1/11/2011: Snowhole Edition at 11:00 PM

Looking at some of the satellite imagery from the Boxing Day storm was depressing. I'd show it to you but I just don't have the heart to pull it up and look at it again. From what I remember, the entire eastern seaboard north of South Carolina was white except for a massive hole centered right around DC. It broke my heart.

No, in fact it did worse. Not only did it break my heart, but it took the pieces, gathered them in a neat pile, put them into a blender and pureed. Then it went right down the drain.

So even though I've been watching this particular event for the past week, I haven't said anything about. Primarily because I'm just not at all convinced we're going to get anything significant. I'm not even sure I'm willing to commit to an inch.

Will it snow? Yes.

The setup is something like this: two low pressure systems coming across the country. One is riding the northern jet, the second on the southern jet. The key is where do they meet up and get busy. If they do their thing off the coast of Hattaras, we're in business. If they hook up off Jersey (like currently projected) we'll be lucky to get three inches.

Currently, I lean towards the latter.

The issue is that this winter is pretty much entirely unpredictable. The pattern, and I'm a big believer in patterns, has been formation too far north and off the coast. New York and Boston make out big time (AGAIN), and we get screwed.

The southern jet system is actually dumping more snow over the deep south than they have any right to expect. I find it extremely difficult to see that quite literally 65-70% of the land area east of the Mississippi has seen measurable, decent snow and all we've got is a dusting.

Honestly, I don't have the heart to put out probability of precipitation. I think we get more than an inch, but probably not a whole lot more. I hope it changes.

This is probably as demoralized I've been during a winter. I looked up the five stages of grief last night (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance). I'm still at anger, but I'm working my way towards bargaining. The words "I'm ready for spring" almost came out of my mouth yesterday.

Almost.