lisa's parents house. And he does not do the pack and play style cribs. Part of it may have to do with the fact that he's huge. Something like 95th percentile in height? Wonder where he got that from...

Well there aren't really any extremely nice hotels in either Harrisonburg (Holiday Inn!) or where we stayed in West Virginia (Hampton Inn!). Predictably, the cribs weren't fantastic either. Also predictably, he wouldn't sleep in the cribs.

Traditionally, we have a pretty firm rule that he doesn't sleep in the bed between us. That's not something we have any interest in encouraging. However, for those two nights, it was really pretty much the only solution we had. That, or ensure that the people staying in the rooms next to us in the hotel would kill us from the persistent noise of Nikhil screaming with everything he's got.

Fortunately, the beds we got were King size. We have a California King at home (which is longer and a little narrower than a traditional King), so the extra width helped. What did not help was Nikhil.

The first night he refused to sleep. Both Lisa and I were quite tired, but not Nikhil. Ohhhh no. Lisa was trying to sleep, I was a little behind. Nikhil took turns grabbing each of our faces and saying, "HI?" Repeatedly. For fifteen minutes before he finally gave up. You'd think that would be it.

Nope. You see, apparently he's a fidgety sleeper. He moves around. A lot. And five minutes after he falls asleep, he's facing the opposite direction: his head is facing down, feet in my face. That was about how it was both nights.

Let's get something straight here: I take a couple of different (prescription) pills each night to help me sleep. This would naturally be no different in a hotel. Typically these pills are sufficient to keep me asleep through most things. Except getting kicked in the face, over and over and OVER again.

But hey, the important thing is that he got to sleep, right? He was pretty comfortable in the bed with us, and it was a decent enough temporary solution. What we're getting kind of concerned about is how it's going to be in Cancun. There's no way we can keep that routine up for a whole week.

Movies

2010-08-09T12:00:00.000-04:00

For whatever reason, I've been able to see far more movies in the theater this year than is normally possible, especially for someone in my position: father of a rambunctious one and a half year old. The parental units help out considerably in that regard as they frequently go out of their way to take care of the kiddo.

Typically Lisa and I will take a date night at least once a month or so, grab some dinner and catch a movie. As a result, our Netflix queue has suffered a precipitous drop in its overall length, and we actually lowered our plan.

Any time the MPAA wants to send a thank you my way, I am available.

One of the most singularly captivating movies that I've seen in a long time has got to be Inception. Really there's not much of a question there for me. It was so good, I had to see it in the theaters twice.

The first time I saw it I thought it was "quite good". But then you sit down, let it marinate, think things through. And then you think about it some more. After two days of that, you realize just how crazy and great the movie actually was, at which point I decided I wanted to see it again.

So I went yesterday with a good friend of mine in the early afternoon (on a Sunday). The theater was (once again) sold out. Not a single seat was available. Perhaps the craziest thing though? It lost absolutely none of it's epic breadth in the second showing. If anything, the scope of the movie was probably expanded further with the realization of just how much Christopher Nolan (the writer/director) has put into it.

I came to the conclusion that I didn't like the first half hour or so nearly as much as the rest of the movie while they're setting things up. After that first half hour, the pace really picks up and you won't be able to stop watching. If this description lacks a certain something, it's because I'm being completely (and intentionally) vague, so if you do go see it, you'll understand.

This isn't so much of a review as I leave that kind of stuff to Jordan. It's more just to say how floored and astounded I was by this movie. Somebody deserves to win something. Actually, lots of people deserve to win lots of somethings, and I very much hope they do.

Countdown

2010-08-02T16:45:00.001-04:00

I keep having to tell myself, only two and a half more weeks. It's a constant mantra I keep having to repeat in my head.

The timer to your right gives a precise countdown of when I'll be airborne. It's actually been counting down for something like six months, but only recently have I been looking at it more and more.

For those of you wondering, we're hitting up our timeshare in Cancun. The webcam (updated every ten minutes I believe) is located right here. Our personal concierge actually just contacted us last week to see what we'd need ahead of time.

Feel free to be jealous, but I've earned it.

Two and a half more weeks? I'm never gonna make it...

Moving

2010-08-02T14:00:00.001-04:00

There are many things in life I don't understand. Women. Politics. Quantum physics. Office moves.

There's not a single chance that I may ever be able to comprehend any of those subjects. Today, we shall dwell upon what is perhaps the most confusing of that list: office moves.

You may recall that I very recently moved into a new office. That was barely three months ago. I packed up all of my (admittedly many) belongings and trudged across the floor into a new space. I had a nice window view with many pretty trees. Plenty of natural sunlight. Enough desk and storage space to store my belongings with relative comfort.

All in all, it was (generally speaking) an upgrade. The only major gripes I had were with the lighting situation, and that my relationship with my officemate was essentially cordial. Not really friendly, certainly not hostile, just cordial.

Let's fast forward three months. I'm now in the exact opposite situation. I'm now sharing an office with a friend, and the lighting situation is ideal (in that there is none). Everything else, however, has taken a turn for the worse.

My desk space is much smaller, I no longer have a pretty window view (even though there's still plenty of natural light I'm not sitting at the window and the view is of the back parking lot), there's no room for my vastly consolidated junk, and the air conditioning situation is suspect at best, and off at worst.

I'm also still trying to figure out why I was moved again barely three months after I moved the first time.

And it doesn't just not make sense for me. They had people pack up and move so they could move barely a couple of offices down, or a couple of cubes laterally. I understand wanting to group certain people together. It makes sense. But really? You're going to make people move two desks over? You don't think that's close enough?

You hired movers and had people waste their time packing and unpacking for that?

I'm going to sidestep the blatant favoritism in office assignments that was witnessed. I haven't seen anything like that effectuated in years. Hell, my new officemate got boned pretty hard when he had to share with me (at least so I believe).

So we've established that it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for some of these folks to be moving. Let us also continue in questioning another aspect of the move: infrastructure. They're doubling people up in offices (like myself) when the office itself was not designed for it. Guess who has no outlets near his desk and had to use an extension cord from the other desk to get power? Guess who didn't have a working ethernet jack (which means not only no internet, but no phone either).

I'll give you three guesses, but you'll only need one.

Why stick people in double offices that aren't made to support it? Not sure. But one thing is for sure: I have as much chance of understanding the reasoning and purpose behind it as I do of understanding Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle.

Classy

2010-07-27T18:00:00.000-04:00

Within the past couple of weeks, I've been really impressed by the class and community outreach of the Redskins organization in general, and a former Redskin, Jason Campbell, in particular.

Some background is obviously required prior to a discussion of this sort.

Lisa, in her capacity of school counselor, sees all manner of kids. One of these kids in particular was in the midst of a major battle with brain cancer. It was a battle he lost about a week and a half ago. He had just finished the third grade.

As a parent, I can't even fathom absorbing such a blow, and I quite frankly don't want to. While I may be somewhat more comfortable with the terms and conditions of my own passing, losing Lisa or Nikhil is something I refuse to consider.

Anyway, the boy and his family were really big Redskins fans. His dad has a Redskins mailbox and memorabilia all over the house. The Redskins heard about the family and Jason Campbell actually spent some time out with the family last year. The family also got to go to some of the Redskins practices and rub elbows with the players. Apparently, the boy even stole a chocolate chip cookie from the mouth of Clinton Portis.

Campbell, as most know, was traded to the Raiders. I had always been a supporter of him and hoped he would do well. I feel like he'd been given a raw deal here in DC, and I don't know that anybody could've done really well behind that shambles of an offensive line. Well when things took a turn for the worse last week, Campbell actually flew out from Oakland to visit and be with the family.

If that's not classy and meaningful, I don't know what is.

The funeral was today and Lisa of course went. She was very close with the family, and the boy in particular, so attending wasn't much of a question. At the funeral, several players showed up, and much of the team collaborated on a rap video with their memories of him. That they would make a video and actually remember him is pretty amazing to me.

In this day and age, you know a lot of the multi-millionaire players don't have to do this kind of stuff. They don't have to be a part of the community. With free agency what it is, it's often a pretty transient lifestyle for those guys and can be hard for them to incorporate themselves into it. Maybe they don't want to, maybe the don't care. But to hear when stuff like this happens and how the players are really a part of the community really does warm the heart.

You know that it was the thrill of an altogether far too short lifetime for this kid. The most valuable resource anybody has, including a football player, is time. And they were kind enough to donate some of theirs to someone who didn't have much of his own.

I know I've been fairly critical of the Redskins organization in the past, but these actions really do a lot of good. I've always been a Redskins fan, and I'll continue to be supportive of Campbell and hope he does well with the Raiders.

Outlet

2010-07-27T12:00:00.001-04:00

Writing for me has become one of my primary outlets. As you can see by my (lack of) prodigious output over the past month and a half, there's been a considerable amount bottled up.

Believe it or not, and this will seem rather pie in the sky to many of you (most likely because it is), I had been doing a lot of writing that wasn't on the blog. In fact, I had been researching and writing a book.

Whether or not I actually got around to finishing it or even attempting to get it published (of which you'd be surprised at how easy it is to self-publish these days) was largely irrelevant. The book was for me. It was something I really liked doing, and pouring my creative energies into (lacking almost any other outlet to do so).

I had a pretty good plot outline of where I wanted things to go. I had developed several strong main characters, and many minor ones. And like many of the best novels I've read, a lot of it was based on true events.

The backdrop of the book was something I was always extremely interested in: the drug trade from Mexico. I actually find the country itself to be utterly fascinating. I love going there. I've been to Tijuana, Puerto Vallarta, Cancun, and some of the neighboring areas around Cancun (which aren't nearly as built up and touristy, more of real Mexico if you will).

I've researched the hell out of all the border areas and where a lot of the violence has been occurring. I'm fairly conversant with the major areas where drugs come in and how they go out. I know a good amount of what's been publicly made available about the major familias that run the operations.

There are honestly few world events that I find more captivating than Mexico's near emergence as a narco-state. And it's in that area that I had been, until my recent focus on survival, devoting many of my evenings (when not busy with Lisa and Nikhil). I have pages of handwritten notes detailing locations, facts, character personalities, and plot outlines. Much of it is still honestly in my head though.

I just wish I could find the time to put more of it down on paper and written. If you're curious about some of the finer plot points, you won't find them here. You'll have to ask me about it directly. Hopefully one day I'll get to finish it and you won't have to ask. I'll just be able to hand you a copy.

Then of course you won't read it, and I'll instead hand you the Cliff's Notes.

Survival Part II

2010-07-26T23:00:00.001-04:00

So I wrote a bunch of nonsense a week or two ago. But hey, it's more fun that way.

Christmas in July has passed without a whole bunch of merryment. Beers were had, company enjoyed, the Flu and Bronchitis contracted.

Surprised you with that bit, eh? Yeah, for the last two weeks(ish), I've been struggling with first the Flu (or as the lazy doctor called it, without bothering to test, a "flu-like viral infection"), along with the Flu there was an entirely unavoidable wedding. Once the wedding was done, the Flu reappeared in conjunction with Christmas in July.

The Flu then morphed into Bronchitis, and I've been coughing stuff up since.

Weeee?

Indeed, to this very moment, I still suffer. I was actually concerned for a little while that it might be Pneumonia. According to the urgent care, it's not. Oh yeah, did I mention the rash? There's a rash too. A red, itchy, bumpy rash. I thought it was the extensive work of mosquitoes at first, that is until I realized I was itching places where they did not have extensive access.

I know what you're thinking, and it wasn't there. I wanted to see if that's what you thought of first, and it was, wasn't it? Shame on you.

Nonetheless, at my peak I took twelve pills to get me through the night. Concussion meds, sleep meds, Flu/Bronchitis meds. Apparently that's how I roll?

Did I mention that while I've been struggling with being sick for two weeks, I've got a massive deadline at work? I've lost track of the number of extra hours I've donated to the cause. I've been told by multiple doctors that I should be at home resting (as if that was possible). I actually laughed when I was told that the other day.

I don't know when it's going to end quite frankly. And it's been among the more trying periods I've experienced recently. It feels like every time I get close to falling off the edge and thinking it can't get any worse, it kinda does. So I keep skirting painfully close to out of control and only just managing to keep it in line through sheer strength of will.

Not sure what's going to happen, but it's pretty freaky. It's pretty worrisome. And I really don't know when it's going to stop.

So, if you see me staring blankly into space, smack me upside the head and remind me that I should be working.

Survival Part I

2010-07-18T23:00:00.002-04:00

Believe it or not, I've actually written four or five times in the past month (and change) since you last saw something in this space.

It's true.

The problem, of course, is that it all sucked. Complete trash. Garbage. The only thing worthwhile that I haven't deleted was from the 27th, and it was about the World Cup. I may still release it after I finish/fix it. I however caution you against anything having to do with your breath, most importantly with regards to the holding of the aforementioned breath.

Amusingly it was around the 27th in that which could be considered not quite all of hell broke loose. Various factions, legions and companies were released, not all of them at once. Other more dastardly forces were held in reserve. Nonetheless, many battles fought. Victories gained. Losses agonized over. I realized that somebody was fucking with me, and I was less than enthused about its effects.

Less than enthused in not so much the classic, understated sense, but more along the lines of "I am an avenger of dark and evil deeds, thou shalt fear me". I yearned to turn the tables. The yearning translated into exactly zero results.

So that lays an outline of my prior attempts at survival until, oh, last Thursday. Thursday we entered the next phase, just as important as the last. Specifically today being the most important day of this survival phase, that which has frequently become known as either Christmas in July or the harbinger of doom for a technical company (I'm lookin at you Circuit City, last year's honoree). This year's most honored attendant has yet to be decided upon.

Fear not, noble masses (which almost became misses, so you DID miss me?). This year's primary phase of Christmas in July has just reach it's Zenith, so there is plenty of time to go over those details. I will, tantalizingly as ever choose to wait a day or two when sleep meds do not play such an important part to begin going over those details.

Fooled you didn't I? Sleeping meds played a substantial role (or roll, depends on if you're hungry) in this post, but it was generally sanitized (except for language). In which the MPAA would probably give it a PG instead of a G due to languages and adult content. Basically the same as any damn cartoon ever made. Oh well, what the hell. Until the continuation of the nonsense.

Hope you're happy Mike...

Grueling

2010-06-13T23:00:00.001-04:00

The past month and a half or so have been rather trying on me in all facets. Physically I'm exhausted. Emotionally I'm somewhat drained, but better than anywhere else. Mentally, the fatigue is setting in at precisely the wrong time.

We begin our tale in early May with the trip to Boston. Late Friday departure, late Sunday return, non-stop hop around Boston in rather rainy conditions. Lots of fun though, and a truly great city (with good people there too).

I'm trying really hard to remember the next weekend. Consequently, while I'm still trying I am simultaneously failing spectacularly.

The weekend after that we celebrated Mother's Day weekend. It was a couple of weeks late, but that's because Boston got in the way. That weekend is one exhausting blur, but I remember the Zoo and hamburgers. It was like a staycation for Lisa. It was more like a weekend of overtime for me.

Memorial Day weekend you're supposed to get an extra day. I did, but it was spent doing stuff. My (wonderful) nephew's birthday party was that weekend, so dinner with my sister and family on Friday, errands for the party Saturday, actual party Sunday, in-laws head out Monday. On the whole, not so stressful, just more really busy (which therefore makes it stressful).

The next weekend, the first in June, was Vegas. Well I believe we've covered that ground.

This weekend was spent in Richmond, mainly in traffic. Three hours down, two and a half up. 100 miles in three hours is an insult. Yesterday saw us going pretty steady with stuff to do in Richmond.

Next weekend? Well Annapolis had been on the docket, but I removed it. We were going to go for Father's Day, but I don't think I can handle another day with two plus hours in the car and miles of walking around. I hurt my foot the last time we did that in Vegas. Not to mention that some rather unpleasant business has popped up that, quite frankly, is going to be difficult to handle at best (and for which I may actually request help from the masses).

The weekend after that we're going wild for Lisa's birthday. After that is the fourth of July (where there will be more unpleasant business). After that a wedding (in Long Island). Then another wedding (one of the only local ones this year, unless you could count Sleesburg as local). Then, allegedly, a weekend off, followed by another wedding (in West Virginia). Still keeping up? We're into August now with a weekend off, followed by (you guessed it) a wedding!

Whoever said summers were supposed to be relaxing?

I may take the week before my vacation off as a pre-vacation to prepare mentally for the relative non-stress of a vacation. My body will need to adapt to sitting on a beach.

Winter Mini-Preview

2010-06-12T23:00:00.000-04:00

I know what you're thinking.

"It's June, not even officially summer yet, and he's already thinking about winter."

I can't help it. Really. Temperatures over the past couple of weeks have been just as likely to go above 90 as below it. Wicked dew points means high humidity leads to me being miserable. DC summers are awful. I liked Vegas better when it was 110 and dry.

Well, all this has got me missing winter, and consequently looking forward to the next fall and winter. Fall brings so much promise with it. Trees changing color, football, no more having to mow the lawn, Halloween. All good things.

Winter sometimes brings snow. Or in the case of the past seven months, record setting amounts of snow. It was wonderful.

But this here post is for those of you who are haters. Those undeserving of my snow. Thanks to you, and La Niña, I'm thinking this winter will be more rainy than snowy. I should blame La Niña more, but it makes me feel better to actually have people for which I can blame. So we'll run with that, shall we?

My good friends at the Climate Prediction Center every month put out updated forecasts for the Niños. This month they have declared we're officially neutral, and trending sharply to a Niña. That means several things that have a rather large impact on us, and I will discuss them chronologically.

First, hurricane season is gonna suck. No two ways about it. An El Niño provides stronger winds over the Main Developmental Region (MDR) in the Atlantic where, amazingly enough, 85% of hurricanes form. The name is rather fitting. Stronger winds actually mean more wind shear, which means those hurricanes can't stay together long enough to do much damage. That also means more African dust, lower sea surface temperatures (because that water's getting moved around so much) and all sorts of other factors that pre-empt all but the most stubborn of hurricanes from doing the nasty.

Predictably, La Niña provides the exact opposite. Current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the MDR at all-time highs. Wind shear is historically low. Not much dust to interfere with hurricane development. By the way, the reason dust is so bad for a hurricane is it injects a lot of dry air into the system which will then tear circulation up, thereby destroying the hurricane before the getting's good. Dry air into a hurricane is like a vacuum on a pile of dirt: it just plain sucks.

So, while you're busy enjoying the hurricane season and the potential terrors to be wrought there, you can sit down and realize that you have a choice: the hurricanes or the winter storms. Fine, El Niño gives you some winter storms. Occasionally good ones. But you don't get but hardly any hurricanes. La Niña on the other hand gives you some pretty wicked hurricanes, but a cold and rainy winter with hardly any snow at all. I ask the haters: hurricanes or snow storms?

On a related note, I have dug up some research on the altogether far more interesting current macro thinking on winter storms for the future. The bag is decidedly mixed, but you'll want to read it.

OK, seriously, it's not usually one or the other, hurricanes or snow storms. But you've backed me up into a corner here. Where do I go? The hurricane season is going to suck, and it looks like it's taking my snow with it. I gotta blame somebody.

Alternate Reality

2010-06-10T12:00:00.001-04:00

The past couple of days, I've been trying to deny myself something, and quite frankly there's no real way around the truth: I miss Las Vegas.

Last weekend we made it a long one, Thursday to Sunday, and went out there for a combined bachelor/bachelorette party (interesting side fact: bachelorette is not in the official Firefox dictionary). It was my first trip in almost seven years and that span of time was enough to basically render the strip almost unrecognizable. Reminds me a little bit of Dubai in that respect.

Nonetheless, it was Lisa's first trip to Sin City and I had been talking up the spectacle that is Las Vegas, or at least as I had last remembered it. I must say, it's gotten even crazier and glitzier. More hotels, more extravagance, more everything. The city takes the adage of "go big or go home" quite seriously.

But I found that the longer I stayed there, the more I realized that Las Vegas isn't quite like going any other place on vacation. You can do almost anything out there. Money almost loses its value because there's just so much of it floating around. It is by no means subtle either.

Pay a little extra here, and you're upgraded to VIP status. A little extra cash there gets you comp'd for a show. Just a few bucks more at the blackjack table. Why not place a side bet?

It's a vortex. And yet, somehow, I can't wait to head back. We had a ridiculous amount of fun.

On Thursday, Lisa, our good friend Sean, and I wondered the strip and must have hit up something like seven or eight casinos. My feet were in absolute pain (particularly my left foot). Thursday night Lisa and I went to Delmonico Steakhouse (which happens to be one of Emeril's restaurants). After that we took in one of the Cirque shows, which was included in our package. Admittedly, I'd say Criss Angel's show is more Cirque-lite, but you can't beat free, and it wasn't bad.

Friday we spent most of the day by the pool. In the evening we split up into boys and girls groups. The girls went out to RM Seafood (as in Rick Moonen from Top Chef Masters). The girls were actually taken care of by Mr. Moonen personally. They then went out to LAX and of course got in gratis.

The boys went out to Mesa Grill which is one of Bobby Flay's restaurants. We then made our way to O'Shea's for some drinking and table games (and by table games I mean alcoholic, not gambling). From there we went out and hit up a couple of clubs. All in all, easily far tamer than it could have been.

Saturday we wandered the southern end of the Strip some more before actually getting some gambling in (over the course of all the 25 minutes of gambling I did, I won $9). We then went out to dinner with everybody, took a quick cab to Bellagio to check out the fountains at night (which we had already seen during the day), cabbed it back to our hotel (THEhotel), and spent the rest of the night at miX taking the Strip in from above.

Woke up hungover Sunday morning, made it to the airport and we were home by 6:15 EDT. The weekend was long, but a hell of a lot of fun. Honestly, there are a bunch of details left out from the above description, but you get the idea. It was almost non-stop action from when we checked in to the moment we checked out. What's funny is we still didn't get around to seeing half of what Vegas had to offer.

To give you an idea of just how much fun I had, while we were on the fence for a wedding out in Vegas in October previously, we're now seriously considering heading back out. And you know how I feel about weddings.

Nonsensical Gibberish

2010-06-08T00:23:00.003-04:00

I warn you now, from within the first line, that what you very well might read past this point really makes no sense. OK, that line made sense, and so does, at least in a theoretical sense, this one. But it's hard to determine which ones will and which ones won't until they're actually out there for public consumptions, ready to stand on their own to the harsh scrutiny that the world subjects them to. Dangerous thing, that world.

Well, welcome to mine. This is, or will be, I'm not sure yet, a little different from previous entries. I consider this a stream of consciousness. But that's not thwere the difference comes in. The stream, as it were, has been polluted.

With what? Drugs of course.

Nothing illegal or nefarious, heavens no. Just the drugs that my doctors wish for me to fall asleep with, and which don't have quite the success rate that they do in allowing me to go thoroughly loopy. Therefore, these types of posts will hardly be spell-checked or grammar-checked at all. If I miss it while I'm writing it, oh well. That's how she does down. The third sentence, the one where I was talking about grammar-checking was almost unintelligible. More so than what is the norm I imagine.

So, if this little experiment of ours proves to be successful. If people are interested in watching a stream of consciousness of which the origination point has been, ah, compromised ever so slightly, well we may well make a habit of it. Indeed, we may even spin off a sister blog. But let us not get ahead of ourselves at this point. We don't even know if this is a good idea yet.

I just noticed, I'm saying we and ours as if there's anybody else here with a vested interest in my writing. Sure I assume there may be even as many as six people who give a damn about my writing, but fortunately approximately four plus change of your actually matter not. The one that does is Lisa. I also give her extra important by taking a fractional piece from someone I don't know and giving it to her, because she's that much better than you.

Here that world? She is superiours. Ah screw it, I'm not going to correct that. She is neither plural nor British. But it's fine! And fun! I meant to say fun. Write fun. But I suppose it's also fine. Why wouldn't it be? Is it fine?

I don't know, we'll just have to play it out.

So at this point, I want to be done writing. Typically there is some narrative or discussion which will have helped you arrive to this point. STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS KNOWS NO SUCH RULES. I realized it's getting close to the wooting hour, not to be confused with the witching hour of course. I can't stay up that late because I gotta take care of the kiddo when he wakes up, and I've been fighting these meds for long enough that things have at least been feeling particularly loopy.

Also, the number of corrections made per line has gone up tremendously, from a normal 0-2 to an insane 75 or thereabouts. OK I didn't actually count. There, I said it. And it's the least enjoyable number in existence. 75. Too much for fifty. Not enough for 100. He coulda been somebody, he coulda been a contender.

Instead 75 is just a schmuck. Just like me. Lookin like I might be too far gone.

ed. note: if that didn't make much/any sense, it wasn't supposed to. It was written under the influence of some sleeping medications which should have put Puneet to sleep earlier than they had. This is what happens when he fights it. TBD whether he will fight and type together again. I hear Don King may be promoting it.

Too Much Time: Part VII

2010-06-02T12:00:00.000-04:00

In our seventh installment of Too Much Time, we have what can only be described as a printer with the world's cheapest ink: a felt tip pen. Probably not the world's cheapest printer though as I know some of those Legos probably weren't cheap.

Sales Advice

2010-05-25T18:00:00.000-04:00

For something like the last fourish years, or approximately the same amount of time Lisa and I have been married, Lisa has been wanting some proper bedroom furniture.

As a male, such trivialities are not a priority for me. Put simply, it's not something I care about. I have a comfortable bed, I have some furniture to put my clothes in. Combined with an ample sized closet, I am afforded enough room for my clothes to reside in relative comfort. All of this despite the fact that approximately 10% of the closet is mine, and my chest contains clothes of which 40% I no longer wear.

However, once we bought the house, we had a little extra cash. I decided that, in my benign munificence, now was the time for us to look at furniture for the bedroom. This was in addition to getting the basement properly carpeted such that we could move a portion of the 10,942,301 toys Nikhil has out of the living, dining and family rooms. The number is a conservative estimate.

Naturally, Lisa was stunned by my proposal one fine day two months ago that we go looking for furniture. Also naturally, she did not question by which cosmic influences such an event could have occurred. Instead, she very calmly agreed, and off we went.

At this point, I have no concept of the cost of bedroom furniture. None. I'm thinking to myself that it'll cost oh, maybe $1500. And that's on the high end.

As it turns out you can barely get a bed and a nightstand for that much, at least one that isn't made of particle board which would last approximately four and a half minutes with a destructive one year-old on the rampage. Amazingly however, Lisa and I happened to agree on one or two sets that we both liked right away.

I'm not going to say that we have different tastes. I will instead say that she believes I have none.

Unfortunately for my wallet, the one we happened to agree upon was over $3300 for all the pieces we wanted. Unfortunately for Lisa, there was no way I was going to pay almost $3300 for bedroom furniture. No way, no how.

Researching the situation further provided all the clarity of mud. Most good sets were pricey. I was then rather unwillingly forced to adjust my target pricing somewhat higher. We then proceeded to look at furniture off and on (although mostly off) for the next couple of months. Contrary to most forms of logic in the known universe, prices went up, not down.

During my researches, I discovered that the manufacturer's showroom was having a 15% off sale on their furniture and decided to give them a call. I did so and was told on the phone that the set could be had for about $2900 out the door with delivery. It was more than I wanted still, but not bad on the whole. $400 less than I had been accustomed thinking. So over the weekend we go in to the store and try to make a deal work.

As it turns out, the salesman was an idiot. The cost was actually closer to $3250, and a savings of $50 was not worth my time. On our way out, the salesman thanked me for being a valued customer.

"I'm not a customer yet."

"I know, but we appreciate that you had to take time out to come visit and your time is probably worth $300 an hour and we understand..." BLAH BLAH BLAH. Yeah, don't try to kiss my ass. You want my patronage? Give me a good deal. You ask me what I'm looking to pay? Don't ignore it. Acknowledge that I said something.

Later in the day on Sunday, I decided to give the original furniture store we saw the set at a call. Just for kicks to see if prices had changed. Memorial day is coming up after all, and allegedly there are sales. I was skeptical however given that it had been my experience that the migratory patterns of prices had gone north, much like the birds did a couple of months ago.

To my surprise, we were offered the best deal yet. Out there, tax and delivery, we were told about $2800. I don't know about you, but I'm all about saving $500 over what someone else was charging, and over 70% MSRP. So I decide to head out there since it's right down the road from work during lunch. I figure, let's get a quote in writing, make sure we can make this thing work, and then we'll go in over the weekend to cross Ts and dot Is.

To my complete and utter dismay, the fellow, a manager, was not in today. Instead, I was accosted by a lackey. This guy didn't let me leave for 45 minutes. During this time I learned that he was pursuing his MBA, a former government contractor, had tried to do the online challenge for Jeopardy but his hard drive crashed the night before, and that he had a California King waterbed in a bedroom set with storage underneath the bed (which is similar to what we're looking at).

The most shocking part of the monologue, I call it a monologue because not much was offered from me during his discourse, came from the revelation that not only does the waterbed keep him warm during the winter, but it also keeps his underwear warm which is stored underneath the bed. I want to know what would possess a salesman of any ilk, to mention his underwear when you're trying to make a sale.

I don't care if you're an underwear salesman! I'm pretty sure that somewhere in the rulebook for retail sales, it is (or should be) rather prominently written "DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES MENTION YOUR UNDERWEAR WHILE TRYING TO MAKE A SALE". Whether he realized I was uncomfortable or not, I don't know. I recall muttering a "oh that must be nice" somewhere around that time because honestly, what kind of response should I have had for that?

Oh, I wish my underwear would stay warm during the winter too? Damn you're one lucky bastard? What other tips do you have for your underwear?

My goal after that point became exiting the property as quickly as possible. Unfortunately, I couldn't do so without leaving some information behind so that I could talk to the guy who I was actually going to be dealing with. That process took a further fifteen minutes from the underwear comment, a period which can charitably be called uncomfortable.

So, here's a bit of advice to all of you budding salesmen (and women): unless explicitly asked, don't mention your underwear. And if you are asked, lie and change the subject immediately.

Unsurprising News

2010-05-24T12:00:00.000-04:00

I received two separate e-mails this weekend informing me of a grave threat, of which I was already abundantly aware.

The text of the police report is as follows.

Beware of Copperheads

An unusually high number of copperhead snakes have recently been reported in Fairfax County. Copperheads are venomous snakes that are found here and throughout Virginia.

Copperhead snake bites have been reported across Fairfax County in the Dranesville (Riverbend Park), Hunter Mill (Reston), and Springfield (Clifton) Districts. Typically, reports of snake bites (and sightings) do not peak until between August and October when baby copperheads are hatching.

Virginia is home to three poisonous species of snakes, the Timber Rattlesnake, the Cottonmouth and the Copperhead. It’s important to remember that while death from snake bite is Virginia is extremely rare, they can be painful and cause a number of symptoms such as; swelling and bruising, sweating, weakness, nausea, vomiting, muscle twitching and a metallic taste in the mouth. It is important to seek medical attention if you or your pets are bitten.

The Fairfax County Wildlife biologist recommends the following safety tips:

• Keep grass and vegetation mowed short on private property – Snakes like to hunt in tall grass
• Stay on the sidewalk and park trails

• Supervise children at all times

• Do not approach a copperhead - NEVER pick up a snake

• Keep dogs on leash at all times

• Do not overturn rocks or logs

• Wear appropriate protective clothing when outdoors

If you are bitten by a snake:

• Stay calm

• Do not apply a tourniquet

• Keep body part immobilized and area level with heart

• Seek immediate medical attention (nearest hospital)

In related news, I find snakes to be among the more creepy animals on this planet. Although I kind of also find fish creepy, but that's just the nature of the fish and perhaps a subject for another entry.

It Burns

2010-05-20T12:00:00.001-04:00

After almost seven years, I am finally in an office. This actually happened last week, but I'm only just now getting to it. The situation isn't ideal, but quite frankly neither was the last one.

I now have a nice view outside, taking in the pretty trees and the building next door. The Tyson's Corner skyline is blissfully absent, covered by all of that green foliage. I imagine the fall will be quite nice.

One thing that I did find superior at my prior lodgings was the lighting situation: all of the lights above our quad cube were out. In case you had not guessed, I am no fan of lights. In fact, I quite abhor the crappy fluorescent lights that are in standard use across the world. There is absolutely nothing natural about them, and I think they give me headaches. That also could be the work...

I actually have a fair amount of light sensitivity though. On even a mildly sunny day, I require prescription sunglasses to drive. If I'm not wearing them, it's just way too bright and I'm constantly squinting. The span of several weeks where I had to do without my prescription sunglasses recently was rather bad. It's my own fault though, as I had lost my sunglasses in the mall. Adding insult to injury, I'm pretty sure that was a very nice stretch of weather with only a day or two of cloudy and/or rainy weather.

So basically, the point I'm driving at here is I'm rather sensitive to light and my officemate rather unfortunately prefers the lights on. When he was gone the past few days on vacation, I got to leave them off and it was fantastic. Prior to his return though, I hopped up on my chair and disabled the lights above my desk. It's not the same as having the entire office's lights off, but at least 60% of the light is now pretty much gone from my desk.

Most of my lighting now comes from the sun.

Perhaps the most amusing part of the whole office move actually occurred yesterday. Two women that I worked with only very briefly showed me a Dilbert cartoon that I reminded them of. The fact that they thought of me when I hardly knew them was shocking enough.

The cartoon involved one of Dilbert's co-workers being moved from a windowless cube he had been sitting at for 25 years into an office with a window. The final box of the strip showed the co-worker charred and smoking from having been exposed to the sun so suddenly. Yeah, I know how that feels.

Personal Finance

2010-05-18T18:00:00.000-04:00

So I've been playing around with ways to handle some of our personal finance stuff. We recently dumped Bank of America to go back to Navy Federal. I personally was pretty sick of BoA nickel and diming us. It really was an issue of death by a million cuts. A few fees here, a few fees there adds up to a whole lot of fees over the course of a year.

No thanks.

Our finances have been somewhat more variable the past couple of months, what with buying the house and making improvements. It's been somewhat difficult to manage, and Navy Federals interface, to put it mildly, blows.

I therefore decided I would start playing around with any of the numerous personal finance aggregation tools. The most popular of which is mint.com. I won't link to them because they suck. They may work immensely well for others, and they're also by far the most popular (especially since being purchased by Intuit, makes of Quicken), but they have had a "temporary issue connecting" since I tried signing up.

That's a fail in my book. I won't go so far as to say epic as I reserve the term epic fail for failures that are truly epic.

I will admit, my knowledge of any of the other sites beyond mint was woeful. I decided to at least look at some of the features that Yodlee offers without necessarily signing up for an account. From what I've been reading, the access that mint.com uses might actually be handled by Yodlee? And if that's the case, it will also most likely fail.

So I started researching and stumbled across Wesabe. I find them intriguing. Manually tagging every transaction is going to be nothing short of a pain in the ass, so some auto-tagging would be extremely nice. But I've been playing around with it for awhile, and it has some real potential. The fact that I can basically create scripts for it to download the bank information is quite nice as well.

I don't like that it won't automatically pull the data on its own, but I have a hunch NFCU doesn't play nice with others to begin with. Therefore, this would pretty much be the only way of going about doing things anyway. I like that they created a Firefox plug-in too. It's a solid piece of work and integrates fairly well.

Some other issues I've run into thus far are that pending transactions don't show up. I think that's partially (or wholly) NFCU's fault because it depends on what they put in the files that go to Wesabe, but at this point, getting an accurate picture of financial status from only Wesabe will be impossible without it. QIF files contain only the most basic of information, QFX files contain a lot more, but NFCU has seen fit to not include pending data in their QFX files (or so I think).

And since pending transactions can take up to a few business days to clear, it is likely that Wesabe will almost always be out of date. That's sad to me.

I'm currently playing around with some of the budgeting features provided in Wesabe, and so far they seem kind of light and not terribly well organized. I've set up targets for most of the tags that I think are important, and it shows how close I am to each target, but I think I'd like more of a checklist for when certain bills get paid and whatnot with a separate area for less concrete monthly budgetary goals. Maybe that's somewhere in the system, but I can't find it yet.

For whatever reason, I was playing around with the latest transactions, and it borked my list of transactions. I have not gone to Dunkin Donuts 15 times in the past two weeks, despite what many of you may think. So we'll see how Wesabe overcomes this particular obstacle. I really don't want to have to re-tag all of my transactions again.

Trouser Conflagration

2010-05-17T23:00:00.002-04:00

I quite prefer the term trouser conflagration over pants on fire. Regardless, earlier today, lies were told, and the requisite garments were cast aflame.

No limbs were hurt in the incident, fortunately.

When we last spoke, I made mention of the thought that the only game I was excited for this year was Civ V. As it turns out, I was horribly wrong. It's the game I'm excited for far and away the most, this much is true.

The other game I'm looking forward to is the expansion to a game I already have (and which is going for the bargain basement price of $7.50 ironically enough on the aforementioned Steam): Tropico 3. It's another city-builder type game, but with some very fun and enjoyable wrinkles. Most notably, it's political. Sure, you build your buildings, grow your food, build your population, blah blah blah.

But, you have to appease various factions of your populace by your actions. Build a Cathedral for the religious? Or spend that money appeasing the intellectuals and develop a tourism based economy? Open the doors of your country to all immigrants, or keep things locked down so the nationalists stay happy? Focus on industry and thumb your nose at the environmentalists? Depends on your population.

Piss any of the larger factions off and you may deal with rebellion and a coup d'etat. Better hope your militarists are loyal, and that you built enough armories and outposts to take care of that situation. What kind of leader do you want to be? Democratically elected? Military dictator? Do you appease the protesters, have them arrested, or perhaps eliminated? A multi-national agricultural conglomerate wants to negotiate an exclusive deal for your crops. They'll provide some free buildings but their prices are 20% lower for five years. What to do?!

The campaign missions are all unique and a hell of a lot of fun. One of the harder ones I'd come across was that as El Presidente, you come from a family of immigrants on a highly nationalistic populace, and your final score has to be to achieve a 60% happiness rating.

Well this game is coming out with a smallish expansion called Absolute Power. I have just now discovered by extremely joyous coincidence that the game came out TODAY. I had no clue until ten seconds ago that it was coming out, and am now quite excited. Too bad my meds will keep me from playing tonight, but at least I'll probably be occupied between now and September until Civ V DESTROYS my life.

It's Deluxe

2010-05-17T17:00:00.001-04:00

About to nerd it up in a couple of ways here. Brace yourselves! For whatever reason, when I hear "Deluxe" I go back to this 2003 Coke commercial.

I imagine its powerful message holds through even to today, seven years later along with the vivid imagery provoked.

Sarcasm was a factor.

I was talking with Aaron earlier today about Super Mario Galaxy 2 for the Wii. Ars apparently had some pretty glowing things to say about it. But I haven't really been able to get into the 3D platformers quite as much, mainly due to the lack of time to invest in them. I've never viewed those games as something I can just pick up and play for 20 minutes, and usually that's all I have.

I then realized that really, there's only one game I'm truly excited for that's coming out this year: Civilization V. And I have to wait until September to get my hands on it. It is also perhaps the lone exception to the 20 minute rule. Also, don't bother looking at the trailer on their site; it's worthless and a waste of your time.

They've made quite a few interesting changes to the gameplay, and in fact to the (for lack of a better term) infrastructure of the game itself. It's now powered by Steam. Yes, that Steam. I think overall it's positive given that previous iterations of Civ's multiplayer have had lackluster multiplayer implementations at best. I don't like that you have to be connected to the internet to play, but since I always am it's not the biggest of issues. I think my preference would still be to have a stand-alone game though.

What irks me the most is when developers and publishers start trying to do some questionable things, like releasing a Deluxe edition with additional content, especially for a game like Civ. I can understand the whole limited edition thing with a special box and a separate soundtrack and crap like that. But when you start setting aside actual content for a "Deluxe Edition" it's a problem. In this case, if you buy the deluxe edition you get an extra Civilization you can play.

So at this point, in relative comparison to the regular edition of the game, you're giving a brand new side to the player for $10 more (in addition to some other content). It raises some other questions though, especially given the history of the franchise and expansion packs. Will they release this Civ in a future expansion pack for all, or does it remain exclusive to the Deluxe edition? Basically, if I drop the extra $10 now, is it going to become a moot point in six months with the next big patch or expansion?

I'm already buying the game, there's no question of that. I just want to make sure that if I choose to get the deluxe edition, it's going to be worth it to me. And right now, I'm far from sold on that.

Under Siege

2010-05-03T14:00:00.000-04:00

For the past several months, nature has essentially kept us under siege. A careful watch has been kept by our collective mother earth to ensure that I don't get out of line.

First the historic (and joyous!) snowfall from the winter conspired to keep me from leaving the house for an extended period of time. The next volley was fired when squirrels decided to resume their residence in our attic. Damn squirrels. Finally, there appears to have been an invasion of poisonous snakes.

The latest incident involves another of the notorious Northern Copperhead snakes. I shall walk you through the latest harrowing incident.

Last night, about 11:45 PM or so, I realized I didn't remember where I put my Kindle. Fearing I may have left it at the gas station when I was getting my inspection done, I decided I needed to go check the car right then and there, because I was worried. I had also slipped in some prescriptions I had recently gotten from the doctor in there, so I was doubly concerned.

It was the kind of worry that just wouldn't go away, much like an unwanted house guest. First you try to make them go away politely. When this proves to be thoroughly unsuccessful, you resort to less subtle means of gradual harshness. Finally, you are left to do nothing else but ignore.

I was well on the pathway to extreme harshness, nearly at ignorance, when I promptly failed in spectacular fashion.

So I went downstairs. Perhaps in some sense a cosmic warning was delivered to me: don't go outside. It was a warning that I, in my supreme idiocy, utterly and completely ignored.

As I reached the bottom of the stairs, I slammed my foot right into Nikhil's baby gate. Hopping around on one foot from the pain, I then slammed my shoulder into the wall in the hallway. Now realizing where I was, I turned the light on such that these hijinks may come to a swift conclusion.

Little did I know that in five minutes, slamming my foot into the baby gate would be among the least of my concerns. For the moment however, I was blissfully ignorant of all save for my foot.

I hobbled my way to my keys and then went out the front door not considering for a second that I was marching right into the bosom of danger. I have always wanted to use the word bosom with regards to danger, something I can now check off of my list.

Went right out the front door, down the walkway, around the front of the car to the rear driver's-side door, unlocking it keylessly on my way. Two bright flashes from the hazard lights briefly pierced the darkness. I went through and looked around in the back of the car with no success.

Closed the door, began walking around the car again, locking the car as I went when the brief flash of the hazard lights (in a fitting bout of irony) did just that: illuminated a hazard. I stopped about three feet short of the tangled, loose coil sitting in front of the garage, and slowly backed away.

Did I just see what I thought I saw?

The coil moved. Tightened.

"Hm. That's no good."

I locked the car again to illuminate the area once more. More tightening. The distinctive, unmistakable hourglass formation of the body of a snake, probably over two feet long flashed.

"Was that hissing?"

Once more I locked the car.

"Yup. That's hissing. Shit."

I had gradually been edging away backwards as I saw the snake tightening it's coil, definite defensive posture. I had shorts on, and no shoes. A "warning bite" would be less than optimal here. Suddenly, a quick lunge! I had no warning of it at all and was left supremely unprepared.

The snake was clearly bent on my not passing that way in front of the car. As if to say, "You shall not passsssssss." Think parseltongue. Yes I did just bust out a Harry Potter reference on you.

I got the message. It was not a difficult one to decipher by any means. I turned around, walked the long way around the car to the front walk, keeping my eyes peeled constantly on the ground for any of its mates. Got inside the house, locked the door extra fast (just in case the snake were to evolve overnight and figure out the usage and picking of a deadbolt), flicked the light off and ran upstairs.

It was freaky as hell. You see that kind of stuff on TV, but you sure as hell don't expect it in front of your garage. This isn't Australia. We don't have venomous snakes and scorpions and fire ants just wandering around waiting for the unsuspecting foot to pass by. I was not a fan.

I woke Lisa up and told her about it. She proceeded to have nightmares about giant snakes all night.

My bad.

Me? I actually slept really well. But I guess sleep meds help with that. Oh, and I did end up finding the Kindle. It was inside, right next to my bed. I'm an idiot.

Market Analysis and Insight

2010-04-30T00:00:00.002-04:00

Well, I won't lie. I could though. It's my blog after all, not yours. These are my toys and I don't need to share either since it's not in my rules.

So here's the part where I'm not lying. Two of my favorite posts recently have been on the iPhone and the HP purchase of Palm. And both of those posts, believe it or not, were not done with any extensive research. I sat down, remembered some stuff I'm almost constantly reading or hearing, form my analysis right then and there, and write it out.

It's one of my favorite things to do, research and analysis. I've always been a conceptual guy who can visualize the larger picture. Implementation I need to work on.

But I can do research and analysis like a champ here, because it's my sandbox. So, I don't know how often I'm going to do it from here on out, but maybe I'll take a regular look at what's going on with a product or an industry, what impact it's having, that kind of stuff. It'll perhaps help with my urge to do this kind of research and analysis.

Kind of crazy when I find this, 1) amusing; and, 2) a part of what I do in my spare time.

New tag for it too: Analysis. I'll retroactively tag the Palm and Apple posts with that tag.

If you've got a special request, drop me a line any of a number of ways and I'll begin looking into your issue. If it's worthy (and I use it), you get some change sent to you. A buck? Fifty cents? I'm leaning towards something with forty-two in it. Forty-two cents? Maybe I'll let you have control of the blog and put out your own posts for a day. I don't know, I haven't decided yet, but if you've got something worthy you want me to write about, drop me a line and I'll figure out some sort of compensation.

I'll take care of you. Who loves ya babe?

HPalm

2010-04-29T21:00:00.003-04:00

Didn't see this acquisition coming, not by a long shot. Much of the speculation over the past several weeks has centered around the likes of HTC or Lenovo purchasing Palm. As a user of webOS, I found the purchase to be quite interesting for the future of the platform.

While it's not superior to its competitors in every way, it certainly is an extremely solid and innovative mobile operating system. Lisa picked up on usage within a day, which is quite a feat for Palm. True multi-tasking? An expanding application catalog? Multi-touch? Similar (or better) hardware capabilities than the current gen iPhone? Amazing user interface?

It's no small wonder that Engadget rated it as their favorite mobile operating system last year.

However, the story up until now for webOS has been potential unrealized. When webOS was first announced, Palm's share prices went through the rough. Yesterday's closing value was less than a third of it's peak earlier last year. Put simply, marketing has been horrible. Unabashedly awful. Miserable.

It doesn't help that Sprint had exclusivity on the webOS platform from June to January. Sprint's been having its own issues and is only just now really starting to turn things around. First uptick in quarterly revenues in something like a couple of years. Much lower losses. Average revenue per user at a respectable $55/user (although that slipped by a buck in the last quarter, it was $56 before). But staying exclusively on the nation's third largest mobile network for seven months didn't help the platform very much.

When the plus versions came out for the two phones Palm does make (on Verizon in January), the Pre and Pixi were marketed terribly. This was mostly Verizon's fault. Granted Palm's advertisements were still crappy, Verizon's were hideous. I honestly don't know who's were worse.

Couple crappy Verizon marketing with the superb marketing for Droid on Verizon, and you can start to see where the picture for Palm was starting to get a little hazy. User adoption was slower than projected. Revenues were waaayyyy down. They had resorted to cutting all kinds of deals with various providers to try and spur sales. And it smacked a little bit of desperation.

About a month and a half after the Verizon roll-out, rumors started to fly. Cashflow problems. Senior executives deploying golden parachutes. And then the numbers came out for Verizon sales: significantly below expectations. Could Palm become a prime takeover target? You bet.

The question at that point became less a matter of if, and more a matter of when. Perhaps even more importantly, who?

Even without webOS, Palm would have been quite the intriguing jewel for any company with the resources to purchase. Their extensive patent portfolio is larger than perhaps almost anyone else's in the mobile space, and yet they haven't really sued many people for infringement even though seemingly they had the ability to do so. Anybody looking to either (re)enter the mobile space (HP, Lenovo, Dell) or strengthen their position there (Apple, HTC, Microsoft, Nokia) could've been a potential buyer.

HTC bowed out fairly early in the process, even though they could've used both the patents and webOS. Microsoft is rolling out Windows Phone 7 shortly, so they have their own OS to tout. Nokia has Symbian which is popular overseas, but not in the US. Plus it really is fairly outdated. Apple is Apple and "don't need no badges". Dell was out of the question after some of their new handsets were leaked (and they do look tasty).

That leaves Lenovo (as the most bandied about name) and thus seemingly the most likely to purchase. It would've made sense because Lenovo outside of Asia doesn't have much of a mobile presence, and they're looking to develop one everywhere they aren't already competing. HP was the dark horse; nobody expected them to swoop in and pay for Palm. HP used to make a series of well regarded mobile devices (the IPAQ series), but currently they only have two: one for AT&T and one for Vodaphone.

But let's take a look at the smartphone market. I don't have the figures off hand, but growth has been nothing short of astounding. HP wanted a piece of that pie. It makes sense though, doesn't it? They've got their fingers in almost every other technical product market: networking, peripherals, desktops, laptops. But not mobiles. That sauce can only be described as weak at best.

So, let's review here. Palm's big weakness? Money. They don't have the cash resources to really market what they've got. WebOS was designed to be scaled, but Jon Rubenstein publicly stated on a few occasions that Palm didn't have the resources to really explore that area. Palm's strengths? Name brand recognition, a kick-ass mobile platform, and an innovative mentality. Oh yeah, and they carry hardly any debt which is always attractive in takeovers.

HP's only weakness is this: they haven't invested in anything for their mobile division. All of their devices have been Windows Mobile based, and that is a pretty big dinosaur compared to the other current gen platforms. So what does HP do? For the comparatively minor cost of $1.2 billion (which is a bargain at twice the price given what Palm's shares were even nine months ago) they address their weakness. And that's after they paid a 23% premium on Palm's share price from yesterday. No other investments into R&D, nothing that takes time. Regulatory and shareholder approval takes less time than R&D and focus groups.

Instantly HP has bought themselves a foothold in the rapidly expanding mobile space. It really does look as if it's a complimentary arrangement. This thinking is only re-enforced when HP makes comments to the effect of "we're doubling down on webOS". Talk has swirled around HP releasing some slates with webOS as the platform. There was some concern when first announced yesterday with the usual doom and gloom crowd saying "OH NOESS!!!111!!!!!11 WEBOS IS DEAD!!!!111!!!!!!111!" At first glance, this doesn't look to be the case.

The question that still persists is this: how's Palm going to be integrated into HP? Palm's a quirky kind of company with their own unique culture. HP is, for lack of a better word, a little more on the traditional side. How heavy-handed is HP going to be? On the face of it, this appears to be a win-win. HP gets instant mobile street-cred and a huge patent portfolio. Palm gets money. The devil is, as usual, in the details. And it's in the details that the success or failure of webOS specifically, and Palm in general will be determined.

No Time

2010-04-29T00:00:00.000-04:00

I realized I had three evite invitations that I had not responded to, all three for different weekends.

I then, with a deftness that belies my current reduced size, declined all three.

The reasoning is simple: I don't have hardly any weekends free between now and the end of the year. And yes, I wish I was kidding.

I'll walk you through it just so I can recall everything myself.

This weekend I'll skip because there's too much happening in two days. The weekend of May 7th, we're in Boston visiting an old friend. The weekend of the 14th, we're in Pennsylvania one day, and at a housewarming the other. Incidentally, we had to decline another invitation to a different housewarming. The 21st, I'm not sure. We were going to Richmond, but I think that may have been cancelled in favor of something else. Memorial day weekend, we have my nephew's first birthday party and Lisa's parents are coming up.

On to June! First weekend we're in Vegas for Brendan and Jill's bachelor/bachelorette party. The next weekend we're in Richmond as Lisa's sister is visiting. The weekend of the 18th is Father's day and we're spending at least a day out on that. The following weekend we're celebrating Lisa's birthday.

July is a special kind of crazy. Three separate weekends, three separate weddings, three separate cities. The first weekend is July 4th, I know we have at least one event that weekend. Weekend of the 9th, wedding #1 on Long Island. Weekend of the 16th, wedding #2 in DC ('grats Brendan) and celebrating my birthday. Weekend of the 23rd, not sure but I feel like there's something. Weekend of the 30th, wedding #3 in West Virginia.

August is interesting and potentially the most enjoyable. First weekend, I'm not sure of. Weekend of the 13th, wedding. Weekend of the 20th, off to Mexico. Weekend of the 27th, back from Mexico. The following weekend is labor day.

September is blissfully wedding free. October has one, maybe two if Lisa decides we're going to the one in Vegas. November has a wedding in Baltimore. So for you kids keeping score at home, six confirmed weddings, possibly seven. Of the seven, travel is required for four, five if you include Baltimore on a Friday.

We are apparently too popular for our own good. This happens to us every summer, and we've actually already turned down so many other things it's crazy. I'm going to need Mexico by the time all is said and done.

Triple T

2010-04-27T14:00:00.000-04:00

Been having one of those days and decided I needed a little more Triple T in my life. I then realized that I thought I should share. No joke, it took me a couple of minutes to realize it was Tuesday, which as we all know is really Monday in disguise.

Nobody likes Tuesdays.

Without further ado, I give you the extended works of "Terrible" Terry Tate, Office Linebacker.

Terry's World:

Draft Day:

Office Athlete of the Century:

Vacation:

Sensitivity Training:

There are a couple of other "shorts" but they're not nearly as good. Sensitivity Training itself was done a year and a half after Vacation, and you can tell. Still pretty funny though.

Heebie-Jeebies

2010-04-19T12:00:00.000-04:00

Apparently the term heebie-jeebies is actually in the dictionary. I therefore shall avail myself of its usage right about now to inform you that I have them, the heebie-jeebies. And yes, official usage is hyphenated.

Of late, Lisa has been quite the runner. In her quest to lose the baby weight, of which she has doing far better than me, she will at the very least run a few miles a day, or take classes at the rec center, or other such exercise. It's what she does, and it's been working really well for her.

Over the weekend, Lisa was doing her thing with Mel, a very good friend of ours (as in Tim and Mel) and they were walking on the path around the lake that's rather close to the house. The past couple of weeks have provided Lisa and Nikhil with a bounty of wildlife on their excursions: deer, foxes, snakes, that kind of stuff. It is the latter that I will focus on.

I'll be the first to admit, I am not what one would consider "outdoorsy" (which apparently is also a word?). I do not harmonize with nature. We have a mutual understanding really. I'll do what I can to make sure things are clean and taken care of out there, and nature will send pollen up my (nearly) every orifice in an effort to get me to stay the fuck inside. It's an effective strategy, and one that I would congratulate nature upon were I not too busy sneezing or blowing my nose.

Well, nature has once again given me one more reason to mind my own business. On Lisa's latest run, she came across what appears to be most commonly known as the northern copperhead. In other words, one of the only three venomous snakes in the state.

And here's where it gets good. Were it not for Mel telling her to stop, Lisa was going to try to pick it up. As you can see, she's far more comfortable with nature than I am. I don't go picking up snakes. I don't go picking up most animals in fact, wild or domesticated. Hell, I try to avoid picking the cat up if possible (she has sharp claws of which she has made clear in absolutely no uncertain terms that she would prefer us to leave alone; usually she wins).

Lisa attempted to assuage my fears some. She said that the copperhead bites "aren't usually fatal" because they give a warning bite.

Oh goody. A warning bite? That makes it all better. And since they "aren't usually fatal" how about we just go ahead and starting playing with knives too? That's not usually fatal either.

Fortunately, Lisa and I have come up with a new plan: leave the animals alone.

Eternal Questions

2010-04-17T00:00:00.003-04:00

I seriously wonder whether other couples and married people have the same conversations as Lisa and me. There are many issues that we find ourselves on the opposite ends of, the most recent (and serious) of which is the following: pancakes or waffles?

Lisa, for whatever reason, could probably eat a whole stack of waffles. I'm not even remotely close to kidding. Not in the slightest. I, on the other hand, prefer the quiet majesty of the noble pancake.

A pancake is smooth, unblemished, containing the tasty virtue of natures perfect shape: a circle. The waffle is coarse. Unsophisticated. What type of breakfast food requires pockets to hold syrupy goodness? The syrup is absorbed into a pancake, pockets not required.

Typically we'll alternate back and forth between the lowly waffle and the supreme pancake. Lisa will make at least two batches of waffles for every one batch of pancakes. I will have one, maybe two waffles, Lisa has however much she has (which is frequently more than two) and saves the rest. Within a week the waffles are missing, never to be seen nor heard from again.

Pancake consumption is an altogether different story, consisting of a great degree more dignity. No more than a couple of pancakes per person, easily within the confines of a batch. Why? Because with pancakes you don't need to have so many. With a pancake, less is more.

There is obviously a great deal of passion involved in the debate, and admittedly Lisa is probably more passionate about her waffles. However, her passion does not necessarily make her correct.

EDIT @12:05 AM (in other words five minutes after posting): Lisa will probably hate the fact that I mentioned how much she likes waffles and her overall consumption patterns. These are the bullets I take for you, dear reader. Please also know that exaggeration may or may not be involved. As with many things in life, information is provided on an as-is basis with no express warranty provided. Such is the way of things.

Lawn

2010-04-16T00:00:00.001-04:00

Click through to the link and you will see a whole new look, coupled with the same great flavor you're used to. It's like Coca-Cola Classic, but in a new revisionist Pepsi can (as PepsiCo will do every four or five years). I think I just committed a cardinal sin by crossing my soda references, but I remain undaunted, unchallenged!

Yes, something like almost a year and a half later, I finally found a template that I don't hate, and one that isn't stock with blogger. A bonus is that your grandmother doesn't have this template on her blog either.

Of course, all these young whipper-snappers with their twitters don't even have time to write out a sentence longer than 140 characters. What happened to the times? To further convince you of the impending endtimes for humanity as we know it, an actual tweet, unedited. Raw, like Eddie Murphy, bitches.

AYYO-obsessed WAS EFFIN TUFF! IM NOT BEIN BIASED /NOTHIN BUT THTS MY FAVE MOVIE-its was fun how the audience joined in with oohz nd aw shets!

As usual, I wish I was kidding. People actually "talk" like this. I don't even think Google can translate this. Let's check, shall we?

Google has attempted to detect the language and wrongly assumed "English". Perhaps some arcane dialect I am less aware of? Tweetise? Nah, I prefer Twit.

How about babel fish?! Yeah babel fish failed to even have the ability to detect the language.

At this point, all I need is a cane with a beautiful lawn, bellowing at the scamps running amongst the neighborhood. I feel old. Blogging is just fine thank you. You can have your fancy Twits. Oh, and "GET OFF MY LAWN!"

Damn kids.

Conflict

2010-04-14T00:00:00.002-04:00

Perhaps one of the largest criticisms I receive with regards to my writing style is I typically write like I talk: wordy and highly conversational. I've covered this topic before, clearly a long time ago because I can't even find the damn post talking about it. And as I'm also far too lazy to try looking it up, well, it is what it is.

Anyway, formal writing was never my thing, but as I proceed down this whole writing path, I find myself conflicted with regards to which way I should go.

I like writing. I also have a pretty sarcastic personality (although not as bad as some). And as I continue to write, the question becomes: do I explore the casual or do I work on getting my real writing better? The reason this is an issue is because I'd kind of like to do more of it and have thought about where I could take it.

Lisa rather constantly makes fun of my writing. Just last night as I was writing some financial stuff out she called me out on several sentences where my verbs weren't in the right place or certain things weren't modified. I don't know, I don't remember. What I do remember is not giving a damn. But should I? She's always been pretty much nothing short of fantastic when it comes to formal writing.

What I really wish I could do is write like Douglas Adams. I've read a lot of books. In fact, I almost always have at least one book going at a time. And of all the authors I've ever read, he is perhaps the best. His style is absolutely brilliant. It's frank, yet humorous. The way he wrote his books had several different storylines going in multiple directions; then, within the last quarter of the book, everything just came together and made sense.

It helps that his books were always hilarious. Unfortunately, I rather lack that kind of developed humor. I was going to toss in a throwaway joke there, but that's just cheesy. I wasn't strong enough to pull it off.

On the flip side of Adams, you have one of my other favorite authors: Frederick Forsyth. His books are all much more serious and they all have a grain of truth to them. In fact, they often start out with facts told in a journalistic, almost narrative style before the book turns off into something that looks and feels real, but isn't. A big hallmark of Forsyth's books is the massive amount of research he puts into it. For example, if you look at (arguably) his most famous novel, The Day of the Jackal, the research he put into how fake passports can be procured actually raised the ire of several governments.

Very authentic with an awesome style of writing. You pick up one of his books and it's damn near impossible to put it down. Next thing you know, five hundred pages have gone by and you can't wait to get to the end.

The problem is, you can't wait to get to the end of my posts for very different reasons.

iPhone OS 4

2010-04-12T12:00:00.001-04:00

Never in a million years did you think I'd have that for a title, eh?

Well, I've been in a bit of a funk lately, hence the overall lack of posts. And I've decided I'm going to try to get back to doing something I actually enjoy: writing. I may not be very good at it, but whatever. That's why it's my blog, not yours.

You can play somewhere else if you don't like it.

So yeah, the latest iteration of the iPhone OS, version four. Supposedly better than the three before it (hence the numbering system I assume). I know many people who have purchased the iPhone, a rather uncomfortable amount actually. Most of them deluded into believing that they have something not available anywhere else. Not true, but whatever. I'm here to talk about the next iteration, and why it's going to still work despite what Apple is doing to its development community.

For those of you not aware, Apple is doing several things to the next OS, two of them particularly curious. The first is the addition of "multitasking", the second is the addition of section 3.3.1 into the terms of use for application developers.

I put multitasking in quotes for the iPhone because it deserves it. It's multitasking really in name only. There are only seven different types of applications that can supposedly be run simultaneously, and even then it's not really a true multitasking implementation. It essentially freezes the "multitasked" application and keeps a service for it running in the background. It's a relatively elegant solution that allows battery life to be maximized while giving Apple the ability to say they do multitasking when in reality it's saving a state, and really of only certain kinds of applications.

It's a genius marketing move. Only the 3GS and up are getting the "multitasking" upgrade, so Apple gets to sell more hardware and clear its inventory out for the next hardware revision, all while getting to say that their OS is now so advanced it can do more than one thing at a time. We'll leave out the fact that every other next-gen OS (Android, WebOS) not only already handled multitasking, but handle it so much better and without the restrictions Apple is laying down.

But anyway, it's a brilliant marketing tool as it gets those people with the first gen iPhones, those who have some contracts running out right around June (when they bought their first iPhone 3Gs or iPhone "classics") to come back to AT&T and upgrade for another two years. There's a reason Apple is where they are in the market: they take advantage of their ~~sheep~~ ~~suckers~~ customers.

The second, and altogether riskier (by far) move they're making with 4.0 is section 3.3.1. A simple Google search will give you some highlights as far as what they're doing. To sum up the summations and highlights, Apple is now dictating how developers will create their code. And they're doing it for pretty much one reason, and one reason only: Adobe. They want to kill Flash.

Many people will say Flash needs to die. There are far too many advertisements, videos and Flash-only web pages that are too much of a bother. These points are not at all without merit. But at this point, it's basically Apple saying, we're not only not going to support the Flash standard, we don't want any third party compiled code to go into the iPhone either, specifically stuff that can be used across multiple platforms.

Either you develop for Apple, by hand (and without any third party tools like Adobe CS5), or you develop for everybody else using cross-platform capabilities. If Apple had made this proclamation with the original iPhone, they'd have been DOA. At that time, nobody would have chosen to exclusively create applications for the iPhone.

But now that the iPhone has such a large user base (at least in the States, slightly less so overseas), they can tell all of the developers "you're either with us or against us, there is no middle ground". So here's what's going to happen: the larger developers will still get by because they can either strong-arm Apple into approving those apps or they'll have the resources to make it work anyway; and the smaller developers who only know how to code for the iPhone will continue to churn out fifty different iFart applications.

The squeeze happens in the middle. Those mid-sized and smaller companies (and more ambitious individuals) will have to make a decision. Make applications for Apple, or make applications for everybody else. And the iPhone ecosystem is sufficiently large and valuable that many people will be bent against their will to devoting resources to the iPhone, and not to anyone else.

All in all, it's a pretty brilliant strategy. You're forcing your end consumers to upgrade now because the software won't run on their shiny toys they once thought so much of, and you're forcing developers to make a choice: are you with Apple, or are you against them? And given the user base, most developers will choose to continue down the Apple application path. Apple is simultaneously strengthening its own hand and weakening its enemies by depriving them of content.

Steve Jobs is a bastard. Positively brilliant, but a bastard nonetheless. You can only have the balls to pull this kind of stunt when you've already established a firm grip on the market. It's not for nothing that Apple is at or near the top of most hated companies.

Season of Change

2010-03-19T12:00:00.000-04:00

For whatever reason, Redskins season ticket holders are forced to pay for the next seasons' tickets in February. We don't actually get the tickets in hand until a week or two before preseason starts. This year though, it won't matter to me. Not anymore.

I have a momentous announcement to make: I can no longer financially support the Washington Redskins ownership. I have canceled our season tickets.

After ten years of repeatedly being kicked in the groin, I've had it. I can take a hint. No matter how many fresh starts Dan Snyder professes to make, no matter how many new coaches and splashy free agent signings are made, I'm done with paying him my money.

I am and will continue to be a die-hard Redskins fan. I'm just not willing to give them any of my money. I support the team, players and coaching staff, but not the ownership. Kind of like the war in Iraq. I support the soldiers, those brave men and women in uniform putting their lives on the line. But I didn't support the people that sent them there.

For far too long has Dan Snyder ignored the fundamental basics of building a team. Teams aren't bought, they're grown. Every team Snyder has tried to put together has been with shoddy construction. The house that he has built has always had a terrible foundation.

Snyder has been more focused on selling jerseys than he has on actually trying to put in the effort to build a winner. The lack of focus on building a quality offensive line would have been laughable had it been the Cowboys. Instead, we had four separate starters at right guard alone last season. That would be one less starter than the Giants had on their entire line from 2006-2009.

Snyder's goals have always been to see what he can do to try and get something done as quick as possible. He's the equivalent of a day trader following the stock exchange. Here's a secret Mr. Snyder: true wealth is created and amassed over time. So, I'm done pouring $1,000+ down you a season, only to have seen my beloved Redskins go from one of the most respected franchises in the league, to a laughing-stock.

When you took over the team, they were the 4th most popular team in the league. Now they're 17th. When you took over the team, they were a playoff contender with the #2 offense in the league and division champions. Now you have a bunch of matadors for offensive linemen. I defy any quarterback to be successful with that kind of protection.

So here's the deal Mr. Snyder, when you start to learn how to spend your money wisely, I may trust you to do something with it. Until then? Well, I'll set aside my season ticket money and buy a bigger TV.

Pretentious

2010-03-17T17:00:00.002-04:00

I was at a wedding recently (I won't mention the timeframe so as to protect the innocent), but it was relatively recent. The wedding was nice, small, well executed. Given the bride, I wouldn't expect much less.

The food was good. The people at my table, well, I wanted to hit them (no offense babe, you had no way of really knowing my tolerance for idiocy had gone down so much). The main offenders at this table were a family of three, older guy, older woman, 17 year old son. Let's set aside the fact that whenever I attempted to say anything in conversation with these people, I was repeatedly talked over and interrupted. That alone was enough for me to want to maintain a 50 feet of distance between me and them.

But the more they talked, the more they bothered me. I'll say a few words about the parents, then focus on the son. The parents lacked the overall capacity for independent thought, which was unfortunate. I pointed this out to Lisa later siting significant sources based upon their conversation. Even she was hard-pressed to disagree.

But the son, geez. This kid is apparently a race car driver in Europe doing Formula 3 racing for VW. He's 17, so I understand that he hasn't seen much. I get that. But I have several problems with him. First, try talking about something else not related to cars or racing. Want to make friends? Try identifying with people on something other than cars. It might help.

Lisa said something along the lines of, "Doesn't he talk about anything else?"

"What else has he done? He's 17 and spent most of his life racing go karts and cars. What did you expect?" So obviously I expected some immaturity.

Where I draw the line is the pretentiousness. What do I mean by that? Simple example.

How do you say the company name of Hyundai? HUN-day. Something along those lines, right? This fool kept calling it HOON-die. Someone else at the table would say (not me as I had written off the lot of them as a lost cause), you mean HUN-day?

"No, [HOON-die]."

I wanted to say, "You realize that they even say HUN-day in the commercials, right?"

Surely some of you will say, "Well maybe that's how they say it in Korea and he's just better informed than you are."

I considered it, until I put five seconds of thought into the process. The technical pronunciation in Korean is "Hee-un-day". Nowhere is it pronounced HOON-die. It was right around then that I had decided to write him off as a complete and utter pretentious fool. I did not bother talking to any of them the rest of the night, and both Lisa and I spent as much time away from our table as possible. We did still manage to have a good enough time though. The people at all of the other tables were far more pleasant to talk to.

I guess some people are just beyond saving. Admittedly, it doesn't take much for me to walk away from things that bug the crap out of me. But Lisa? You know it's impressive when they even get on her nerves.

EDIT:
It's funny because prior to this point there had been a pretty solid 30-45 minutes of conversation which steadily degraded to a point where, at least from our end, it was no longer salvageable. I sat back and re-read this (after it had already got up) and realized that, if this was the only thing people understood me to make a foundation of judgment on, I would be the pretentious one. Please don't take it that way. It's rare that I make such an effort despite having been rebuffed so many times.

Where it all actually started going downhill was less than five minutes in, when they told me I was wrong about my snowfall statistics. Anybody who knows me would understand that I don't make mistakes when it comes to snow. My boy Sean can attest to that. Asked at a dinner party at his house what the seasonal snowfall had been in Arlington for this winter, I was 0.1 inches off (I said 54.8 inches, in actuality it was 54.9).

Roundup!

2010-03-15T12:00:00.001-04:00

Haven't done one of these in quite some time, but I just felt like writing a little bit, not a lot. At some point there will be a flurry of posts, as my brain is oozing thoughts at a rate that has not been paralleled for some time. And oozing, as I'm sure you know, is of dubious assistance to anyone's health.

Organization, however, appears to be a problem. Having said that, here's a roundup of interesting news and tidbits from around your interwebs.

Apparently we have some options in dealing with Chinese currency undervaluation.
The excellent Dr. Jeff Masters weighs in on the upside-down winter.
SCOTUS political impartiality? Perhaps not?
I normally stay away from the HuffPo, but this Texas textbook stuff is concerning.
In case you've been living under a rock, Civilization V is coming out this fall. If I mysteriously disappear for weeks on end, you now know where to find me.
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and Sony knows it. This may be the subject of a future post too, and it's not as harsh as one might think.
Speaking of the Move, apparently Nintendo thinks both Sony and Microsoft should be blushing.
There are apparently still women out there who don't quite understand two things: men and the internet.
President Obama has, sadly it seems, decided to listen to the ~~thugs~~ executives at the MPAA/RIAA instead of, you know, people. Score another win for corporate greed: political affiliation doesn't matter when the money behind it is still the same. I'll save further editorializing for later.

OK, I think that ought to be enough random news tidbits for the day.

Willingly

2010-03-15T00:00:00.001-04:00

The weekend was a drab one, to say the least. The weather was extremely gray, wet and dreary. This was, on the whole, not entirely a bad thing though.

As it was so gray and dull, this kept Lisa in the house (which is where I preferred being). The last several weekends have been ridiculously busy, and my weeks have also been similarly busy. So I rather needed a weekend where next to nothing was done but staying around the house and (occasionally) doing things, like laundry and the periodic clean-up. And lots of playing with Nikhil of course.

One thing that had been weighing on my mind for some time now had been the fact that I didn't have a Will. It's not a thing which most people really think about to be honest, at least not that I know of. But with the world being the place it is, I know that stuff happens.

I am fully aware of my mortality, and in some respects, even comfortable with it. I think it's an important thing to know that yes, I can bleed. That yes, I have limits. Although at times it's also important to not necessarily know what those limits are. I believe the wisdom is in drawing the appropriate line between the two.

Nonetheless, with a trip up to Boston for the weekend coming up in May, one in which Nikhil will not be joining us, I knew it was important to provide a sort of plan in case the unthinkable happens. I'm not going to lie, I took care of it the quick and dirty way, but it's something.

I don't normally trust such important things to software. Having been involved in the design of software, I know how it goes. But, given my current situation and assets, it's a start, and that's how I'm looking at it. I used Quicken WillMaker to create a Will. At some point in the future, perhaps within the next year or so, I'll probably take what I've got and go to an actual lawyer to really sit down and discuss things.

But as I said, it's a start, and it means the most important things are down on paper. Like who Nikhil would go to in case something happened. Who their backups are. Where my property and assets are going. Who the executor of the Will is going to be. That kind of stuff.

We also happened to make one for Lisa which was ridiculously easy given that the software has a feature allowing you to "duplicate for spouse". So we did that, made a couple of changes, and Lisa's was done in a matter of ten minutes. It worked out nicely, and now I'm a little more comfortable knowing that I have something down.

It kind of scares me to think about what Nikhil would go through if anything did happen to either Lisa or myself, but I at least know that now we've planned for it (unsavory though it is to consider). I assume it's the responsible thing to do as a parent?

Too Much Time: Part VI

2010-03-02T20:00:00.002-05:00

Been awhile since I've had an entry in my Too Much Time series, but I'd say I have another worthy entrant. The video truly does need to be seen to be believed.

I give you, OK Go.

They're the same ones who did the treadmill video by the way...

That Time of Year

2010-03-02T08:00:00.000-05:00

Unfortunately, it's that time of year.

Calvin and Hobbes had a very unique and wonderful magic for conveying thoughts and messages. Fifteen years later that is still quite obviously the case.

Tonight's "event" is one I'd had pegged as the last hurrah for winter, and really it looks more like it's going to be the last gasp of an historic winter. One which broke most records for snowfall. Maybe a couple of inches? Maybe?

I'd have preferred to go out with a bang, but alas, I don't control these things. Could something still develop within the next couple of weeks? Yes. Will it probably still average out being colder than average? Yes. Do I expect to see much snow from here on out? No. And if that changes, I'll throw up a new Calvin and Hobbes for you.

2/25/2010 - 500!

2010-02-24T14:00:00.000-05:00

This is post #500 for me, and a big shock that it's weather related.

As expected, the NWS came out with a Winter Weather Advisory, generally calling for 1-3 inches in the DC Metro. Generally speaking I'd say that's probably pretty close. It looks like the soundings for the area support that view as well.

Model Output: Still so much variability with what's going to happen. Minor changes mean big differences in what's actually going to happen. The models are still showing a mostly offshore track, and I'm still not completely sold on it.

The GFS still has more precipitation down here when compared to the NAM. And the NAM has still been more accurate. The issue is that we're probably looking at two different shots at snow within the next 48-60 hours. So while the first shot they can speak of with a certain degree of confidence, the second shot (while it is in the process of making that neat-o q formation) that is quite uncertain.

We could get nothing tonight. Seriously. We could also get five inches or more.

Analysis: It's haywire. North and east get the primary axis of precipitation, from around Philly, north. Boston and NYC are looking like a lot of rain mixed in with some snow, more snow for NYC though. Philly/Wilmington might be in the sweet spot, again.

I can't help but to stress how uncertain the situation is. This thing could bomb out and cause us a lot of trouble. It could also be a dud. Currently I'm leaning towards dud, but the NWS must have seen something to issue a Winter Storm Watch last night?

Probabilities...

DC area:
Less than 2 inches: 30%
2-4 inches: 40%
4-8 inches: 20% (warning criteria)
8+ inches: 10%

Wilmington:
Less than 3 inches: 5%
3-6 inches: 15%
6-12 inches: 50%
12+ inches: 30%

I had to tweak Wilmington's scale some. I originally had a scale similar to DC's, but found it inadequate. I like the high side of 6-12 better with a decent shot at more than that. Assuming things don't change drastically, I'm going to stick with a basic 2-4 around DC (less south and west), and probably more like 10-14ish around Wilmington. Remember, this thing tracks further inland or out to sea and there could be some huge changes. And there will be lots of blowing snow.

2/25/2010 - Curly Q

2010-02-23T22:51:00.003-05:00

The NWS decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for most of the DC area, and I confess myself puzzled. So here's the set up, where I'm just going to get right down into meat and potatoes.

Model Output: It's all over the place. We have the more reliable North American Mesoscale (NAM) hardly giving the DC area a trace of snow. Wilmington gets maybe around 8-12 inches of very wet snow, and everybody gets wind. The outlier is in the Global Forecast Suite (GFS) which has DC getting several inches, but certainly not in the Warning criteria. Wilmington sticks to it with 8-12.

Personally this winter I trend towards the NAM.

The low pressure system is actually quite interesting and doesn't normally happen. We're going to have a low pressure heading up the southern tier of states to the coast. It'll move up the coast, move onshore (instead of out to sea) and sort of do a curly q over interior New York and Pennsylvania (thereby providing the primary axis of precipitation in that area). Then it'll move out to sea.

Analysis: Geez, I haven't much of a clue, I'm not going to lie. Let's put it this way. Southern Jersey looks like it could get around eight inches, right? Well mid to upper Jersey gets two feet. A very sharp gradient looks to be taking place where twenty miles means a significant difference.

So, what's going to happen in my opinion? Well, it's hard to argue with the NAM this far out, but I'm going to. Because I'm an idiot.

The trend this winter has been for systems to hug closer to the shore. The cold air is somewhat strong, but it's not so significantly strong to force the system so far offshore as the models currently depict. Interior Pennsylvania and New York get a blizzard. Everybody gets a hell of a lot of wind. Boston goes snow to rain (and a lot of it) before ending as snow. NYC follows a similar pattern, but more snow on the bookends and less rain sandwiched in the middle.

Remember, even twenty-five to fifty miles can make the difference between three inches and thirteen, or thirteen inches and thirty. And this thing is so powerful, and spinning up so much, there's just hardly any consensus on what this sucker is going to do. The only thing we do know is that it's gonna get windy.

So bearing that in mind, I think the low will be closer to the shore than currently depicted, and I think we might get a little more than currently predicted.

Probabilities anyone? Why not. I'm still keeping it kind of safe here for DC, but less so for Wilmington.

DC area:
Less than 2 inches: 35%
2-4 inches: 30%
4-8 inches: 25% (warning criteria)
8+ inches: 10%

Wilmington:
Less than 2 inches: 10%
2-4 inches: 15%
4-8 inches: 20%
8-12 inches: 30%
12+ inches: 25%

South and west of DC is going to be lucky to get above two inches. I hope to eat my words however. Wilmington and points north may see a blizzard warning at some point.

Please note I could be wildly off here. This is an extremely large and challenging system that's going to take a lot of effort to stay on top of. If things change, and they will, I'll let you know.

2/25/2010 - Confusion

2010-02-23T14:00:00.001-05:00

So I've been kind of out of sorts with regards to the weather recently. A string of 40ish degree days (and even one that came close to 50!) has caught me off my guard.

Shocking as it may seem to you, there was a string of three days where I didn't look at weather models. For this winter, that is probably a record of sorts.

I didn't bother posting anything about Monday after my last effort because I kind of saw that where we were heading was slop. And what we got was cold rain, which is easily the worst possible thing to receive in the winter. It is, however, a sign of where things will be heading within the next month so maybe I should acclimatize myself. Spring is coming.

With regards to coming events in the next couple of days, well there's some uncertainty and confusion. This system is going to be powerful. Snowmageddon Part II type powerful. Strong winds, heavy snow, all that good stuff.

However, most likely that is not the case for down here unless things change rapidly. Basically about 30-40 miles west of I-95 and north of Philly looks like it could see some substantial snow. Old Man Winter is making up for lost time having blessed the mid-Atlantic with enough snow, he now turns his gaze to the whiners in the northeast. Amusingly, it's more the interior northeast instead of the chief whiners in the Boston and NYC areas.

Actually, NYC could see a good amount of snow, Boston its right on the line of being heavy snow and heavy rain. I'm trending heavy rain right now for Boston right now.

So here's the breakdown. DC might still see some measurable snow out of this. There are a couple of outlier models suggesting we could see a few inches. The more reliable ones, however, have us getting little to nothing. Wilmington on the other hand stands a reasonably good shot at seeing more than several inches again. Let's call it 3-7 inches for Wilmington right now, with the possibility (looking at the outliers) for 10.

Much of this area as a whole is on the very edge of getting a lot of snow. This thing goes 50-75 miles west and DC is in for a world of hurt. It's possible, but not likely at this point.

The further south and west you go, the less snow you will see. The further south and east you go, the more rain you will see. If things change dramatically, I'll post it. Right now though I'm looking more towards next week as kind of our last hurrah this winter with regards to snow.

I was kind of bullish for the prospects of a snowy early March, but I'm kind of backing away from that.

Staying Trendy

2010-02-16T13:00:00.000-05:00

I took a few days off from posting, mainly because around this time of year just about everybody knows what it means when I spin off several posts a day. So I'm quite certain I was not missed.

I am like the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

You'll notice I didn't really mention much about the quick clipper we had. I did some personal analysis for Jen due to her big event yesterday, which was a nice change of pace. I'm not sure how close or far I was, given that the last day I could say anything was on Friday, but I think I got pretty close? Who knows.

Regardless, if there is one message I would like to pass on to the masses today, it is this: WINTER IS NOT OVER. Many of you could probably have come to this conclusion on your own given the vast quantity of snow outside. But don't be fooled by the melting. Just because it's melting does not mean reinforcements can't be called in.

Within the next couple of weeks, I'm tracking two different possibilities for snow. One is in the medium range, one is in the long range, and both are subject to change. I'm not going to mention the first until about three or four days out, mainly because I don't like to jinx things.

Speaking of the long range, I may craft a post about how March is still looking interesting for snow. The pattern we're in is still favorable, it's just that the ingredients need to come into play at the right time. Remember, the DC area has never had more than two 12+ inch snowfalls in one season.

2/10/2010 - Mea Culpa

2010-02-10T15:00:00.002-05:00

So I came in under what actually happened yesterday and today. As it turns out, the models correctly had things pinned about 72 hours out and just veered wildly after that point. For Baltimore to Philly, looking like it's going to be almost as good as last weekend, just windier (or about 20-30 inches). For DC and north, 12-18 inches looks like it's about right. For southern DC Metro, looks like 8-15 or so. Isolated areas will have had more due to banding, of course.

Blizzard warnings on tap all around, so don't go anywhere unless you've got to. For DCA and north it's actually been extended to 10 PM, south of DCA it's over by 7. I'll be somewhat surprised if it actually sticks around for that long in either location though.

I came in on the low end for this system by a good 4-6 inches (on average), but I did have the placement of the heaviest precipitation right. Not much consolation, but I'll take it.

Looking ahead over the next two weeks, it looks as if there's a shot at another two or three storms that could impact us. I'll refrain from mentioning our first opportunity until tomorrow or day after at the latest, but Jen, you'll want to pay close attention.

Things will probably not properly resolve themselves until after this system has thoroughly exited the area, hence the restraint.

2/9/2010 - Way Overdone?

2010-02-09T13:34:00.002-05:00

Seeing the latest data come in, I still don't see how the NWS is justifying a 10-20 range, not for DC. Still might be possible for Baltimore to Philly (including Wilmington), but not DC.

Therefore, just as a quick update, I'm lowering the amounts I issued last night.

DC Metro (includes Frederick): 5-10 inches, maybe some sleet.
North (and primarily east) of DC: 8-12 inches, straight up.
Wilmington, DE: 12-18 inches, straight up.
Harrisonburg: 4-8 inches.

I had a hunch last night that things were kind of high, but figured NWS was seeing something I wasn't. That still very well may be the case and I may come back with a mea culpa. But I'm just not seeing much over a foot for DC, and in many cases a lot less than that.

I hope I'm wrong.

2/9/2010 - Overdone?

2010-02-08T23:01:00.004-05:00

The NWS has issues a Winter Storm Warning calling for 10-20 inches around the general DC metro area. Here's the deal, I can see that happening. For Wilmington. Not for DC.

I'm just going to cut to the chase tonight, so without further ado...

Model Output: Southern stream energy moving up the coast drawing energy from the northern stream. Seen this pattern before? Yep. Still differences on timing and where they phase together. I personally think they phase a little bit later, but what do I know?

Regardless, the primary axis of precipitation is north and east of DC. I think it's those areas that could see the 10-20 inches. There's also some disagreement whether there's some sleet mixing in to keep accumulations down. The problem is, if there is some sleet mixing in, that would be FAR WORSE than if it was all snow.

Think of it this way. You've got two solid feet of snow. Get then get a half-inch crunchy layer of us making encasing it all down there. Then you get another six to eight inches of snow on top of that. How hard do you think that'll be to clean up? Yeah, a lot harder than ten straight inches of snow.

Analysis: I think the models are phasing things a little too early, and perhaps a little too far north. What's that mean? 10-20 inches is a bit much. Personally, for DC proper, I'm leaning more towards an 8-12 (if there's no mixing), or 5-10 (if there is some sleet). No matter what though, areas between Baltimore and Philly (including Wilmington) have the absolute best shot at getting the most snow. Perhaps as much as twenty inches.

The only real danger of mixing is going to be towards the beginning of the event. When things really get started in the evening, temperatures should drop rather quickly and it could change the ratios from a stately 10:1 to a more interesting 15:1 or so. Should make things rather interesting.

Among the greatest concerns is of the wind. There will be a wicked wind associated with this bad boy and it may cause blizzard-like conditions, so do be careful of that.

Probabilities? Glad you asked. I'm actually going to dispense with them tonight and just give a straight up prediction, reserving the right to change things tomorrow. Minor changes to the track will have a major impact on the forecast. To give you an idea, this thing goes 25 miles south, we could end up with 18 inches of snow. It goes 25 miles north, we get an inch of ice. Talk about variability.

DC Metro (includes Frederick): 8-12 inches, some sleet perhaps.
North (and primarily east) of DC: 10-15 inches, straight up.
Wilmington, DE: 12-18 inches, straight up.
Harrisonburg: 5-10 inches

I'm sorry if what's up there is a little incoherent. I've had a pretty damn long day. Meghan, I'm afraid no matter what happens you're going to be in the bullseye. Some models I've seen point to the possibility of over 20 inches for you, but I think that's a little high. Somewhere around your neck of the woods will (with 85% confidence) see the most out of this, hence my concern for you and the boys.

These predictions are lower than what the NWS is calling for, and I reserve the right to change it tomorrow due to the aforementioned possibility of a track change. I may throw down some very interesting statistics for your general consumption tomorrow or the day after.

2/9/2010 - Insult to Injury?

2010-02-07T18:04:00.004-05:00

Geez. We've got somewhere north of two feet of snow here. Enough snow that I can't make it more than a hundred feet from my house in my 4Runner with four-wheel drive. I have snowbanks on my driveway that come up to my chest.

In short, it's an awesome experience.

So, are you ready for more? Because if you're not, you'd better get ready. And as I was taking a nap from being outside trying to move that massive amount of snow, the NWS got the jump on me and issued a Winter Storm Watch.

That's right, it means a good shot at more than five inches. So here we go. Quick disclaimer, I haven't had a whole lot of time today, what with the digging, to do my usual amount of research.

Model Output: There's disagreement, as usual, amongst the models. The generally more reliable model is calling for a little less precipitation in the DC area, but also generally cooler temperatures. So basically, whatever falls has a good shot at being snow. The one that's a little less reliable is calling for as much as ten or twelve inches of snow mixed with a little sleet. Rain/snow line is closer, therefore more precipitation but more chance of mixing.

Analysis: Right now I have a hard time believing we'll get a foot or more. I really do. I can't write it off, but that hasn't been the pattern we've been in. And it looks like the two streams of energy coming together to create this bad boy are going to do so a little east and north of the DC area. Wilmington, however, might be in for it.

The reason I have a hard time with significant (more than ten inches) accumulation is because that's not the pattern we're in. Our pattern dictates big weekend systems with more minor mid-week systems. Granted, we had a historic event two days ago, which is just another reason I can't write it off as out of hand. But I'll be monitoring the situation throughout the day tomorrow and day after.

Another issue is just where the rain/snow line is going to be. There easily could be some sleet mixing in for those suburbs south of DC which would keep accumulations down. But I think it'll be just cold enough to keep it as mostly (if not all) snow.

Two sets of probabilities today, one for DC, one for Wilmington.

Washington DC (and surrounding metro areas, can safely include Harrisonburg and Frederick):
Nothing: 5%
1-4 inches: 20%
4-8 inches: 35%
8-12 inches: 30%
12+ inches: 10%

Wilmington, DE:
Nothing: 5%
1-4 inches: 10%
4-8 inches: 35%
8-12 inches: 30%
12+ inches: 20%

Edited @ 7:21: Tweaked the probabilities a wee bit higher.

2/6/2010 - Not Over Yet

2010-02-06T11:28:00.003-05:00

Accumulations this morning ranged from the more prosaic 15 inches at DCA to the altogether more impressive 25 inches in Centreville. I believe we were somewhere in the middle there.

So here's what's fun, it's not over yet. The snow is going to continue throughout the bulk of the day providing another oh, five to ten inches? Total accumulations will be in the 24-30 inch (and more) range.

I found it amusing that overnight the NWS lowered the Winter Storm Warning text to say only 18-24. I myself decided I would not follow suit. We can clearly see that this was what one might consider a Good Idea. It is another instance of not only my being right, but both the NWS and Brandon being wrong (or at least less right than me). To that end, Brandon, even through last night was calling for no more than twelve inches.

Be sure to rub it in for me, will you? And in an effort to toot my horn just a little bit more, I called this sucker back in the middle of January.

This storm truly is one for the ages. We probably will not see one to match it for another twenty or thirty years or so. to give some perspective, snow started accumulating in earnest around here by about 4:00 yesterday evening. By the time I went outside to go do my first round of snow removal, when I was done, there must have been something like eighteen or twenty inches. Well over an inch per hour.

And with these squalls moving through, we could see more one to two inch per hour snowfall rates, such that the general DC and surrounding areas should easily eclipse two feet. If you don't have to go anywhere, don't. If you're stuck somewhere, give me a call and I'll come get you.

So enjoy the forced time at home. Stay warm. Revel in the company of your loved ones. Times like these do not come often enough, and it's times like these that in my later years I know I will cherish, because I've already started.

2/6/2010 - It's Heeeere

2010-02-05T17:28:00.003-05:00

If you haven't looked out your window recently, I suggest you do. It's coming down like crazy out there, and I wouldn't expect it to let up until sometime tomorrow morning. That's not to say it'll end tomorrow morning, just, you know, let up.

Got a couple of more requests for updates, and I'm a slave to my people.

Looking at the latest soundings and model data, we're in for some potentially record breaking snowfall. The record at DCA for one storm is something like 28.7 inches. Yes, that could be broken. The soundings indicate the potential for upwards of 28 inches of snow (at a straight 10:1 ratio), and they have been quite consistent about that, which is quite impressive.

Temperatures that were hovering around (or slightly above) the freezing point earlier today have taken a dive, and there's not much hope for recovery. Overnight, you can expect the possibility of thundersnow. For those of you who have never experienced that, think snowfall rates of three to four inches per hour in decent sized bursts. With thunder. And lightning. And yes, it does come like that. Most areas will have well over a foot by the morning.

Looking out my window right now, I see a couple of inches. Let's do the math. After 7:00 or so tonight, snow will be falling in excess of one inch per hour. As the temperatures continue to drop, the snow will get lighter and fluffier, pushing the ratio of snow to liquid up from 10:1 to possibly 12 or 13:1. Those ratios definitely mean the single storm record is in jeopardy.

So what's it mean for total accumulations? I think the Weather service has it right. 20-30 inches, some spots will receive more based upon banding. This storm alone will be providing two seasons worth of snowfall to the DC and surrounding areas.

Also, winds will be pretty high as this system moves through, and don't be surprised if they put up blizzard warnings for tonight or tomorrow. A blizzard warning means winds of approximately 35 mph sustained for about three hours.

2/6/2010 - Nobody Beats the Blizz(ard)?

2010-02-04T19:30:00.005-05:00

I couldn't resist the cheesy title. Apologies for it, but it just had to be done. Getting awfully close to the main event. You could say we've moved into a DEFCON 1 scenario.

Doom is impending.

I had a chance to catch a couple of the local mets forecasts tonight; they were not entirely wasteful of my time. However, they offered no real new or earth-shattering information for either me or you. Ah well.

So here's the update.

Blizzard warnings for most of Delaware and southern Jersey on the shore. It would not surprise me in the slightest if these were extended to the DC Metro area, probably from Loudoun County eastward. Winds are pegged to be pretty strong, close enough to that 35 mph threshold for it to matter. A blizzard warning doesn't necessarily have to do with accumulations either, but chances are if it's blowing that hard while snowing, you're going to end up with a decent amount of snow, ya know?

Meghan, I don't know where you are specifically, but you very well may also fall under the warning at some point if you're not already. The closer to the coast you are, the windier it's going to get. However, the closer to the coast you are, the less accumulation you will get. It's an ocean water thing.

For everybody else, it's going to be epic, historic, whatever. At least 18-24 in the DC area, local amounts could (and almost certainly will) be higher. The latest liquid equivalents are pegged at 2.76 and 2.98 inches. That equates to, roughly, 27.6 and 30 inches, assuming a straight 10:1 ratio (which it will not be uniform) at DCA. I have some serious difficulty in believing that because no storm in recorded history has ever dumped that much there. Ever. Anecdotal evidence suggests it happened sometime in the late 1700s.

The NWS says amounts will probably be higher in the blue ridge, and I could see that. There's some evidence pointing at how that might not be the case, but who am I to argue? The bottom line is, somebody's got a good shot at ending up with 30 inches.

Yes, that was with a 3, and in the tens place no less.

Should I bother with Richmond? I'm not sure if I've got too many readers from down there. If any Richmonders want a special mention, let me know. My list of special areas to include in forecasts are: DC area (natch), Harrisonburg, Frederick, Wilmington, and VA Beach. If anybody else wants some loving, I daresay there is enough to go around. I am not unkind.

Looking ahead to Tuesday/Wednesday, still looks small with only a few inches. Erica, whoever told you 6-15 inches earlier was being a little...ambitious? Some of the models were showing the potential for up to 10 earlier this week, but looking beyond this storm is foolhardy at best given that the dynamics for this area will be changing dramatically.

Record notes: This will be only the third winter in recorded history with two storms producing more than 12 inches of snow in a season. The snowiest winter recorded for DC was back in 1898-1899 with 54.4 inches, and that record could be in danger this season. Incidentally, that was one of the other winters with two 12 inch storms.

There has never been a season in DC with more than two 12 inch storms.

Just thought of adding this at the bottom (only an hour after I posted). If you're looking for something warm and delicious to drink while watching those big fat snow flakes, I recommend following this link. Except you Brendan, because dying would be bad.

2/6/2010 - You Were Warned

2010-02-04T12:12:00.002-05:00

Things are coming together quite nicely now with regards to the forecasts and model output. There is, once again, some disagreement when it comes to timing, but that's really just semantics at this point. The snow is happening on 2/5 and 2/6. The NWS is leaning towards a slightly faster solution based upon what's happening right now and where the system is continuing to develop, so I see no reason to disagree.

I still kind of think it might come in a little slower, but my reasons for believing so are dwindling rapidly, much like Brandon's excuses for why we won't get a massive amount of snow. Sorry lad, I had to poke fun.

The only real thing to discuss with regards to the model output is that there is a difference in total accumulations. One says around 3" of liquid (30-35 inches of snow), and that's probably on the high side. I just can't see two and a half feet here in DC. Not to say I wouldn't love to, but I can't see it. It'd set some serious records though. The other says about 2.5" of liquid, or about 25-30 inches. That's more palatable.

But who knows? I could be wrong. Maybe we see only 18 inches. Or maybe we see 36.

What would I bet on? Two things. First, the I think the Saints win on Sunday. Second, I think we see 18 to 24 inches, and there will be spots that have more than 24 inches, perhaps up to 30. Those 30 inch spots will be isolated, dependent on banding, and probably at higher elevations. I'd be stunned if there were reports of 30 inches in the metro area.

18 to 24 is a solid bet for: Washington DC metro area, Frederick, Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, perhaps Fredericksburg, probably Baltimore, and Wilmington (DE). Richmond I think sees probably no more than a foot with some significant mixing going. Norfolk/VA Beach? Maybe a few flakes, maybe some ice pellets, but mostly rain (and a lot of it).

The timeline we're looking at, as alluded to above, is still in flux. But here's my take on it. Snow starts southwest to northeast. Harrisonburg and the valley will start early to mid morning. It's in the DC metro area no later than the early afternoon. Intensity will pick up through the late afternoon or evening hours with the possibility of a foot on the ground by midnight or 1 AM. Things will lighten up some Saturday morning before picking up in intensity once again Saturday afternoon. Snow comes to an end Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Saturday night is still about 60-66 hours out on the latest models, so there's still time for fluctuation. And if there is, you'll be among the first to know about it.

I have been asked by a couple of folks about prospects for next Tuesday and Wednesday. First things first, there's no way to tell this far out what's going to happen because this system has to move out first. Once this system is gone, a lot of the environmental variables will change, and the current snowpack will determine some of what's going to happen.

Having said that, preliminary indications are for a light to moderate event, probably in the 3-6 or 4-8 range. It could be a complete bust, or it could be a larger system. But our pattern for the mid-week systems has been relatively consistent: if anything falls, it's usually a 3-6/4-8 inch type system. I'm not thinking that will change just yet. DO NOT HOLD ME TO THOSE NUMBERS YET. We still have quite a bit to get through until then.

For example, blizzard-like conditions.

2/6/2010 - DEFCON 2

2010-02-03T22:39:00.003-05:00

Just an update from earlier today, not a full run-down. Judging by the title though, I assume you'll be able to tell which way I'm going with this. After the models did a little wiggle north, things are right back on track again for the DC area (as well as Harrisonburg, Fredneck, Wilmington) to get dumped upon.

In fact, Virginia has already declared a state of emergency, and this thing is still pounding Texas and Louisiana.

The really big differences in the models right now are in timing. So the only question is, will we have our first foot of snow by midnight Friday night, or before sunrise Saturday. I personally still like the slower solution, but I'm probably in the minority on this one. And who knows, I could easily be mistaken with regards to the timing.

Regardless, it looks like precipitation is done by Saturday evening. There appears to be, probably something like three quarters of the way through, an area where the snow will lighten up some before recommencing for one last push.

Accumulations right now are ranging from 18 inches (on the low end) to a little over two feet (on the high). There's still plenty of time for this to go up or down. It would, however, surprise me a little if it went down.

In many ways, this snowstorm is the antithesis to the one from last week. Last week's was really cold and tracked to the south. This one will be much closer to freezing and further north by a decent amount. There won't be insane snowfall ratios like last week. There will be big, fat, fluffy flakes though. And lots of 'em.

2/6/2010

2010-02-03T11:28:00.003-05:00

OK, here we go again. I only really need to say one thing to make all the snow lovers drool. Think back to 1996. January 1996.

Yes, that's the scope of what we're talking about is possible for this weekend. Will this event be bigger than what we had in December? I'd say that's probably going to be the case.

Model Output: Remarkable consistency, and it's been there for days. Low forms in the Gulf of Mexico and moves up through the southern US. It spawns a secondary low in NC which quickly takes over, gathering strength over the Atlantic and taking energy from the original low. I believe the scenario is called a 50/50 low?

The system begins to move northeast, gaining strength as it goes along, converging with cold high pressure to our north causing a crapload of snow and wintry mix.

Analysis: As I mentioned above, all of the models have shown a remarkable amount of consistency with this storm. The only areas where there have been questions have been with timing. One model gets things started Friday early afternoon, another much later on Friday. Where there's more agreement is in how this thing tracks and how much it dumps.

One of the other issues is the rain/snow line. There's less a question today compared with a couple of days ago with regards to where that rain/snow line is going to be. The ideal scenario is pretty much getting as close to it as possible without going over, kind of like spinning the big wheel on the Price is Right. Ideally you hit that $1.00, but if you get $0.90 or $0.95 you're probably doing well for yourself.

We won't hit that $1.00 mark, but we'll come pretty close. There's a shot during the middle of this where some sleet or freezing rain mixes in, and for those of you who enjoy getting days off, that is a good thing. In all of our largest and most major storms, like 1996 or 2003, there was some mixing. That makes it much harder for the crews to clear away the snow and ice from a storm that has it mixed in as opposed to a storm that is all snow. Fine, it keeps overall accumulations down by an inch or two, but when you're talking about the potential for more than 20 inches, well, who am I to begrudge an inch or two of snow for a crusty layer of sleet?

So let's get on with the probabilities then, eh? We'll get Norfolk/VA Beach out of the way and say you're not going to get much of anything. Might be some sleet and freezing rain, but I wouldn't hold out hope for a whole ton of snow. So sorry.

These probabilities apply to pretty much all of the areas I usually cover: DC, Fredneck, Wilmington, Harrisonburg. The usual.

Nothing: 0%
1-4 inches: 10%
4-8 inches: 20%
8-12 inches: 30%
12+ inches: 40%

I just realized that I basically incremented that by 10% for each level. Was not deliberate, I promise. And here's some artwork for you.

Double Your Pleasure

2010-02-02T13:53:00.003-05:00

Going to be a veritable one-two punch this week with regards to the snow. Just going to give a big synopsis with more details to come, probably tomorrow.

With regards to tonight, most of the DC Metro area is in a Winter Storm Warning. Short-range models are generally calling for a 3-7 inch type scenario. I'd say that's pretty solid, and school would be in doubt tomorrow. Look for the snow to start within the next couple of hours area-wide wherever it hasn't started already.

The altogether far more interesting event is this weekend, in what I am now dubbing Nikhil's birthday storm. Normally by this point the models back-off on things and cut the precipitation down some. That has not happened, not yet at any rate. And this system, far more than any other this winter thus far might actually pose some mixing issues.

Storms this winter typically have been trending further north of what has been called for by the models. If that were to hold true, the DC area would be in for a significant mix of sleet and snow. The upper levels of the atmosphere will be plenty cold enough, the question is at the surface, and there's a good amount of disagreement there. It can not be discounted as a possibility.

Generally speaking, it's looking like south of Fredericksburg will probably be rain or rain-to-mix. Sorry Terri, it looks as if you had your fun last weekend. I'm not ruling out a change though.

If the storm continues to follow it's present track, however, I believe the Blizzard of 2009 can easily be eclipsed. As of right now, it looks like an all (or mostly) snow event. DC, Fredneck/Leesburg, Harrisonburg, and Wilmington could reasonably expect a foot and a half, perhaps more. Two of the medium-range models have called for total liquid of 2-2.5 inches, which translates to about 20-30 inches of snow.

The timeframe, initially, is looking like Friday night to Saturday night or Sunday morning. I think that's a little fast and wouldn't be surprised to see it slow down to be more of a Saturday morning to Sunday afternoon affair.

We'll see what happens when the storm shifts into the short-range guidance. It's still really early. Below are some general probabilities for the weekend for all areas north of Fredericksburg.

Nothing: 10%
1-4 inches: 20%
4-8 inches: 25%
8-12 inches: 25%
12+ inches: 20%

I'm taking a cautious tone right now, but there's some potential there.

1/30/2010 - Shiftiness

2010-01-29T22:59:00.006-05:00

Weather doesn't sleep, and apparently neither do I. Latest stuff just came out, and it's an interesting mix. I had a couple of comments relayed to me with regards to the last forecast, and they shall be addressed below.

I'm going to try and make this short because it's meant to merely be an update from the previous post (even though I will probably fail). Really what's happening is the models are continuing to trend northward, a trend I happen to enjoy tremendously. But, this has a ripple effect on most of the forecasts.

Model Output: Trending north once again. For the nerds (Brendan, Brandon, Terri, etc.), 00Z NAM has and will continue to be the preferred solution. Basically blending what the NAM and GFS are giving me, but skewing NAM as the NAM has been king no matter what you say.

Liquid equivalents on NAM for Fairfax are bordering on 0.5", DCA closer to 0.35" - 0.4", IAD at 0.3", Leesburg bordering on 0.25", Fredneck just under, Harrisonburg probably at 0.7", VA Beach at 1.25", Richmond at over 1", Wilmington sandwiched between 0.1" and 0.25". GFS is under all of those values, ALL of them. Obviously cold enough at all locations, but that rain/snow line is inching awfully close to VA Beach. DC and North, multiply that bad boy by 15, Norfolk and Richmond by 10.

Analysis: A lot of the storms this winter have been overperforming, and I don't see why this one should be any different. DC Metro area suburbs are under a Winter Weather Advisory, I suspect that'll be upgraded to a Warning by the time all is said and done (but could be wrong). Advisories probably will be posted for Loudoun, Montgomery, PG, and Frederick around the same time. Everywhere south of Prince William is already under a Warning.

Snow will start overnight down south, early morning around DC, mid-morning further north (assuming it gets there). Heaviest stuff will be afternoon for DC (before and after south and north, natch).

Probabilities are interesting actually. I'm skewing most of them upwards for every area except VA Beach, and here's why: I'm worried about the system tracking too close to the coastline and some warm air working it's way in. That's also why I only skewed ever so slightly towards the 12" mark.

Bear in mind Terri, 6-12" includes the 10" mark, and I expect you will have at least that much. Perhaps even as much as 16" or 18", but I'm not prepared to bank it just yet. Richmond or just north of there could end up being the sweet spot, and I definitely see at least a foot in their future. Charlottesville will probably have more than Harrisonburg (sadly). Wilmington is proving to be quite challenging given the extremely tight gradient (ditto Leesburg/Fredneck). There could be a difference of two inches within 10 miles in any given location Fairfax county and north.

So, without further ado, let's break it down.

DC Metro (north of town will skew lower regardless of the final track):
Less than 3 inches: 10%
3-6 inches: 40%
6-12 inches: 40%
12+ inches: 10%

Harrisonburg:
Less than 3 inches: 10%
3-6 inches: 10%
6-12 inches: 45%
12+ inches: 35%

Leesburg/Fredneck:
Less than 3 inches: 35%
3-6 inches: 40%
6-12 inches: 20%
12+ inches: 5%

Wilmington, DE:
Less than 3 inches: 55%
3-6 inches: 35%
6-12 inches: 5%
12+ inches: 5%

VA Beach/Norfolk (you can toss Williamsburg and Richmond here as well without affecting percentages too much):
Less than 3 inches: 5%
3-6 inches: 10%
6-12 inches: 40%
12+ inches: 45%

And finally, as promised, artwork!

1/30/2010 - Livin on a Prayer

2010-01-29T16:50:00.003-05:00

OK, so this is getting nuts. Model output the past few runs has been trending north, which is good for some, actually good for most. Here's the deal though: this storm has a ridiculously sharp cut-off of precipitation. For those of you close to the edge, be careful, you may get hurt.

What the sharp cut-off means is minor variations, say of even as little as 25 miles north or south can mean the difference between getting nothing (south), getting six inches (current), or getting a foot (north). What's crazier is, the night before this thing is supposed to begin, there's still an intense amount of uncertainty for those living on the edge.

Model Output: As mentioned above, things have been trending north, which is good for DC, Harrisonburg, Richmond, and even Wilmington. If it gets much further north though, Norfolk/VA Beach could have some ice mixed in for good measure.

Temperatures will be quite cold up here, with it not getting much above the low 20s. That's going to make for really high snow ratios. For example, current model guidance has ratios at 27:1 for DCA. That would mean for every inch of liquid, it's 27 inches of snow (which is insanely high). I think you can safely toss that 27:1 out the window though, and for my own predictions I'm using a 15:1 ratio. Down in Richmond and VA Beach it'll be closer to a standard 10:1 ratio.

Analysis: I kind of teased it some just above. It's gonna be cold. That snow is gonna be fluffy. You might even be able to sweep it away (depending upon where you are). The low pressure has been trending slightly north, more importantly however the precipitation shield has been expanding northward as well. If this continues, it could be enough for Warning criteria even in the southern DC suburbs (at least five inches). It's still kind of early for that however, as you'll see with the predictions.

Richmond though looks to be the big winner here with this trend. North or south, they still get a good amount of precipitation. Even if it does go north and some ice mixes in down in VA Beach, Richmond stays all snow.

Wilmington, however, looks like it will not see much from this, if indeed anything. The models still disagree there, with one of 'em going for a couple of inches, the other none.

So, having said that, here we go with the probabilities!

DC Metro (north of town will skew lower regardless of the final track):
Less than 3 inches: 25%
3-6 inches: 45%
6-12 inches: 25%
12+ inches: 5%

Harrisonburg/CHO:
Less than 3 inches: 10%
3-6 inches: 10%
6-12 inches: 60%
12+ inches: 20%

Leesburg/Fredneck:
Less than 3 inches: 50%
3-6 inches: 40%
6-12 inches: 5%
12+ inches: 5%

Wilmington, DE:
Less than 3 inches: 70%
3-6 inches: 20%
6-12 inches: 5%
12+ inches: 5%

VA Beach/Norfolk (you can toss Williamsburg and Richmond here as well without affecting percentages too much):
Less than 3 inches: 5%
3-6 inches: 10%
6-12 inches: 40%
12+ inches: 45%

I'm going to avoid putting up any artwork just yet until the last run tonight, because there's still a part of me that isn't totally sold on this northward trend. We'll see in another six hours or so if these probabilities need to be tweaked.

1/30/2010 - Most Requested?

2010-01-28T13:30:00.001-05:00

Requests for forecast updates are coming fast and furious. I have a schedule and deadlines to keep people! Fortunately for you, I also have a schedule and deadlines with regards to forecasts.

I've been watching the data come in this morning (off and on) and my conclusions are much the same as yesterday: chaos once again reigns. So, let's look at some trends and see where things could head, shall we?

Model Output: Things are slowly starting to move a little bit more north. Whether it's a matter of the low pressure systems actually tracking further north, or the precipitation just extending a wee bit further north, I'm not sure. It's probably a little bit of both. The consensus though is that things are trending further north, which is good for people north of Fredericksburg, and slightly less good for Norfolk.

Richmond, the ungrateful souls, are still probably around the sweet spot or in the fringe. This one looks tailor made to keep them in the fray.

Analysis: No overall consensus has been reached between the model output though. Things still vary wildly from some light snow that may accumulate to a little under six inches. Regardless, Erica, your bet is still looking quite safe. The more reliable models lean towards a 3-4 inch event south of town, a 2-3 inch event north of town (with more and less the further you get from DC, respectively). I still think it's being underplayed a little, but I'm losing confidence there. It is eroding at a remarkable clip.

I know I keep saying I'll know more later, but that's just because there has been a remarkable amount of uncertainty with this system. We went from looking at a couple of feet, to nothing within a matter of twenty-four hours. Twenty-four hours after that and we're looking once again at perhaps as much as six inches.

So, it's time to stand up and take it on the chin with some probabilities:

DC Metro (north of town will skew lower regardless of the final track):
Less than 3 inches: 35%
3-6 inches: 45%
6-12 inches: 15%
12+ inches: 5%

Harrisonburg/CHO:
Less than 3 inches: 15%
3-6 inches: 30%
6-12 inches: 40%
12+ inches: 15%

Leesburg/Fredneck:
Less than 3 inches: 45%
3-6 inches: 40%
6-12 inches: 10%
12+ inches: 5%

Wilmington, DE:
Less than 3 inches: 50%
3-6 inches: 35%
6-12 inches: 10%
12+ inches: 5%

VA Beach/Norfolk (you can toss Williamsburg and possibly Richmond here as well without affecting percentages too much):
Less than 3 inches: 10%
3-6 inches: 20%
6-12 inches: 35%
12+ inches: 35%

For your edification, I'm also attaching the latest artwork, courtesy of the GFS. As mentioned above, I still feel like those values may be underplayed some, especially further north where I'm thinking snow ratios will be a little higher. The snowman boxers failed me yesterday too. Sad times.

1/30/2010 - Suppression Depression

2010-01-27T13:30:00.000-05:00

Remember all that wonderful, nice and pretty model continuity we had? Might as well be a figment of the imagination now, because everything's just gone haywire! Even the NWS forecasters are throwing their hands up in confuzzlement. It's that bad.

So before we get into the meat and potatoes, let's recap what we know: nothing.

Nobody can blame me for not telling the truth.

At this point there are two primary features to be concerned with. They are the Northern and Southern streams of energy. The Southern stream is bringing the precipitation, the Northern the cold air. The question is going to be, which one wins?

If they phase together, it means great and beautiful things. If they don't, well that's where the track really matters a lot. So, what is about to follow is an analysis of model output, my interpretation, and probabilities. Ready?

Let's go.

So as previously mentioned, the models are all sorts of wonky. One of them is starting the trend north. Notably, it's the one that started trending north first for the 12/19/2009 storm, but it has had its share of mistakes since then. If we take that one as truth and it were to pan out, we're talking probably around the vicinity of 4-8 inches for the immediate DC metro area and south, less the further north you go.

The other extreme is the same one that had us at two feet a day and a half ago. It has gone to giving us a coating to maybe a couple of inches. North of DC gets zilch. Zip. Nada. Last night's run backed off that solution some, but it came back with a wicked vengeance today.

The one that could be considered in the middle still even leans towards keeping accumulations light, say in the 2-4 inch range. Couple this output with the fact that things keep slowing down, and you have a tremendous amount of uncertainty.

The "lesser" models also run the gamut, although generally are on the more generous side with regards to precipitation. One of 'em has us at over a foot, still. The others generally still cluster around the 6-12 range with a couple less than that. CHAOS REIGNS!

Interpretation time. Really it's all sorts of fucked up. I haven't seen one system causing this much of a forecasting headache in a couple of years actually. And even the last couple of years you could kind of get a read on the situation by about this time because of larger factors. The more reliable major models are hinting at a minor to non-event. I still don't buy it. And it's not because I don't want to either.

For reasons 95% of my readers won't give a damn about, some of what the models are putting out just doesn't quite add up, especially with the initial locations of where this low pressure system is forming. This is actually a very important point based upon how these numerical models work: if your starting data is faulty, the whole run of statistical analysis is borked up. It is a curiosity, to be sure.

Probabilities? Why not. I'm going to have to break this down into multiple sections due to the vast areas I've got to cover. At last check, VA Beach, Harrisonburg/Charlottesville, DC Metro area, Leesburg/Fredneck, and Wilmington DE. Three states, all of them denial. And since blogger won't let me add in a table, it's gonna get ugly (and long!). So find your geographic area and examine the probabilities.

DC Metro (because I love you the most):
Less than 3 inches: 35%
3-6 inches: 35%
6-12 inches: 20%
12+ inches: 10%

Harrisonburg/CHO (because I love you second most):
Less than 3 inches: 30%
3-6 inches: 30%
6-12 inches: 25%
12+ inches: 15%

Leesburg/Fredneck:
Less than 3 inches: 40%
3-6 inches: 35%
6-12 inches: 15%
12+ inches: 10%

Wilmington, DE:
Less than 3 inches: 40%
3-6 inches: 40%
6-12 inches: 15%
12+ inches: 5%

VA Beach/Norfolk (you can toss Williamsburg and possibly Richmond here as well without affecting percentages too much):
Less than 3 inches: 15%
3-6 inches: 30%
6-12 inches: 35%
12+ inches: 20%

For VA Beach/Norfolk, the closer you are to the coast, the greater chance you'll have more sleet mixing in with your snow, and the cutoff could be dramatic. But for Norfolk and VA Beach proper, those are the probabilities I'm sticking with for today.

Lots of variability, and it's going to be an interesting one to watch. I put on my snowman boxers today to coax some goodness out of the atmosphere. I recommend you do the same (provided you have the means).

1/30/2010 - Suppression

2010-01-26T11:00:00.001-05:00

Hot off the presses, the latest models are actually coming out as we speak, but I've seen what I need to from them to put an update out. The models have gone to becoming badly suppressed with this run.

All but one of the major models (the DGEX being the exception) are pushing this thing south. DC and south would be in the 4-8 range if this thing verifies. Draw a line from Harrisonburg to Charlottesville to Fredericksburg and you're talking more like 6-10. Richmond closer to a foot with VA Beach/Norfolk perhaps more than that (which would be almost stunning).

This shift south is not unexpected by any means, as it's showing an amplification of the cold further north. If the models continue to show this type of trend into tomorrow night or Thursday morning, then I'll be more concerned about our prospects. As it stands now, here are the updated probabilities:

Less than 3 inches: 25%
3-6 inches: 40%
6-12 inches: 25%
12+ inches: 10%

You'll notice I'm staying on the conservative side still. Basically an even chance that we'll get nothing (or close to it) as we will of 6-12. I'm probably not going to show much confidence until tomorrow night or Thursday morning. Last calls will come out Friday around noon about our prospects.

I still think we'll get something, it's just a matter of how much. And again, it could still be nothing at all.

Timing Shift

2010-01-26T07:34:00.004-05:00

The models continue to come into better agreement with a significant event for this weekend, but the timing is being tweaked. Whereas previously the thinking was onset for Thursday evening, we'll shift that forward 24 hours to Friday evening. Accumulations, however, are still looking pretty solid.

The forecast graphics that I've been putting up have been pointing towards an 18+ inch event. Generally speaking, that's still a lot of what I'm seeing, and there is still a very real possibility we'll see it. The forecast track is still to the south, such that the heaviest accumulations will occur between Stafford and Petersburg (including the areas of Charlottesville and Harrisonburg) with a sharp cut-off south of there.

I don't think we're in line for another 18+ event just yet, but I think I might be able to make that call with a lot more confidence in another 24-48 hours. Right now I'm leaning towards a foot to maybe a foot and a half. 18+ is still a bit much to hope for this far out.

1/29/2010 - Incoming?

2010-01-25T20:52:00.004-05:00

Latest model came out and predictably shifted things north. This run is a little less reliable than those that come out at 11:30 AM and PM, but worth noting nonetheless in that it fits in with the same pattern.

I would be a little more skeptical of our prospects for the end of the week right now if there weren't such consensus among the major models. Much can still change since we're a little over three days out, and at this point I'd say the greatest danger is this thing being suppressed south. However, we've seen this pattern before during this very winter, and I think once again the models are overplaying the prospect.

Here's the most recent prediction of snowfall, to whet your appetites.

Those of you following along at home will notice we're rather firmly in the 18+ inch range for snow. I'm leaving my probabilities unchanged from earlier today because I'm taking the cautious approach. I'm going to need to continue to see some consistency among the major models and, most importantly, the scenario has to make sense.

Some ground rules moving forward for this event: probabilities will be updated in the afternoons generally unless something huge happens. If and when stuff happens, I will obviously be all over it. If there is a particular area you would like addressed (like Meghan in Wilmington, Jen in Harrisonburg, MTK in VA Beach, Aaron in Fredneck) let me know.

Incidentally, speaking of MTK in VA Beach, you could see a crapload of sleet from this sucker...almost a half inch of straight up ice with snow mixed in at times. For those of us who should see almost all if not all snow, not seeing anything too windy, just the potential for a really heavy snowstorm. So we could probably write off blizzard criteria right now.

And Again...

2010-01-25T13:00:00.002-05:00

I think it actually hit close to 65 degrees today, which is pretty damn warm for January. Since it hit that point (in the morning no less!) the temperatures have been dropping, and they will continue to do so.

Right into the snowstorm we might have this weekend.

Yes, I said it. I also called it weeks ago when I said we might see some action around the end of the month. I continue to stick by my next prediction of another mid-month big storm (looking at possibilities for the 5th right now, but let's not get ahead of ourselves).

The pattern we're entering into is going to be a snowy one, kicked off by this weekend. Thus far the models seem to be in pretty darn good agreement that there's a stream of energy coming from the south and it's going to ride up the coast. Usual questions of track and timing persist, and once again this far out, the thinking is that of suppression by the cold high to our north keeping places like Fredericksburg and Richmond in the sweet spot.

You will recall I mentioned such things weeks ago prior to the Blizzard of 2009 (or, as Brendan would call it, Snowpocalypse 2009). Well, a very similar scenario is building up, but I'm not going all in just yet. However, I will tease you with a map of accumulated snowfall through 120 hours (which is a little more than halfway through the event) as depicted by one of the medium-range models.

Yes, that does depict a wide swath of 12-24 inches of snow, with the higher amounts to our south. Yes, that should look really familiar to you. No, I do not believe this is actually going to happen, because it's WAY too soon.

What the models will do right now is they're going to start shifting the track further north, until it's perhaps a little too far north, then they'll shift back south before finally arriving at the proper solution. I don't know why, I just know how they act. The ingredients are there. Cold high pressure located upstate New York/Great Lakes and an active southern stream of energy. Much potential.

Breakdown of probabilities this far out is kind of like throwing darts with my eyes closed. But, why not? It's not like I'm a professional or anything. The following probabilities are for the usual areas (Harrisonburg, Charlottesville, IAD, DCA, DC metro area, and even Wilmington, DE).

Less than 3 inches: 35% (yes, it's that high because it's 4 days out)
3 -6 inches: 30%
6 - 12 inches: 25%
12+ inches: 10%

I'm skewing on the low end right now because, once again, despite previous posts, to get another huge storm like this in the same season is just weird. It doesn't happen like this. After the Blizzard of 2009, I proclaimed that storm a once every five or ten year storm. I'm not saying we're going to have another so soon, but, the ingredients are there.

They [the ingredients] are also there for a huge letdown (which still could happen!). It could still be a blank.

Holmes

2010-01-20T23:34:00.002-05:00

Lisa and I had the fortune to be able to go see Sherlock Holmes over the weekend. To provide a very succinct review, I thoroughly enjoyed it. Lisa liked it, but I enjoyed it very much so. We'll get into the hows, whys and what have yous momentarily of course. Unfortunately, much of it may contain spoilers, and therefore I shall attempt triage.

The characters on the whole really, absolutely drive this movie. There's no doubt. For example, if there's no Robert Downey Jr. as Holmes, the movie is not what it should be. Jude Law to a lesser extent. Mark Strong played his part well (as Lord Blackwood). Nothing terribly memorable, but useful nonetheless.

Rachel McAdams was, in essence useless. Her character, Irene Addler, was puffed up to play a greater important than she actually has in canon. And really her link is to any possible subsequent showing (yes that has been broached)

Lisa complained that there wasn't enough story to really try and propel things forward. I disagreed, I thought there was enough of one if you knew Holmes. I further impressed myself to be no more than one or two steps behind Holmes, and in a couple of instances, even ahead of the old chap.

For a Holmes purist (like myself) I expected to be disappointed. I shoved many of those scruples aside, determined to see what Mr. Ritchie had to offer me. I left absolutely elated and in fact, it's one of my new favorite movies (at least for this year). The chemistry that's there in most aspects if just quite impressive. There's enough story to follow along with, but only if you have Holmes and Watson to shepherd you along with their larger than life personalities.

But what was among the most impressive for me was, as a bit of a stickler for detail, just how much of the detail they attempted to incorporate into the story. Damn impressive.

Anyway it's a movie I'd have zero qualms seeing in a theater another couple of times to pick up all the small things I've missed. It's that good. And I enjoyed it that much. Others may and can disagree, but I'd give it between an 8.5 and 9 out of 10.

Coming Soon: Brrrrrr

2010-01-20T12:00:00.000-05:00

Minor event coming within the next couple of days. A quick rundown of what to expect is maybe some light scattered stuff tonight, but nothing to write home about. The reason for that is a stronger than expected cold high pressure to our north, which will actually come in handy for Thursday and Friday.

Speaking of Thursday and Friday, I'd say you can expect the precipitation to start out as rain. Yes, rain. Then it'll switch over to some combination of freezing rain, sleet and snow. The longer it lasts into Friday, the greater the chance it'll switch back over to rain, but that shouldn't happen until later in the morning on Friday.

The one area of concern I have is with regards to accumulations. There should be a decent amount of stuff falling from the sky, and consequently that is not the concern. The concern is actually more with ground temperatures. I think the NWS might overstate any potential accumulations given that the ground temperatures will be kind of on the warmer side.

Looking forward, we're (so far) on track for the end of month cool down, and it could be significant once again. I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll have at least one major (possibly historic?) snowfall in February, probably towards the middle of the month. There may also be a few other more minor events, but I think there's a good shot looking at the climatology of the situation that we could be in for something good.

Please bear in mind that long-range forecasting is extremely iffy, and I'm just reading the signs as they are right now. And what I'm reading off of those signs is it's going to get cold and snowy next month. Yay.

Weather Education (and Outlook) Time!

2010-01-14T12:00:00.000-05:00

As previously predicted, we're experiencing above average temperatures! When was the last time you remember it being over 40 degrees before 10 AM? With a couple of possible exceptions, temperatures should get to at least 40 degrees for the next two weeks or so.

Quite the turnaround, no?

Don't get used to it though, winter is by no means gone. Looking at the long-term indicators, and I use the phrase long-term in a meteorological sense (as opposed to a climatological sense, which I'll discuss at a later date), we're in a very brief respite. I provide for your consumption an image below of which will mean absolutely nothing to you until I explain it.

If, however, you had absolutely zero interest in weather patterns and want a generic outlook based upon the knowledge I am about to throw down in this bitch, scroll to the bottom. Go ahead, nobody's looking, you can do it if you want to. Just know that with each click as you get closer to the bottom of the page, not having read the veritable bounty of information contained therein, you are responsible for the clubbing of dozens of baby seals.

Having said that, what you see in this composite set of charts is the outlooks for three of the four major oscillations for the northern hemisphere: the North American Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacifi/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA).

The fourth one that's not listed is the one everybody knows about: El Niño (which is Spanish for...the Niño). El Niño is in a weak positive state, which, generally speaking, means for a wetter than normal winter (as it's winter that El Niño has the most impact) for the southeast and east coast. A stronger El Niño means a more pronounced track to the southeast, and much wetter conditions.

Anyway, getting back to the NAO, AO and PNA. I'm not going to get into too much of how those oscillations do what they do because that's a lot more detail than approximately 98.42% of you want. But there are two states to those patterns, positive and negative. Seems simply enough, right?

Well, when there's a negative NAO, it basically acts as a dam up over the arctic allowing all this cold air to spill down over the eastern US and parts of Europe. The normal west-east pattern is disrupted. When the NAO is positive, the west-east pattern is amplified and no cold air is able to make it down. This is typically when I am most sad.

A negative AO acts in a similar fashion. Without getting into semantics, one of the big differences is where the highs and lows are placed. However, with a negative AO, once again that cold air plunges southward and has a more profound impact temperature-wise across a greater cross-section of the US than the NAO. Once again, a positive AO keeps that cold air locked up north and flowing in a west-east pattern in the upper latitudes. A positive AO also causes much sadness in my house.

The PNA has a little less to do with temperature and more to do with storm patterns. A positive PNA causes a huge ridge to form over the Pacific Northwest, and a huge trough to form over the eastern half of the US allowing storms to dive into the gulf and ride right up the coast. A negative PNA basically shifts this pattern westward by a few hundred to a couple thousand miles (depending upon severity). A positive PNA is also associated with El Niño while a negative PNA is associated with La Niña.

So, taking what we've learned about the NAO, AO and PNA, and combining it with the chart above tells us several things. First, we had a lot of factors come together in a perfect storm of sorts to cause a crapload of cold weather. The NAO is strongly negative, the AO was at near historic levels of negativity. The PNA was strongly positive at the perfect time, which combined with the strongly negative NAO and AO to cause us an epic snowstorm.

Instead of looking into the past however, let us look into the future. The NAO, after rising to a near neutral state is forecast to go moderately negative again. That means cold for the eastern seaboard. The AO, after achieving neutral to slightly positive status is forecast to go strongly negative once again, meaning ridiculous amounts of cold over the eastern half of the US. The PNA is going to peak this weekend (which, unsurprisingly is going to provide us with a storm, although it's probably rain), dip to a weak negative state, then climb back into moderately positive state.

That moderately positive PNA just so happens to coincide with some negativity in the AO and NAO. And, if you actually read all that crap up top, you'll know that means we could be in for another decent sized snow storm around the end of this month or beginning of next month. That is assuming of course the above forecast values hold, and the trend has been in that direction.

Thawing

2010-01-11T12:00:00.002-05:00

Quick outlook on the week, and a peek ahead to next week too.

A thaw. It's coming, and a bit more definitive now than it was even just last week. This week should be mostly clear. Chance of some flurries tonight from a moisture-starved clipper diving in from Alberta, but nothing at all to write home about unfortunately. After that, well, temperatures will get downright seasonal. What's that mean? Low to mid 40s!

I know, you're shocked, but we should have a couple of days this week where the temperatures will moderate to average levels. Hell, southern Florida is going to be back in the 80s by the weekend (whereas last weekend, north Florida had snow and my sister-in-law reported sleet in TAMPA). Last week, generally speaking, Greenland was warmer than Florida, as was Anchorage.

This weekend things could get interesting again with a system moving up the coast. The usual timing and track questions persist. It hits us just right, we get socked with a foot of snow. It hits us just wrong, we get all rain. It doesn't hit us at all, and it's just cold. And this system is really the last shot at any measurable snow for a week or two.

Want to know why? Because after this system departs, by the end of next week we could see temperatures in the 50s, and, maybe even touching 60? Whaaaaaaaat? It's crazy talk, I know. But, I've been saying for weeks now that the last half of January was going to involve some thaw, and it's looking like I'm going to be right. And I like being right, so I wanted to point out the thaw, and therefore my overall sense of rightness (not to be confused with righteousness).

Don't get too comfortable though. By the end of the month, we're going to head back into a colder pattern with more chances for snow storms. I'm thinking February, possibly even into early March should be very interesting for those who love snow.